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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, April 10, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 1-10 April: No new reports or updates. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 15 March: New Report from FL. CDM has been reported in a research plot in Collier County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Lower Southeast

A period of unsettled weather is coming. Look for another mostly dry day today (save for a few showers in southern FL) as the Bermuda High begins to shift east. A strong Spring cold front ... this morning still west of the MS River ... will approach on Thursday. Showers and storms will spread across the region ahead of the front. Highs in the 80s, lows mostly 60s. Active weather will likely continue through the weekend, as the front moves into the region on Friday and then stalls over FL / Gulf of Mexico Saturday and Sunday.   


OUTLOOK:

Overview: Potential for epidemic spread to the north. Transport events move to the northwest on Wednesday, and to the NNW / north on Thursday. Conditions for survivable transport and deposition will be variable and remain in the slightly favorable to moderately favorable categories. Epidemic spread is possible along the peninsula, into the FL panhandle, and for nearby areas of AL and GA.     

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, April 10

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in south-central and most of southern FL. Low Risk for far southern FL, the FL panhandle, and nearby sections of southeast AL / southwest GA. Minimal Risk otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, April 11

Moderate Risk for central FL. Low Risk to cucurbits in southern FL and northern FLMinimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, April 8, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 1-8 April: No new reports or updates. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 15 March: New Report from FL. CDM has been reported in a research plot in Collier County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Lower Southeast

Mostly dry with seasonal to warm temperatures. High pressure has now shifted off the East Coast into a Bermuda High position. Skies will be sunny to partly cloudy with winds mostly out of the southeast. Dry weather will prevail, though there may be a shower by Tuesday night near the Gulf Coast or along the southeast FL coast. The potential for Gulf Coast showers arises from the approach of a strong frontal system which will arrive in earnest during the mid-week period. Highs in the 70s and 80s, lows in the 50s and 60s.   


OUTLOOK:

Overview:  Possible epidemic spread to the Gulf Coast? Transport events track to the northwest each day. Conditions are quite unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition for Monday's event, with corresponding minimal risk. Similar conditions are expected for Tuesday's event. However, there will be a small increase in favorability, enough to push cucurbits in some areas into the Low Risk category. This will not be at the source, where no rain is expected, but rather near the Gulf Coast where the arrival of any live spores Wednesday night will coincide with a chance of showers. Epidemic spread will be more likely during the Wednesday to Friday time frame, when conditions become more favorable in association with the approaching frontal system.     

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, April 8

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, April 9

Low Risk to cucurbits in the FL panhandle and parts of far southern ALMinimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, April 5, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 1-5 April: No new reports or updates. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 15 March: New Report from FL. CDM has been reported in a research plot in Collier County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Lower Southeast

Unsettled Friday; dry Saturday and Sunday. The frontal system that arrived mid-week is moving through the FL peninsula today, accompanied by clouds and showers. High pressure will set up along the East Coast afterward. It will be the dominant influence for the weekend weather. Highs in the 60s and 70s warming to 70s and 80s. Lows in the 40s and 50s with a few 60s southern FL.  


OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in southern FL on Friday. Transport events track eastward today. Conditions are quite favorable but epidemic spread to the north appears unlikely. Dry weather and unfavorable conditions for epidemic spread are forecast for Saturday's and Sunday's events. Sunday's events approach the central Gulf Coast late on the second day of travel. However, abundant sunshine will have two days to kill any airborne spores, and no rain is forecast for that region early next week. Any risk from Sunday's events should be minimal (<5%). Saturday's events move southwest and west.     

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, April 5

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, April 6

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, April 7

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, April 3, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 1-3 April: No new reports or updates. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 15 March: New Report from FL. CDM has been reported in a research plot in Collier County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Lower Southeast

Active weather. A stalled front over the Gulf of Mexico / FL has become invigorated by upper-level energy moving out of the southwest U.S. Clouds and showers / rain will overspread the region from west to east today, continue on Thursday, and likely persist into Friday. Highs in the 70s and 80s today; 80s South on Thursday with 60s and 70s elsewhere under clouds and rain. Lows in the 50s and 60s.  


OUTLOOK:

Overview: Transport northward into central FL a distinct possibility. Skies are still mostly sunny across southern FL this morning. Increased clouds and or showers will arrive last here as the main storm system is still well off to the north and west. This results in slightly favorable conditions for Wednesday's transport events (moving northwest then northeast then northeast later this afternoon). Thursday will bring mixed conditions for survivable transport and deposition (events track north then northeast). Risk to cucurbits will be highly elevated on Friday for southern FL, and perhaps farther northward as well, depending on the speed of the weather system and the exact track of the transport events.      

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, April 3

Low Risk for cucurbits in portions of the lower half of the FL peninsula. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, April 4

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern FL and most of central FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, April 1, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 1 April: No new reports or updates. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 15 March: New Report from FL. CDM has been reported in a research plot in Collier County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Lower Southeast

Variable, unsettled weather this week. Scattered showers will occur today ahead of a dissipating cold front. A second front, close behind the first, will usher in drier and somewhat cooler weather to the region on Tuesday. Showers will return to the region during midweek. Highs in the 70s and 80s, lows mostly 50s and 60s.  


OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible today, unlikely Tuesday. Mixed conditions for epidemic spread are predominant today as transport events track ENE. Sunny skies are expected on Tuesday; events move slowly SSE.      

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, April 1

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, April 2

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

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