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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Thursday, June 13, 2019


*** Epidemic Update - 13 June: New report from SC. CDM has been confirmed in Dorchester County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 10 June: New reports from FL and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Gadsden, Levy, and Alachua Counties, FL; and Marion County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast U.S.

A drying trend. A strong cold front plows into the Southeast, reaching central FL Friday morning before settling around northern FL Friday evening. High pressure and clearing skies are forecast for mainland areas during late-week. Showers and storms continue over central and southern FL. Cooler, with highs in the 80s and lows from the 50s to 70s, coolest interior.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely for parts of FL. Transport events curve south / southwest on Thursday, southwest and west on Friday. Elevated risks to cucurbits will be found on the FL peninsula. Sunny skies and dry weather greatly dampen effective transport and deposition from the mainland sources.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Thursday, June 13

HIGH Risk for central and southern FL. Low Risk in northern FL and southeast GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Friday, June 14

HIGH Risk in southern FL. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central FL. Low risk for northern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, June 10, 2019


*** Epidemic Update - 10 June: New reports from FL and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Gadsden, Levy, and Alachua Counties, FL; and Marion County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 6 June: First report from SC. CDM has been confirmed in Bamburg County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast U.S.

Prolonged period of wet weather. The existing front over the Southeast that edged into the region over the weekend will be overtaken by a new cold front moving in from the west. This front stalls over the Southeast through midweek. The transition produces some variation in the weather for some locations but the general theme remains in place. Showers and storms will continue under variably to mostly cloudy skies. Highs mainly in the 80s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast. The most favorable conditions lie to the south / east of the frontal system(s) in the lower Southeast and southern Atlantic coastal sections. Transport events originating from sources in those areas (a very large majority) tend to move east and northeast over the next 3 days. A few others move near-source or even southwest. Cucurbits in nearby areas will be at Low to Moderate Risk.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, June 10

HIGH Risk for central and northern FL, the eastern panhandle, southern GA, southern and eastern SC, and the eastern half of NC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern FL. Low Risk in southeast VA and far southern MD. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, June 11

HIGH Risk in west-central and northern FL, the eastern panhandle, far southeast AL, southern GA, and southern SC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern and east-central FL, northeast SC, and far southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Wednesday, June 12

HIGH Risk in central and northern FL, the eastern panhandle, southern GA, southern and eastern SC, and far southeast NC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in far southern FL, southeast AL, and central GA. Low Risk in most of eastern NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Saturday, June 8, 2019


*** Epidemic Update - 6 June: First report from SC. CDM has been confirmed in Bamburg County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 25 May: First reports from GA; New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Lowndes, Colquitt, and Decatur Counties, GA; and Marion County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast U.S.

Prolonged period of wet weather. An east-west stationary front across the upper Southeast connects to a Low in the mid-South / TN Valley. A cold front extends southward from the Low. Tropical moisture streaming northward from the Gulf of Mexico will produce copious clouds and numerous showers and thunderstorms over the entire region through the weekend. Highs mostly 80s, lows mostly 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast, possible in the TN Valley / lower mid-Atlantic. Transport events curve north and northwest on Saturday, north and northeast on Sunday. Conditions are favorable for epidemic spread for almost all events.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Saturday, June 8

HIGH Risk for central and northern FL, the eastern panhandle, southeast AL, central and southern GA, and southwest SC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern FL, northwest SC, southwest NC, northern GA, northeast AL, and southeast TN. Low Risk in central TN, central and eastern KY, and far southwest VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Sunday, June 9

HIGH Risk in central and northern FL, the eastern panhandle, far southeast AL, southern and central GA, and a broad area of central SC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern FL. Low Risk in northern GA, northwest and northeast SC, and NC except for the northeast. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Thursday, June 6, 2019


*** Epidemic Update - 6 June: First report from SC. CDM has been confirmed in Bamburg County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 25 May: First reports from GA; New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Lowndes, Colquitt, and Decatur Counties, GA; and Marion County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast U.S.

Wetter summertime pattern emerges. High pressure centered in the western Atlantic pumps sultry air into the Southeast. Scattered to numerous showers are a part of daily weather late this week. A cold front in the Ohio Valley / upper mid-Atlantic moving south, and a small system in the southern Plalins edging east, will enhance the chances of showers and storms. Better chances are expected on Friday over Thursday. Highs in the 80s to low 90s, lows in the upper 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast. Favorable conditions for spore production, survivable transport, and effective deposition are on rapid increase during this period. Transport events track near-source and N / NE Thursday, and north curving to northwest on Friday.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Thursday, June 6

HIGH Risk for southwest and south-central GA into western and central SC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula and the eastern panhandle. Low Risk on the northern periphery in northern and southeast GA, northern and coastal SC, and southern NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Friday, June 7

HIGH Risk for central and northern FL and the eastern panhandle, GA, and western and central SC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern and northeast SC, southern NC, and southeast TN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, June 3, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 25 May: First reports from GA; New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Lowndes, Colquitt, and Decatur Counties, GA; and Marion County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 23 May: Update from FL: CDM has been confirmed in a research plot in Collier County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Daily chance of showers expands / increases. As high pressure in the Ohio Valley / mid-Atlantic shifts east and offshore, the front near the GA / FL border dissipates by midweek. Skies will be sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers are possible each day and increased rain chances move into the interior Southeast. Still very warm with highs in the 90s, lows in the 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in the Southeast. Transport events move near-source and curve to the north and northeast, especially Tuesday and Wednesday as the High to the north moves offshore. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions are expected during all events. This brings the threat of epidemic spread to portions of GA and the Carolinas.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, June 3

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL except the west-central section. Low Risk in west-central FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, June 4

Moderate Risk for cucurbits along the west side of the FL peninsula, the eastern panhandle, and southwest GA. Low Risk for cucurbits in eastern FL, south-central and southeast GA, and far southern SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Wednesday, June 5

Moderate Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula, the eastern panhandle, and south-central and southwest GA. Low Risk for cucurbits in southeast GA, central and eastern SC, and southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

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