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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, October 28, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 25,28 October: No new reports. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 23 October: New Report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Palm Beach County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Somewhat unsettled Monday; mostly dry Tuesday. The main frontal system will remain to the north, but upper-level disturbances will create clouds and some light rain / light showers over portions of the interior sections today. Dry weather most areas on Tuesday, though there will be showers in parts of TX and perhaps along FL's east coast. Highs in the 60s to 80s, lows in the 40s to 60s.     

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible near the Gulf Coast / south-Atlantic coast. Enough clouds and light showers are present today and tonight to warrant Low risk to cucurbits near the sources in LA, AL, the eastern Carolinas, and southeast VA. Drier weather tomorrow suggest minimal risk for all areas save east-central TX.  

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, October 28

Low Risk for cucurbits near the sources in LA, southern AL, the coastal Plains of the Carolinas, and southeast VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, October 29

Moderate Risk near the TX source. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, October 25, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 25 October: No new reports. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 23 October: New Report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Palm Beach County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Mostly dry with cool to cold temperatures. High pressure sprawled over the central and eastern U.S. will govern the weather this weekend. Expect sunny to partly cloudy skies, no rain, and cold temperatures in most areas. Another front will enter the weather picture Saturday and Sunday. Other than some showers in the northern and south-central regions, its passage will be dry. Seasonally cool to cold temperatures will occur. Highs will range from the 40s far North to 80s far South. Lows running from the 20s to 50s. Many locations received their first frost / freeze of the season over the past 2 nights; more will experience their first freeze tonight.     

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in the far South. Most, if not all, locations in the Great Lakes / Ohio Valley / Appalachians / parts of the Northeast have experienced a hard frost or freeze this week. Locations in the mid-Atlantic / TN Valley will likely have their first freeze tonight. Thus, despite the clouds and rain forecast for portions of the North, minimal risk is forecast due to the end of the growing season or temperatures that are too cold. The possibility of showers in the TX / LA / AR / OK region may give rise to some disease development near the TX and LA sources.  

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, October 25

Low Risk for cucurbits near the TX source. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, October 26

Moderate Risk near the TX source. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, October 27

Moderate Risk near and north of the TX source. Low Risk for cucurbits in southern LA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, October 23, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 23 October: New Report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Palm Beach County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

*** Epidemic Update - 11-21 October: No new reports. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Light rain / showers possible northern half; mostly dry otherwise. Two cold fronts will push through the central / eastern U.S. over the next several days, one currently along the Appalachians and the other in the Midwest. Showers are likely in southern FL today, diminishing on Thursday. Light rain / showers will occur north of the Southeast / Gulf Coast states, more so Wednesday than Thursday. Otherwise, high pressure will be in control, producing dry and increasingly cooler conditions behind each front. Highs from the 40s to 80s, lows from the 20s to 50s. Many growing areas will see their first frost or freeze of the season during the midweek to late week period.    

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in parts of FL, possible other areasShowers in southern FL today are producing favorable conditions for epidemic spread. Widespread cloudiness and a chance of light rain or showers are generating slight favorable conditions in regions to the north. This persists into Thursday with less coverage.  

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, October 23

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern FL. Low Risk for central FL, for most of the mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley, southern MI and ON, and southern sections of the Northeast. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, October 24

Low Risk for cucurbits in southern FL, KY, eastern TN, western and northern NC, southern VA, southern WV, southern MI, southern ON, northern OH, northwest PA, and western NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, October 21, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 11-21 October: No new reports. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 9 October: New Report from SC. CDM has been confirmed in Berkeley County, SC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Chance of showers mainly North and far South; mostly dry in between. The weekend front is stalled off the Gulf / south-Atlantic coasts. Yet another cold front will swing through the central and eastern U.S. over the next several days. Light rain / showers will occur near the front. Light to moderate rain / showers will occur across the North and near the southern coasts. A very wide range of temperatures is expected ... with highs ranging from the 40s to 80s, and lows ranging from the 20s to 60s.    

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the lower Southeast. Due to cooling Fall temperatures and the lack of expected rainfall in most areas, conditions will be minimal to slightly favorable for epidemic spread for the majority of transport events. The exception will be in the far South, where warmer temperatures and more plentiful moisture will yield mixed (Monday) to favorable (Tuesday) conditions.  

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, October 21

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in FL westward along the Gulf Coast through southern LA. Low Risk for south-central GA / coastal SC, near the TX source, and in the Ohio Valley / Great Lakes ... most of TN and KY, IN, OH, southern MI, southern ON, and western PA and NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, October 22

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in most of FL and extreme southeast GA. Moderate Risk for the western FL panhandle, extreme southeast AL, southern GA ,and southern SC. Low Risk for southern AL, central GA, most of SC, eastern NC, both of the Virginias, MD, DE, NJ, PA, southern new England, southern VT and NH, most of NY, southern ON, OH, IN, southern MI, northeast IL, and southeast WI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, October 18, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 11-18 October: No new reports. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 9 October: New Report from SC. CDM has been confirmed in Berkeley County, SC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Variable and unsettled Friday / Saturday; mostly dry Sunday. The midweek front is stalled over the South. The next cold front will swing through the central and eastern U.S. today and Saturday. The better chances of rain are in the South (near the stalled front) and across the North (along the track of low pressure anchoring the next front). High pressure filling in behind this next cold front will dry out most areas on Sunday, accompanied by much cooler temperatures. Yet another front will enter the picture early next week. Wide range of temperatures expected, with highs in the 40s and 50s North to 70s and 80s South. Lows from the 30s to 50s with some 60s far South.   

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely for parts of the South and lower mid-Atlantic. Favorable conditions are expected near the stalled front that lies over the southern United States. Areas of lesser favorability will lie nearby. The potential for rain or showers over areas farther north yields the possibility of disease development as well, but risks will be tempered by host availability and cooler temperatures.  

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, October 18

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in the eastern FL panhandle, southern GA, southern and eastern SC, southeast NC. Moderate Risk in south-central TX, extreme southeast TX through southern sections of LA / MS / AL, and into the western FL panhandle. Low Risk for central sections of AL / GA / SC, central and eastern NC, southeast VA, southern FL, eastern WI and IL, IN, and central and southern MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, October 19

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern LA, extreme eastern NC, and extreme southeast VA. Moderate Risk for northern FL and the FL panhandle, southern AL and GA, the coastal plains of SC and NC, southeast VA. Low Risk for central and southern FL, central sections of AL / GA / Carolinas, south-central VA, plus large portions of the Ohio Valley / Great Lakes / Northeast, including eastern WI and IL, MI, IN, KY, OH, WV, southern ON, PA, most of NY and NJ, Long Island, southern New England, and southern VT and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, October 20

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL. Low Risk for northern FL, the eastern panhandle, southern GA, eastern WI, northeast IL, MI, far northern IN and OH, northwest PA, and western NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

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