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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, October 21, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 5 October: First report from Maine. CDM has been confirmed in Penobscot County, ME. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 26 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Dry, with scattered showers near the Gulf Coast toward midweek. High pressure centered over the eastern U.S. governs the weather. Dry weather dominates. As the High shifts offshore, increasing moisture ahead of another cold front will help generate some whowers i the lower southeast / central Gulf coast. Highs in the 50s to 70s, lows in the 30s to 60s, with a warming trend. Frosts and freezes have occurred farther south than before and more are forecast tonight and/or Monday night.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Cold temperatures and lack of hosts have essentially squelched any potential for further epidemic spread in the northern and central areas of eastern North America. Unfavorable conditions are completely dominant in the southern sections Sunday and Monday. On Tuesday, some short-range disease development may occur near the Gulf Coast.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, October 21

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, October 22

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Tuesday, October 23

Moderate Risk in the FL eastern panhandle. Low Risk to cucurbits in the western panhandle, southwest AL, and southern MS. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, October 19, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 5 October: First report from Maine. CDM has been confirmed in Penobscot County, ME. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 26 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Scattered showers. A pair of cold fronts will overtake surface troughs and a stationary front as they trek toward and then off the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. Scattered showers will fall ahead of the fronts and near the other boundaries. Frosts and freezes have already occurred over many northern and mountain areas. More will occur late this week and during the weekend. Highs ranging from the 40s to 80s, lows from the 20s/30s to the 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in the southern U.S.. Transport events move near-source and northeast on Friday, quickly east on Saturday. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions ahead of the cold front and near the other features may promote some epidemic spread in the southern half of the U.S.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, October 19

Moderate Risk for eastern MS, south-central TN, AL, far southwest GA, and the northern FL panhandle. Low Risk for cucurbits northeast LA, southwest MS, the NC foothills, and west-central FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, October 20

Moderate Risk in southeast VA, central and eastern NC, and SC. Low Risk to cucurbits in central LA, southwest and northeast MS, south-central TN, AL, GA except the northeast, the FL panhandle and northern FL, and western NC / southwest VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, October 17, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 5 October: First report from Maine. CDM has been confirmed in Penobscot County, ME. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 26 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

A dry period. One front sags through the Southeast kicking off a few showers while another swings across the northern areas. Strong high pressure governs otherwise. Highs from the 40s/50s to 80s, lows 30s/40s with some 50s to 70s South.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in the South. Conditions have become unfavorable in the northern and many central locations. Some southern host plants are under light to moderate threat of epidemic spread along and ahead of the front in the Southeast.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, October 17

Moderate Risk for northern LA, west-central FL, the eastern panhandle, southwest GA, eastern SC, eastern NC. Low Risk for cucurbits in eastern AL, central and southeast GA, central SC, central NC, and southeast VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, October 18

Moderate Risk in central FL. Low Risk to cucurbits in northern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, October 14, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 5 October: First report from Maine. CDM has been confirmed in Penobscot County, ME. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 26 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Unsettled; dry with an increasing chance of showers Southeast. A strong cold front in the central U.S. will overtake an existing front in the South on its way to sweeping through eastern North America. Shower activity is focused initially in the Ohio Valley and parts of the North. The Southeast is generally dry; the chance of showers here increases with time as the front moves into the TN Valley  / lower mid-Atlantic. Highs range from the 50s to 80s, lows from the 30s to 70s. Frosts and/or freezes have occurred across parts of the northern sections and more are on the way during midweek.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible most areas. Transport events tend to track east to northeast in most cases and there will be a few behind the cold front that move near-source or south to southwest. Autumn conditions prevail, with diminished spore load, a variety of sky cover, and a mish-mash of scattered showers and light to moderate rainfall in some regions.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, October 14

Moderate Risk for west-central FL, central NC, central and eastern VA, southern MD, southern DE, western and northern MS, central and western TN, and western and central KY. Low Risk for cucurbits in western NC, eastern TN, far eastern KY, WV, western VA, northern MD and DE, NJ, PA, southern NY, southern ON, OH, IN, central and southern MI, far eastern IL, and southern WI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, October 15

Moderate Risk in northern LA, southwest and eastern MS, AL, northwest GA, western and central TN, and KY. Low Risk to cucurbits in the southern Appalachian Mountains, southern IN, OH, central and western WV, central and eastern VA, NJ, MD, DE, southern ON, PA, NY, Long Island, and New England except northern ME. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Tuesday, October 16

Moderate Risk for central LA, MS, south-central TN, AL except the southeast, northern GA, northern SC, central and eastern NC, southeast VA, and west-central FL. Low Risk to cucurbits in southeast AL, the FL panhandle, central and southern GA, central and southern SC, eastern TN, western NC, southwest and central VA, southern MD, and southern DE. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, October 12, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 5 October: First report from Maine. CDM has been confirmed in Penobscot County, ME. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 26 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Chance of showers parts of Ohio Valley and North; dry otherwise. Showers are possible in the wake of the active weather during midweek in parts of the central and northern areas. Colder temperatures finally make their presence known in the North and a wide range of temperatures is expected. Highs from the 50s to 80s, lows in the 30s to 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Possible epidemic spread in the Ohio Valley and North. Conditions are slightly favorable for survivable transport and deposition for the events in portions of the Ohio Valley and sections of the North.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, October 12

Low Risk for cucurbits in eastern IA, northern and eastern IL, southern MI, IN, KY, OH, WV, southern ON, NY, PA, northern MD and northern VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, October 13

Low Risk to cucurbits in northern MS and AL, TN, KY, southern IL and IN, northern MD and DE, PA, NJ, NY, Long Island, southern New England, and southern VT and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

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