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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, August 2, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 2 August: New reports from MD, OH, and NY. CDM has been confirmed in Prince George's, St. Mary's, and Anne Arundel Counties, MD; Franklin County, OH; Chatauqua County, NY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 31 July: First report from MA; new reports from NY, PA, and AL. CDM has been confirmed in Franklin County, MA; Suffolk, Seneca, and Cattaraugus Counties, NY; Bucks County, PA; and Chilton County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Unsettled far South and North; mostly dry elsewhere. Moisture is on the increase in the eastern U.S. / southern Canada during midweek. Scattered to numerous showers will fire in the far South and near a meandering frontal boundary in the North. Drier weather persists in between. Post - Tropical Cyclone Emily, who brough rain to FL earlier this week, moves northeast off the Southeast coast and should have little to no impact. Highs mostly in the 80s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the northern areas and the Southeast. Transport events tend to track near the sources and to the northeast. The more favorable conditions for epidemic spread are heavily weighted across the North and toward the Southeast. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, August 2

HIGH Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula, and in eastern MI, northwest OH, southern ON, eastern PA, northern NJ, southeast NY, CDT, western and central MA, and southern VT and NH. Moderate Risk in northern KY, central and eastern OH, western and central NY, western PA, central MD, northern DE, southern NJ, Long Island, RI, eastern MA, east-central TX, southwest MS, the eastern panhandle of FL, and southern GA. Low Risk for cucurbits in the NC mountains. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, August 3

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and northern FL, the FL panhandle, southeast MS, southern AL, central and southern GA, southern SC, lower MI, northern OH, southern ON, central and northern PA, and western and central NY. Moderate Risk in northeast KY, southern OH, southern PA, northern MD, northern DE, NJ, eastern NY, far southern Quebec, VT, NH, and the western halves of MA and CT. Low Risk for cucurbits in far southern TX, east-central TX, central and northern MS, northern AL, northeast SC, and southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, July 31, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 31 July: First report from MA; new reports from NY, PA, and AL. CDM has been confirmed in Franklin County, MA; Suffolk, Seneca, and Cattaraugus Counties, NY; Bucks County, PA; and Chilton County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 28 July: New reports from AL, PA, and OH. CDM has been confirmed in Elmore County, AL; Union, Lawrence, and Huntingon Counties, PA; Holmes and Delaware Counties, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Mostly dry. A broad area of high pressure over eastern North America yields drier and less humid weather for nearly all regions early this week. A few showers are possible in the far South and far North (near some fronts) and in the Plains. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows mostly in the 60s..

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in FL; unlikely most areas. Unfavorable conditions are dominant during nearly all the transport events on Monday and Tuesday. The lone exceptions are in FL. Transport events tend to move slowly near the sources. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, July 31

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in east-central MI, western NY, southeast NY, and western MA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, August 1

HIGH Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula. Low Risk for cucurbits in western NY, and a large section of central PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, July 28, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 28 July: New reports from AL, PA, and OH. CDM has been confirmed in Elmore County, AL; Union, Lawrence, and Huntingdon Counties, PA; Holmes and Delaware Counties, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 26 July: First report from KY; new reports from OH and NC. CDM has been confirmed in Fayette County, KY; Belmont County, OH; and Henderson County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Active weather transitions to more peaceful weather. A strong-for-summer frontal system stretches from the New England coast southwestward through the mid-Atlantic and into the mid-South. Copious rains are expected along and ahead of this system as it makes slowish progress to the east and south. High pressure from Canada provides drier, cooler air for some areas on Saturday and most areas by Sunday. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows 50s to 70s, coolest Northeast.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in many areas Friday and Saturday. Transport events will be driven by the position of the strong front. Events move near-source and ENE along and south of the front (most areas Friday and southern areas Saturday); events track near-source and/or south to southwest north of the front (northern sections Saturday and most areas Sunday). Conditions are favorable in the majority of regions Friday, along the eastern and southern states Saturday, with much less favorable conditions on Sunday. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, July 28

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern AL, western SC and NC, eastern KY, southern and eastern OH, western and northern WV, PA, NJ, DE, and MD. Moderate Risk in southeast VA, central and eastern NC, northern SC, southern MS, south-central AL, western GA, and the FL peninsula. Low Risk for cucurbits in far southern AL, the FL panhandle, southern and eastern GA, southern and west-central SC, western and northern VA, central and northern OH, southeast MI, far southern ON, southeast NY, Long Island, and western CT. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, July 29

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southeast LA, southern AL, central and southern GA, northern FL and the FL panhandle, southern and eastern SC, eastern NC, northern and eastern VA, northern WV, MD, DE, NJ, south-central and southeast PA. Moderate Risk in central VA, east-central NC, central SC, and central and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in southeast OH, northern WV, western and northern PA, and southeast NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, July 30

HIGH Risk for cucurbits along the FL peninsula. Low Risk for cucurbits in far eastern NC, far southeast VA, eastern MD, DE, and southern NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, July 26, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 26 July: First report from KY; new reports from OH and NC. CDM has been confirmed in Fayette County, KY; Belmont County, OH; and Henderson County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 24 July: New reports from NY, PA, MI, and NC. CDM has been confirmed in Genessee and Yates Counties, NY; Cumberland, Franklin, Clinton, and Centre Counties, PA; Wayne and Muskegon Counties, MI; and Lincoln County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Variable weather. Rain and/or showers during midweek are focused near a dissipating front in the Southeast and along / ahead of a cold front that moves into the upper Midwest today and into the Northeast / Ohio Valley on Thursday. Mostly dry elsewhere and elsewhen. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in parts of the Southeast and North. Everything from dry weather to numerous showers is possible in the southern areas; the risks reflect this. Dry / unfavorable weather dominates the northern areas for Wednesday's transport events. As the front draws nearer, it will impact many more transport events on Thursday. Events overall show a tendency to track near the sources and to the east / northeast during midweek. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, July 26

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southeast GA, southern SC, and north-central MI. Moderate Risk in southern FL, the eastern panhandle, southeast AL, southwest and central GA, northern SC, and western NC. Low Risk for cucurbits in central and northern FL, the western panhandle of FL, western AL, far northeast SC and far southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, July 27

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, southern GA, western NC, northeast KY, far northeast IN, southern MI, southern ON, northern and eastern OH, central and southern NY, north-central and northeast PA, northern NJ, Long Island, southern New England, and far southern VT and NH. Moderate Risk in central MI, south-central and southeast PA, southern NJ, central and southern FL, the FL panhandle, southeast AL, central GA, southern and western SC, and west-central NC. Low Risk for cucurbits in central and western AL, eastern SC, and northern IN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, July 24, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 24 July: New reports from NY, PA, MI, and NC. CDM has been confirmed in Genessee and Yates Counties, NY; Cumberland, Franklin, Clinton, and Centre Counties, PA; Wayne and Muskegon Counties, MI; and Lincoln County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 21 July: New reports from OH and MD. CDM has been confirmed in Henry County, OH; and Wicomico County, MD. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Unsettled, but improving, North; Hot with summertime showers South. High pressure moving into southern Canada / upper Midwest / Great Lakes will push the northern front to the south early this week. Unsettled weather in the lower Lakes and Northeast will move out on Tuesday. Daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers will fire across the central and southern sections. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in parts of the Northeast and South. Transport events encounter a variety of conditions. Toward the northern areas, more favorable weather will give way to only slightly favorable conditions on Tuesday. In the southern U.S., risks are quite elevated in portions of the deep South states and near the south-Atlantic coast, with slightly favorable to mixed conditions farther inland. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, July 24

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern MS, AL, central and southern GA, the FL panhandle, northern FL, central and eastern SC, southeast NC, northern and central PA, central and southern NY, northern NJ, Long Island, and southern New England. Moderate Risk southern PA, southern NJ, northern MD, northern DE, and central and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in eastern TX, western SC, NC except the southeast, southeast VA, eastern MD, southern DE, far southeast MI, and northern OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, July 25

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern MS, central and southern AL, southern GA, the FL panhandle, eastern SC, and far southeast NC. Moderate Risk in the northern 1/2 of GA, central and western SC, most of NC, and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in central and northern FL, NJ, eastern and northern PA, western and southern NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

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