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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, August 12, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 10 August: New report from VA. CDM has been confirmed in Suffolk County, VA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 8 August: First report from RI; new reports from SC, PA, and MD. CDM has been confirmed in Washington County, RI; Aiken and Newberry Counties, SC; Chester County, PA; and Cecil County, MD. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: East-central / Eastern U.S.

Active weather North; mostly dry with some showers South. Two frontal systems ... one in the central U.S. and one in southeast Canada ... combine to usher in a period of increasingly wet weather. Rain and showers fall in the Great Lakes / Ohio Valley today and will expand into the Northeast on Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers are possible elsewhere. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s, with some 70s/50s far North.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely near the MI source and in the Northeast. Another day of unfavorable conditions for most transport events on Monday with the notable exception of the MI event. Conditions deteriorate on Tuesday ahead of the approaching fronts with the most favorable conditions in the Northeast and slightly favorable to mixed conditions southwestward through the mid-Atlantic and in parts of the Southeast. The timing is such that the MI event will also have favorable conditions on Tuesday. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, August 12

HIGH Risk for the FL panhandle, southern AL, southwest GA, southwest MI, and northern IN. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in east-central AL, most of central and northern GA, and the NC mountains. Low Risk on the FL peninsula, and in east-central IN, northwest OH, parts of south-central and southern MI, southern SC, far southeast GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, August 13

HIGH Risk for southwest MI, northern IN, northeast MD, northern DE, eastern PA, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, and southern New England. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in eastern TN, southeast KY, southern WV, southwest and far southwest VA, western NC, the FL panhandle, and southern AL and GA. Low risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, central IN, southern DE and MD, southern and eastern VA, north-central and northeast NC, and central AL and GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Saturday, August 10, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 10 August: New report from VA. CDM has been confirmed in Suffolk County, VA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 8 August: First report from RI; new reports from SC, PA, and MD. CDM has been confirmed in Washington County, RI; Aiken and Newberry Counties, SC; Chester County, PA; and Cecil County, MD. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: East-central / Eastern U.S.

Showers Southeast and North-central; drier Northeast and South-central. A front stalled over the Carolinas / TN Valley bisects the central and eastern U.S.. High pressure and dry weather largely govern the North today. Another front enters the North on Sunday accompanied by scattered showers. To the south, scattered showers occur east of the MS River while the south-central U.S. is dry. Highs in the 70s to 90s, lows in the 50s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in parts of the South. Transport events move near-source and east on Saturday, near-source and curving north in most cases on Sunday. Conditions vary widely depending on cloud cover and rainfall. The more favorable conditions will be in the Southeast / NC. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Saturday, August 10

HIGH Risk for central and southern AL, the FL panhandle, western NC, and southeast NC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and southern GA. Low Risk on the FL peninsula, and in eastern TN, far eastern GA, SC, central and northeast NC, central and eastern MA, RI, and far eastern CT. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Sunday, August 11

HIGH Risk for  southern AL, the FL panhandle, southern GA, and southern SC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in south-central GA, northeast SC, and southeast NC. Low risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, central AL, far eastern GA, central and western SC, the NC mountains, and western and central MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Thursday, August 8, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 8 August: First report from RI; new reports from SC, PA, and MD. CDM has been confirmed in Washington County, RI; Aiken and Newberry Counties, SC; Chester County, PA; and Cecil County, MD. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 5 August: New report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Yadkin County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: East-central / Eastern U.S.

A drier period with some showers. The early-week front is moving off the mid-atlantic / Northeast coast while its southern sections settles over the  South. Another front moves through the northern areas. Overall, shower activity will be less than many previous days but they will still be present. Scattered showers occur near and ahead of the fronts with drier weather elsewhere. Highs in the 80s and 90s (70s far north), lows from the 50s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions are forecast for most transport events. Events track generally east. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Thursday, August 8

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and southern AL, the FL panhandle, western and southern GA, eastern PA, western NJ, southeast NY, far western MA, southern VT and NH, and far southwest ME. Low Risk on the FL peninsula, and in eastern MD, DE, southern and eastern NJ, Long Island, CT, RI, and MA except the far west. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Friday, August 9

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and southern AL, the FL panhandle, southern GA and SC, eastern TN, southeast KY, far southwest VA, and the NC mountains. Low risk for cucurbits in southwest VA, the NC foothills, northeast SC, eastern NC, eastern VA, southern MD, southern DE, and the FL peninsula. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, August 5, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 5 August: New report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Yadkin County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 3 August: First report from PA; new report from TN. CDM has been confirmed in Lancaster County, PA; and Cumberland County, TN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: East-central / Eastern U.S.

More active weather. Scattered to numerous showers or storms are anticipated in most sections of the east-central and eastern U.S. for the next several days. Decaying fronts in the East and a front moving through the northern areas will be the foci for higher chances / higher amounts of rain. Highs in the 80s-90s, lows from the 50s to 70s, coolest Northeast.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely. A wide range of environmental conditions surrounds the transport events of Monday through Wednesday. Transport events tend to move east or northeast each day. A large majority of the growing areas will be at Moderate or High Risk on multiple days. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, August 5

HIGH Risk on the FL panhandle and in central and southern AL, west-central and southern GA, eastern NC and VA, central and southern MD and DE. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in south-central VA, western and central NC, SC, and eastern GA. Low Risk in the FL peninsula, eastern TN, northern DE, southern NJ, southern MI, far northern IN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, August 6

HIGH Risk in the eastern FL panhandle, southern GA, southwest MI, northern IN, and far northwest OH. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in the western panhandle, central and southern AL, central GA, southern SC, northwest SC, western NC, northeast MD, northern DE, eastern PA, NJ, Long Island, southeast NY, southern VT, western MA, and CT. Low risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula, and in the central and eastern Carolinas, southern and eastern VA, southern MD and DE, southern NH, central and eastern MA, RI, southeast MI, north-central OH, and far southern ON. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Wednesday, August 7

HIGH Risk in the NC mountains, central and eastern MD, DE, eastern PA, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, southern New England, and far southern VT and NH. Moderate Risk in the FL panhandle, central and southern AL and GA, SC, NC except the mountains, eastern TN, southeast KY, all but northern VA, and southern MD. Low risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula, and northeast NY, VT and NH except the far southern sections, western ME, and nearby southern Quebec. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Saturday, August 3, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 3 August: First report from PA; new report from TN. CDM has been confirmed in Lancaster County, PA; and Cumberland County, TN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 1 August: First report from TN; new reports from NC, NJ, and MD. CDM has been confirmed in Knox County, TN; Hunterdon County, NJ; Wicomico County, MD; and Haywood, Henderson, and Burke Counties, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern U.S.

Showery Summer weather. A stationary front resides over the southern U.S. with high pressure to the north. A weak front will swing through southern Canada / northeastern U.S. tonight and Sunday. Scattered showers will fall each day, mainly in the mid-Atlantic and southern U.S.. Highs in the 80s to low 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the South, possible elsewhere on the East Coast. Transport events tend to track near-source and/or NE / E / SE. Conditions will vary event to event and day to day corresponding to the change in sky cover and chance of showers / rain amounts. Better chances of epidemic spread will be in the southern half of the U.S..

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Saturday, August 3

HIGH Risk in the FL panhandle, central and southern AL, and far southwest GA. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern GA, eastern SC, eastern NC, the NC mountains, east-central TN, NJ, eastern PA, southeast NY, Long Island, and western CT. Low Risk in DE, eastern MD, eastern VA, eastern TN, central NC, central and western SC, and the FL peninsula. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Sunday, August 4

HIGH Risk in central and southern AL, the FL panhandle, central and southern GA, SC, east-central TN, and the western half of NC. Moderate Risk in eastern TN, the eastern half of NC, southeast VA, and southern MD. Low risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula, eastern MD, DE, southeast PA, NJ, western Long Island, eastern MA, and and RI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

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