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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, August 17, 2016
 

*** Epidemic Update - 17 August: First report from Massachusetts; new reports from MI, AL, NC, PA, and KY. CDM has been confirmed in Franklin County, MA; Clinton and Muskegon Counties, MI; Limestone County, AL; Haywood County, NC; Madison County, KY; and Huntingdon County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 15 AugustNew report from VA. CDM has been confirmed in Accomack County, VA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Summer weather with daily showers. The early-week cold front is sinking into the mid-Atlantic and slowly dissipating. High pressure is spread out over most of the rest of eastern North America. Moist air is plentiful, however, so scattered to numerous showers will occur in many locations. Best chances are in the south-central U.S., the mid-Atlantic region, and the Great Lakes (Wednesday). Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows mostly 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in portions of the Great Lakes, TX, the Ohio / TN river valleys, and the mid-Atlantic. Similar to previous days, transport events move near-source and/or to the north or east through midweek. Mixed to favorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition will be present during most events.   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, August 17

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and eastern MI, central and eastern KY, far southern OH, central and southern WV, southwest and far southwest VA, western NC, northeast TN, and southeast TX. Moderate Risk in deep south TX, northern FL / FL panhandle, GA, AL, southern and western MI, northern and eastern OH, and southern ON. Low Risk for cucurbits in far southern FL, northeast NC, southeast VA, MD, DE, NJ, PA, and western NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, August 18

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southeast TX, northern AL, the southern Appalachians, southern and eastern VA, the DelMarVa peninsula, and southern NJ. Moderate Risk for northern FL, the panhandle, southern AL, central and southern GA, central and eastern sections of SC and NC, central and eastern KY, OH except the west-central, northern MD, PA, NY, central and northern NJ, southern ON, and central and eastern MI. Low risk for cucurbits in western MI, southern FL, and deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2016

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, August 15, 2016
 

*** Epidemic Update - 15 AugustNew report from VA. CDM has been confirmed in Accomack County, VA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 12 August: First report from Vermont; new reports from AL, PA, NC, NY, KY, and OH. CDM has been confirmed in Chittenden County, VT; Lee County, AL; Clinton, Montgomery, and Columbia Counties, PA; Chautauqua County, NY; Jessamine County, KY; and Holmes County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Stagnant pattern with rain along / west of the Appalachians and in the Northeast. The frontal system in the east-central U.S. will continue its lethargic slog to the east, changing its orientation, and stretching from New England through the TN Valley early Wednesday. Rainy weather is expected from the Great Lakes southwestward through LA / TX, plus the upper mid-Atlantic and into the Northeast (mainly Tuesday). A few isolated or scattered showers are possible in the Southeast under sunny to partly cloudy skies. Highs mostly 80s and 90s, lows mostly 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the northern U.S. / southern Canada / Ohio Valley. Transport events, for the most part, track near the sources and to the north or east Monday and Tuesday. The greatest cloud cover and rain amounts are forecast for the northern tier of states / southern Canada, more toward the Great Lakes on Monday and spreading farther east on Tuesday. Mixed conditions are anticipated for a broad area of the Southeast and Ohio Valley each day. Texas will also experience mixed to favorable conditions during the events coming out of that state.   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, August 15

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in lower MI, northeast IN, northern OH, southern ON, northwest PA, southeast TX, and western NY. Moderate Risk in central PA, deep south TX, northern FL, the FL panhandle, GA, AL, eastern MS, TN, KY, western NC, southwest VA, WV, central and southern IN, and southern OH. Low Risk for cucurbits in easetern SC, central and eastern VA, central and eastern MD, DE, NJ, eastern PA, and central and southeast NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, August 16

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southeast TX, central and eastern KY, eastern IN, OH, lower MI, southern ON, PA, NY, NJ, Long Island, and all of New England except central and eastern ME. Moderate Risk for northern FL, the FL panhandle, GA, AL, eastern MS, south-central TN, northwest NC, western and southwest VA, WV, far western and far eastern MD, DE, and deep south TX. Low risk for cucurbits in far southern FL, central and western IN, northeast IL, southeast WI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2016

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, August 12, 2016
 

*** Epidemic Update - 12 August: First report from Vermont; new reports from AL, PA, NC, NY, KY, and OH. CDM has been confirmed in Chittenden County, VT; Lee County, AL; Clinton, Montgomery, and Columbia Counties, PA; Chautauqua County, NY; Jessamine County, KY; and Holmes County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 10 AugustNew reports from AL, OH, MI, and NY. CDM has been confirmed in Chambers County, AL; Fulton, Sandusky, and Huron Counties, OH; Ingham County, MI; Richmond City County, VA; and Suffolk County, NY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Wet weather along and ahead of a cold front and along the Gulf Coast; drier elsewhere. Active weather in association with a slow-moving cold front will impact areas from the Northeast / southern Canada / Great Lakes southwestward through the Ohio Valley and into the south-central United States. The rainy weather in the central Gulf states is due to an area of low pressure and a weak front. Hot and humid weather for most areas comes courtesy of a Bermuda High extending into the eastern U.S.. Hot with highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s to low 80s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely over much of the east-central and eastern U.S. and southern Canada. The plodding nature of the cold front and plentiful moisture streaming into eastern North America will combine to produce mixed to favorable conditions for epidemic spread, for several days in a row, in most areas east of the MS River. For those regions with reported disease, only a portion of the lower mid-Atlantic region and parts of TX will be exempt.   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, August 12

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, the FL panhandle, southern GA, southern and western AL, northeast MS, western TN, northern OH, central and southern MI, southern ON, northern PA, NY except Long Island, western MA, VT, NH, and western ME. Moderate Risk in eastern and northern AL, central and eastern TN, northern and central GA, western SC and NC, central and southern WV, southeast PA, central and northern NJ, Long Island, CT, RI, and most of MA. Low Risk for cucurbits in southern FL, southeast TX, eastern SC, southeast NC, central and northern KY, southwest OH, and the eastern 1/2 of IN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, August 13

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and western AL, eastern MS, central TN, central and northern KY, OH, lower MI, PA except the southeast, southern ON, southern Quebec, NY except Long Island, northern CT, central and western MA, VT, and central and western NH. Moderate Risk for southeast TX, northern FL, the FL panhandle, eastern AL, GA, eastern TN, the western Carolinas, southeast WV, western and southwest VA, southeast PA, NJ, Long Island, southern CT, RI, and eastern MA. Low risk for cucurbits in southern FL, eastern SC, southeast NC, eastern NH, and western ME. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, August 14

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and northern KY, all but northwest OH, northern WV, PA except the southeast, NY except the north, southern VT and NH, and western and central MA. Moderate Risk for southeast TX, northern FL, the FL panhandle, GA, AL, eastern MS, TN except the far west, western SC and NC, northern / western / southwestern VA, southeast WV, northern MD, southeast PA, NJ, Long Island, CT, RI, eastern MA, southern ON, northern NY, northern VT. Low risk for cucurbits in southern MD, DE, eastern SC, southeast NC, and southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2016

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, August 10, 2016
 

*** Epidemic Update - 10 AugustNew reports from AL, OH, MI, and NY. CDM has been confirmed in Chambers County, AL; Fulton, Sandusky, and Huron Counties, OH; Ingham County, MI; Richmond City County, VA; and Suffolk County, NY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 8 AugustNew reports from NY, TX, MI, and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Ontario County, NY; Harris County, TX; Calhoun County, MI; and Horry County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Active weather parts of the South and North; mostly dry elsewhere. The main weather features include a trough of low pressure in the South, a frontal system draped across the northern areas, and high pressure centered along / off the East Coast. Showers and storms will be numerous near the 2 fronts. Dry weather or isolated to scattered showers will occur elsewhere. Quite warm with highs well into the 80s and 90s, lows mostly 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast and parts of the North, possible many other locations. Conditions will be favorable for survivable transport and effective deposition in the Southeast and parts of the northern U.S. / southern Canada, with slightly favorable to mixed conditions in many other sections of east-central and eastern North America. Most all transport events have a northward component to them, varying from northwest to northeast or east depending on the origin.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, August 10

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern OH, northwest PA, far southwest NY, central and eastern PA, northern NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, southern New England, western and southern SC, GA, AL, eastern MS, northern FL, and the FL panhandle. Moderate Risk in northern and eastern SC, west-central and western NC, west-central and northern KY, southern IN, southwest OH, and northeast TN. Low Risk for cucurbits in southeast TX, southern FL, northeast MS, most of TN, east-central and eastern NC, south-central VA, and western and central NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, August 11

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, the FL panhandle, southwest GA, AL, eastern MS, central and eastern PA, central and southeast NY, Long Island, CT, RI, and southern MA. Moderate Risk for southeast MI, southern ON, western NY, northwest PA, OH, central and southern IN, KY except the southeast, southeast TN, western and southern NC, SC, and northern and eastern GA. Low risk for cucurbits in far southeast TX, southern FL, TN except the southeast, east-central and eastern NC, eastern WV, VA, MD ,DE, and southern NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2016

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, August 8, 2016
 

*** Epidemic Update - 8 AugustNew reports from NY, TX, MI, and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Ontario County, NY; Harris County, TX; Calhoun County, MI; and Horry County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 5 AugustNew reports from PA, MI, and NY. CDM has been confirmed in Erie and Centre Counties, PA; St Joseph and Macomb Counties, MI; and Genesee County, NY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Active weather Southeast; transitional weather elsewhere. A stationary front is strung out over the south-central U.S., roughly from the Carolinas to OK / NE. High pressure lies across the northern sections. Scattered to numerous showers will occur in the much of the southern areas. The High in the North shifts east on Tuesday. As it does and more southerly flow returns, showers are possible in some northern areas after a dry Monday. Highs mostly 80s and 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast / lower mid-Atlantic and the Ohio Valley. Given the position of the main frontal system and the northern High, most transport events tend to track near the source and/or north or northwest early this week. Conditions will be favorable for epidemic spread over broad areas of the lower mid-Atlantic and the Southeast each day, plus part of the Ohio Valley during Tuesday's events.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, August 8

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, the FL panhandle, southern AL, central and southern GA, central and eastern SC, central and eastern NC, and south-central and southeast VA. Moderate Risk in eastern MS and western AL. Low Risk for cucurbits in southern FL, northern GA, western sections of the Carolinas, northeast TN, southwest and far southwest VA, southeast WV, and southeast TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, August 9

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in GA, AL, eastern MS, the FL panhandle, northern FL, southern and western SC, southwest NC, central and northern KY, southeast IN, and southwest OH. Moderate Risk for northeast SC, NC except the southwest, southern and western VA, and southeast WV. Low risk for cucurbits in northern OH, far eastern MI, far southern ON, central and eastern PA, NJ, DE, MD, northern and eastern VA, central and southeast TN, southern FL, and near the southeast TX source. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2016

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