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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, September 12, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 12 September: First report from NH; New report from OH. CDM has been confirmed in Hillsborough County, NH; and Monroe County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 9 September: New reports from NY, OH, and WI. CDM has been confirmed in Niagara County, NY; Champaign and Seneca County, OH; and Waushara County, WI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Hurricane Florence approaches the NC coast. The weather will become very wet on Thursday in the mid-Atlantic as Florence nears the coast. A variety of weather is expected elsewhere during midweek; showers will occur near a decaying front from the Northeast southwestward all the way to the Gulf Coast. There is a chance of showers elsewhere mixed in with dry weather. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely many areas. Transport events move various directions with those in the middle East Coast increasingly driven by the circulation around Hurricane Florence. Conditions are mixed to favorable for the majority of events. .

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, September 12

HIGH Risk in the FL panhandle, southeast AL, southwest to northeast GA, western NC and SC, far northeast TN, WV, southwest and western VA, northern MD, northern DE, central to southeast PA, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, southern New England, southern VT and NH . Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern DE, central and southern MD, central VA and NC, north-central and eastern SC, southeast KY, eastern TN, northwest GA, east-central and southwest AL, southeast MS and LA. Low Risk for southeast GA, southern SC, eastern NC, southeast VA, eastern OH, northwest PA, and south-central and western NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, September 13

HIGH Risk in west-central NY, central PA, MD, the eastern 1/2 of VA, east-central / eastern / far southwest NC, northeast NC, northeast and southern TN, northern GA, all but southeast AL, and southeast MS. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the western FL panhandle, central GA, western and central SC, western NC except the southwest, the western 1/2 of VA, far eastern KY, WV, southwest and far eastern PA, DE, NJ, and Long Island. Low Risk to cucurbits in eastern MI, OH, northwest PA, western and southeast NY, southern VT and NH, southern New England, east-central KY, and north-central TN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, September 9, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 9 September: New reports from NY, OH, and WI. CDM has been confirmed in Niagara County, NY; Champaign and Seneca County, OH; and Waushara County, WI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 7 September: New report from TN. CDM has been confirmed in Carter County, TN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Active weather. A warm front over the mid-Atlantic connects to the remnants of TC Gordon in the Ohio Valley. A cold front extends to the southwest. Showers and rain will fall from southeast Canada to the Gulf Coast as the system treks to the north and east. Some drying wil occur Tuesday. The cold front stalls on Thursday. Highs in the 60s to 80s warming tot he 70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely all regions. Conditions for survivable transport and deposition will be favorable during a large majority of the transport events early this week. Events move in a variety of directions and can impact any growing areas east of the MS river on more than one occasion.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, September 9

HIGH Risk in southern and eastern IN, OH, southeast MI, southern ON, western and southern NY, PA, NJ, DE, MD, the Virginias, KY, TN, the NC mountains, and far northern AL . Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northwest IN, southwest and east-central MI, central and eastern NC, SC, GA, eastern AL, and far northern FL. Low Risk for southwet AL, the FL panhandle, southeast NY, Long Island, and western CT. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, September 10

HIGH Risk in southesat MI, southern ON, all but southwest OH, NY, PA, NJ, southern New England, southern VT and NH, DE, MD, WV, all but southeast VA, northeast TN, western NC, central and southern AL, and west-central nd southern GA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in east-central MI, eastern IN, southwest OH, eastern KY, central TN, southeast VA, central and eastern NC, SC, northern AL, and northern and eastern GA . Low Risk to cucurbits in west-central MI, and central IN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Tuesday, September 11

HIGH Risk in the FL panhandle, central and southern AL and GA, southern Appalachian Mountains, far eastn PA, northern NJ, Long Island, eastern NY, southern New England, and southern VT and NH. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in far southeast PA, southern NJ, DE, eastern MD, south-central and southeast VA, central and eastern NC, all but northwest SC, northern and eastern GA, northern AL, and south-central TN. Low Risk to cucurbits in northern VA, central and eastern WV, central and western MD, western and central PA, NY except the southeast, and northern VT and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 7, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 7 September: New report from TN. CDM has been confirmed in Carter County, TN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 4 September: New report from TN. CDM has been confirmed in Carter County, TN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Unsettled mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley; dry far North; chance of showers elsewhere. Declining TD Gordon is moving quite slowly through the mid-MS Valley. He joins with a wavy surface front running west-east from the Ohio Valley into the mid-Atlantic states. Precipitation will focus in these areas. High pressure pressing southward from Canada will keep southern Canada and the far northern U.S. dry. To the south ... warm, muggy weather dominates with showers possible in various areas, mainly near the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic states. Transport events exhibit a variety of directions late this week, the more notable ones moving westward from some of the northern sources. Conditions are most favorable near the front lying across the eastern U.S. midsection. The clouds and rain associated with the circulation around TD Gordon will have only a partial effect on a few transport events.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 7

HIGH Risk in southeast IL, central and southern IN, central and southern OH, KY and WV except the far south, central and southern PA, MD, northern VA, DE, and central and southern NJ . Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northeast IL, northern IN, northern OH, northern PA, northern NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, CT, southern VA, far southern WV, far southern KY, western TN, the mountain and coastal counties of NC, coastal SC, southern GA, far southern AL, and the FL panhandle. Low Risk for south-central AL and GA, east-central SC and NC, and northeast TN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 8

HIGH Risk in southeast IL, central and southern IN, southern OH, KY, VA, WV, MD, southern PA, DE, and southern NJ. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and eastern TN, NC, SC, far southern GA and AL, and the FL panhandle. Low Risk to cucurbits in south-central AL and GA, northeast IL, far northern IL, northern OH, southern MI, central and northern PA, and northern NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Tuesday, September 4, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 4 September: New report from TN. CDM has been confirmed in Carter County, TN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 2 September: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Wet Gulf Coast and parts of the North; variable weather elsewhere. The big players in the mid-week weather are TS / HR Gordon in the Gulf of Mexico and a frontal system in the North. Tropical Storm Gordon is moving northwest through the eastern Gulf. Gordon should reach hurricane strength this afternoon and will make landfall on the central Gulf Coast tonight. The lower MS Va;lley will receive heavy rain over the next several days. To the north, a frontal system will impact the upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and the Northeast in succession as it moves east. Meanwhile, high pressure entrenched over most of east-central and eastern North America yields hot and muggy weather, with summertime isolated to scattered showers in various areas each day. Hot with highs in the upper 80s and 90s, lows in the upper 60s and 70s, cooling in the North Thursday into Friday.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely Gulf Coast and parts of the North. A mixed bag of conditions surround the midweek transport events. The most favorable will be near Hurricane Gordon and near the front progressing across the northern areas. Conditions change day-to-day and locale to locale for most events, slightly favorable to mixed. Events move many directions.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Tuesday, September 4

HIGH Risk in eastern LA, the southern 1/2 of MS, southern AL, the FL panhandle, and southwest GA . Moderate Risk to cucurbits in north-central MS, north-central AL, central and southeast GA, and southern SC. Low Risk for northern LA, eastern AR, northern MS, northern AL, south-central TN, northern and eastern SC, NC, VA, eastern WV, southern MD, southern DE, eastern WI, central and southern MI, far northern IN, southern ON, and western NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Wednesday, September 5

HIGH Risk in southwest AL, central and southern MS, northern IL, southern WI, and west-central MI. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in far eastern AR, northern MS, central and southeast AL, the FL panhandle, southwest and eastern GA, central and western SC, southwest NC, northern IN, and central and southern MI. Low Risk to cucurbits in southeast MI, northern OH, southern ON, most of NY, PA except the southwest, northern NJ, central and southern IN, and southwest OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Thursday, September 6

HIGH Risk in southern MS, southwest AL, southeast MI, northern OH, western and central PA, southern ON, and the western 1/2 of NY. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the FL panhandle, southwest GA, coastal SC, AL except the southwest, northern  MS, western TN and KY, southeast IL, southwest IN, eastern MD, DE, eastern PA, NJ, the eastern half of NY, southern New England, and southern VT and NH . Low Risk to cucurbits in south-central MI, part of southern ON, eastern KY, southern WV, western and southwest VA, northeast TN, and western NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, September 2, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 2 September: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 31 August: New reports from TN and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Lawrence County, TN; and Aiken County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Unsettled Gulf Coast and North; mostly dry with some showers elsewhere. High pressure at the surface and aloft governs the weather in eastern North America. Unsettled / wet weather will be found in a "horseshoe" that runs along the Gulf Coast, north through the central U.S., and then east into the Great Lakes and Northeast. The high pressure aloft generally suppresses shower activity in the Ohio and TN Valleys and the mid-Atlantic, though isolated to scattered showers will occur in some areas. Warm, with highs 80s and 90s, lows in the upper 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely Gulf Coast and part of the Great Lakes, possible elsewhere. Transport events move a variety of directions, driven by the clockwise circulation around surface high pressure centered along / just off the central Atlantic coast. Conditions will more favorable near the Gulf Coast and parts of the North. Elsewhere, anything from unfavorable to mixed conditions is possible during the events, with risks heavily dependent on daily cloud coverage and the chance of showers.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, September 2

HIGH Risk in southern SC, southern GA, the FL panhandle, southern AL, southern MS, southeast LA, and eastern WI . Moderate Risk to cucurbits in east-central MS, central AL, central and northeast GA, northwest SC, western NC, eastern TN, southeast KY, southern WV, southwest VA, theDelMarVa peninsula, and southern NJ. Low Risk for NY, western MA, CT, Long Island, northern and central NJ, the northeast 1/2 of PA, east-central KY, central and eastern VA, central and eastern NC, and north-central and northeast SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, September 3

HIGH Risk in eastern WI, central MI, southern MS, far southeast LA, southern AL, the FL panhandle, and southwest GA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central AL, central GA, southern SC, the NC mountains and nearby southwest VA, northern IN and OH, southern MI, southern ON, far northern PA, and western and central NY. Low Risk to cucurbits in PA except the far north, NJ, northern WV, MD, DE, VA except the southwest, east-central and eastern KY, NC east of the mountains, and central and northern SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

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