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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, October 23, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 18 October: First report from IL. CDM has been confirmed in Kankakee County, IL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 13 October: First reports from TN and MO. CDM has been confirmed in Cocke County, TN; and Cole County, MO. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

An unsettled period. Two cold fronts merge as they sweep through eastern North America. Widespread rain and showers accompany the front(s) as they press toward the East Coast. Drying begins in many areas on Tuesday, though rain will persist in the Great Lakes near an intensifying low pressure area. Highs from the 50s to 80s and lows from the 40s to 60s, with a big cooling trend into midweek.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible during a flurry of slightly favorable to mixed weather. Unfavorable conditions continue to be dominant. Some disease development is possible in parts of FL and TX, plus a few other areas during Sunday's transport events. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, October 23

Moderate Risk in FL except the western panhandle, southern and eastern GA, SC, eastern NC, eastern VA, eastern MD, DE, and southern NJ. Low Risk for cucurbits in the western FL panhandle, eastern AL, northwest GA, western and central NC, central and western VA, northeast TN, WV, KY, IN, OH, southern MI, southern ON, all but northern NY, PA, central and northern NJ, and southern New England. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, October 24

Moderate Risk for central and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, eastern KY, southern OH, western WV, eastern NC and VA, eastern MD, DE, far eastern PA, NJ, southeast NY and Long Island, and southern New England. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, October 20, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 18 October: First report from IL. CDM has been confirmed in Kankakee County, IL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 13 October: First reports from TN and MO. CDM has been confirmed in Cocke County, TN; and Cole County, MO. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Dry weather, chance of showers east-central U.S. by Sunday. High pressure and dry weather are the hallmarks of this weekend's weather. A cold front pushes east of the Rockies on Saturday. Showers will occur in the central and then east-central U.S. late Saturday into Sunday. Warm with highs mostly 70s and 80s, lows mostly 40s to 60s, cooler temperatures behind the front.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Unfavorable conditions continue to be dominant. Some disease development is possible in parts of FL and TX, plus a few other areas during Sunday's transport events. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, October 20

Moderate Risk in southern FL and near the eastern TX source. Low Risk for cucurbits in central FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, October 21

Moderate Risk for southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in central FL, western MS, and east-central TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, October 22

Moderate Risk for FL, southwest AL, and southern MS. Low Risk for cucurbits in northeast MS, AL except the southwest, southern GA, southern SC, northeast MO, western KY, eastern IL, IN, southern MI, and northwest OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, October 18, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 18 October: First report from IL. CDM has been confirmed in Kankakee County, IL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 13 October: First reports from TN and MO. CDM has been confirmed in Cocke County, TN; and Cole County, MO. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Dry weather. High pressure centered over the eastern U.S. is the dominant weather feature. Skies will be sunny to partly cloudy with little to no chance of rain. Onshore flow may promote some showers in parts of FL and TX. Highs in the 60s to 80s, lows in the 40s to 60s, with a warming trend.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Almost all transport events involve unfavorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition. Some localized to short-range spread is possible near the FL sources and in southern TX. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, October 18

Moderate Risk in central and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, October 19

Moderate Risk for southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in central FL and deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, October 16, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 13 October: First reports from TN and MO. CDM has been confirmed in Cocke County, TN; and Cole County, MO. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 6 October: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Simpson County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Transition to an extended dry period. Cold front reaching from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico passes through eastern and southern North America Monday and Tuesday. Scattered showers will occur in the eastern states on Monday and the far Southeast on Tuesday. All other regions will see sunny, dry weather as high pressure re-establishes itself. Wide range of temperatures is expected with highs from the 50s to 80s, and lows from the 30s to 50s with some 60s and 70s far South.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible, but chances decreasing. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions surround the transport events of interest, those events being the ones coming out of the Southeast and coastal mid-Atlantic. Risks are being held down by cool to cold temperatures that are occurring outside of the South. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, October 16

Moderate Risk on the FL peninsula, in southern GA, and southern SC. Low Risk for cucurbits in the FL panhandle, southeast AL, eastern SC and NC, eastern VA, eastern MD, DE, southeast PA, and southern NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, October 17

Moderate Risk for central and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, October 13, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 13 October: First reports from TN and MO. CDM has been confirmed in Cocke County, TN; and Cole County, MO. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 6 October: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Simpson County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Drier weather with showers some areas. High pressure wedges into eastern North America, sandwiched between a dying front in the Southeast and another cold front in the Great Lakes / central U.S.. The weather will be largely dry, with showers possible in various portions of (mainly) the East and North. The chance of showers increases on Sunday for many locations as the cold front in the central U.S. moves eastward. Highs mostly 60s to 80s, low mostly 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible. The scenarios for transport and deposition of airborne spores change from region to region and day to day within regions. Risks vary from mininal to moderate, concentrated near the known sources. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, October 13

Moderate Risk in central and southern FL, southeast GA, eastern NC, far eastern VA and MD, DE, and southern NJ. Low Risk for cucurbits in western MA, CT, Long Island, southeast NY, northern NJ, eastern PA, central MD, VA, central and western NC, northern SC, southwest GA, southern AL, the FL panhandle, and after deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, October 14

Moderate Risk for eastern NC and VA, eastern MD, DE, southern NJ, and central and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in deep south TX, central MO, northern IN, central and southern MI, northern NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, and southern New England. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, October 15

Moderate Risk for the FL peninsula. Low Risk for cucurbits in central and southern MI, IN, OH, southern ON, KY except the south-central, NY, PA, MD, DE, NJ, southern QC, New England except ME, MS, AL, GA, the FL panhandle, and deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

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