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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - March 11, 2013
 

*** Forecast Note - 4 March: Welcome to the 2013 CDM forecasts. Forecasts begin with a source reported in the sentinel plot in Miami-Dade County, FL. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 4 March: First Report from FL. CDM has been reported on multiple hosts in the sentinel plot in Miami-Dade County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***   

 

Regional Weather: Lower Southeast

Unsettled with showers. A frontal system will move through the region early this week. Expect increasing clouds today. Showers now just to the west will progress from west to east with time. The heavier rain will occur toward the mainland areas Monday with lesser amounts over the FL peninsula Tuesday. Highs in the 60s and 70s. Lows mostly 50s and 60s tonight, cooling to 30s to 50s Tuesday night. 


OUTLOOK:

Overview: Unfavorable conditions Monday; mixed conditions southern FL Tuesday. Today's event moves NNW but with little potential impact. Tuesday's event tracks NNE. Partly cloudy skies and a chance of showers are forecast for the source area and along the forecast pathway.   

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, March 11

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, March 12

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southeast FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - March 8, 2013
 

*** Forecast Note - 4 March: Welcome to the 2013 CDM forecasts. Forecasts begin with a source reported in the sentinel plot in Miami-Dade County, FL. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 4 March: First Report from FL. CDM has been reported on multiple hosts in the sentinel plot in Miami-Dade County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***   

 

Regional Weather: Lower Southeast

Dry with a warming trend. High pressure centered to the north will govern the weather along the Eastern Seaboard. Sunny skies and sometimes breezy conditions are expected in our region of interest through the weekend. No rain is forecast until early next week, when a frontal system will impact the eastern U.S. Highs in the 60s and 70s becoming mostly 70s by Sunday. Lows in the 30s and 40s warming into the 40s and 50s. 


OUTLOOK:

Overview: Unfavorable conditions for epidemic spread. Transport events move to the southwest Friday and Saturday, west on Sunday. All events will encounter unfavorable conditions for epidemic spread.  

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, March 8

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, March 9

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, March 10

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - March 6, 2013
 

*** Forecast Note - 4 March: Welcome to the 2013 CDM forecasts. Forecasts begin with a source reported in the sentinel plot in Miami-Dade County, FL. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 4 March: First Report from FL. CDM has been reported on multiple hosts in the sentinel plot in Miami-Dade County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***   

 

Regional Weather: Lower Southeast

Breezy, cool, and dry. A strong late-winter weather system impacting the mid-Atlantic will drag a cold front through southern FL. A few showers may occur today near the front. High pressure over the central U.S. is building into the region. Quite cool with highs in the 50s and 60s, lows in the 30s and 40s.


OUTLOOK:

Overview: Unfavorable conditions for epidemic spread. Events move east today, south on Thursday ... away from other growing regions. Only increased cloudiness and a very slight chance of showers are forecast near the source. 

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, March 6

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, March 7

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - March 4, 2013
 

*** Forecast Note - 4 March: Welcome to the 2013 CDM forecasts. Forecasts begin with a source reported in the sentinel plot in Miami-Dade County, FL. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 4 March: First Report from FL. CDM has been reported on multiple hosts in the sentinel plot in Miami-Dade County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***   

 

Regional Weather: Lower Southeast

Showers moving into the region on Tuesday. High pressure now centered over FL will give way to a strong cold front and associated showers on Tuesday. Highs in the 50s and 60s Monday, 50s to 70s on Tuesday. Lows in the 30s and 40s tonight, 30s to 50s Tuesday night.


OUTLOOK:

Overview: Unfavorable conditions for the early-week transport events. Events out of southern FL curl southwest on Monday and trek to the ENE on Tuesday. Sunny skies are expected during each event. No rain expected while the events are near land. 

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, March 4

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, March 5

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - November 9, 2012
 

*** Forecast Note - 9 November: Today's forecasts will conclude the 2012 CDM forecasting season. We hope the forecasts and other information on the website have aided everyone in the management of another active disease season. Please do not hesitate to contact a member of our staff if you have any questions or comments! TK ***

*** Epidemic Update - 2-9 November: No new reports or updates. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***   

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Mostly dry with a warming trend; showers TX / MS Valley Sunday. High pressure will rule the weather this weekend for most areas, with sunny to partly cloudy skies and little to no rain. A frontal system now in the western U.S. will move into the central U.S. with time, spreading showers into TX and the lower MS Valley on Sunday. Highs mostly in the 60s and 70s warming to the 70s and 80s by Sunday. Lows 30s and 40s East with 50s and 60s elsewhere.


OUTLOOK:

Overview: Unfavorable conditions dominant; increased risk south-central areas on Sunday. Nearly all transport events are benign this forecast period. The notable exceptions are the events out of TX and southern LA on Sunday. Increasingly favorable conditions will produce Low to Moderate Risk for the LA events and High Risk near the TX source. All other events will encounter unfavorable conditions for epidemic spread. 

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, November 9

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, November 10

Low Risk to cucurbits near the TX source. Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, November 11

HIGH Risk to cucurbits near the TX source, tapering to Low later in the event. Low to Moderate Risk in LA and southwest MS. Minimal Risk other areas.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2012

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