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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, July 12, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 12 July: New Reports from OH, NJ, and DE. CDM has been reported in Seneca and Sandusky Counties, OH, Hunterdon County, NJ and Kent County, DE. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

*** Epidemic Update - 10 July: First reports from Ontario and PA. New Reports from NC, OH. Updates from DE, NC, OH, AL. CDM has been reported in Elgin and Chatham-Kent counties, ON; Bucks County, PA; Edgecombe, Rowan, and Wilson Counties, NC; and Huron County, OH. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S.

Unsettled mid-Atlantic and Southeast. The midweek front is stalled along the Atlantic Coast and runs back through the southern U.S.. High pressure over the northern U.S. / southern Canada extends through the Great Lakes into the central United States. The front will dissipate, remaining a focus for showers and storms as it does. The High over the northern areas shifts east and merges with existing high pressure offshore, creating a new, broad area of high pressure centered over New England. Meanwhile, a new front will bring some showers to the northern Plains, and showers will enter parts of the southern Plains on Sunday. Largely dry for most of the Great Lakes / Ohio Valley / mid-South through the weekend, though eastern sections of those regions could get a shower. High in the 80s to 100s, lows mostly 60s and 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Due to the arrangement of the various weather features, most transport events will have a westward tendency to them ... near sources and southwest Friday, west to northwest Saturday, and curves to the northwest and north Sunday. Conditions will be favorable for survivable transport and deposition in large sections of the Southeast and mid-Atlantic, especially Friday and Saturday. Cucurbits to the west and north of these regions will see possible disease development at lower levels of risk, as will cucurbits in and around Lake Erie.  

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, July 12

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL, southern GA, central and eastern NC, southeast VA, northern VA, MD, southern PA, and NJ. Low to Moderate Risk to the west of this region ... FL panhandle, AL, northern GA, western Carolinas, much of western and central VA, and eastern WV. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, July 13

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL, GA, the Carolinas, southern VA, DE, MD, western NJ, and central and eastern PA. Moderate Risk for the FL panhandle, eastern and southern AL, southern MS, extreme southeast LA. Low Risk in eastern TN, eastern KY, extreme southwest VA, southwest WV, southern OH, northern OH, northwest PA, and western NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, July 14

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL, GA, and the western Carolinas. Moderate Risk for the FL panhandle, AL, eastern TN, southeast KY, and southern VA except the southeast section. Low Risk for many areas ... northern OH, southeast MI, southern ON, and near the Atlantic Coast from eastern NC through Cape Cod (eastern areas of NC / VA / MD, DE, NJ, eastern PA, southeast NY, Long Island, CT, RI, southeast MA), and also near the TX source. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, July 10, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 10 July: First reports from Ontario and PA. New Reports from NC, OH. Updates from DE, NC, OH, AL. CDM has been reported in Elgin and Chatham-Kent counties, ON; Bucks County, PA; Edgecombe, Rowan, and Wilson, NC; and Huron, OH. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

*** Epidemic Update - 8 July: New Reports from AL and NC. CDM has been reported in Lee County, AL and Lenoir and New Hanover Counties, NC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S.

Unsettled East; mostly dry Central. A changing jet stream pattern will push a cold front (now in the central U.S.) into the East and mid-South by Thursday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will be numerous near the front with heavy rain expected in some areas of the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic. More isolated to scattered shower activity will occur farther ahead of the front. Highs in the 80s and 90s with 100s Plains; lows from the 50s North to 70s South and Plains.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the lower Lakes and East Coast. Transport events are moving to the east or northeast from most sources. Conditions are favorable for epidemic spread ... yet again ... up and down the East Coast and around the lower Lakes. High pressure moving into the Great Lakes behind the cold front will result in much less favorable conditions on Thursday for the OH and ON events, but highly favorable conditions will exist to the east. Some local disease development is possible near the TX source.  

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, July 10

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern ON, northern OH, northwest PA, western NY, southern FL, the FL panhandle, central and southern AL, GA, western NC, western and southern SC, northern VA, MD, DE, southeast PA, and NJ. Moderate Risk for central and northern FL, eastern SC, central and eastern NC, southside and central VA, southeast NY, Long Island, and southern New England, and deep South TXMinimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, July 11

HIGH Risk for cucurbits along the entirety of the East Coast ... from CT / RI / southern MA southward through southeast NY, Long Island, eastern PA, NJ, eastern MD, DE, central and eastern VA, the Carolinas, GA, the southern 1/2 of AL, and FL. Low Risk near the source in deep South TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, July 8, 2013
 

 *** Epidemic Update - 8 July: New Reports from AL and NC. CDM has been reported in Lee County, AL and Lenoir and New Hanover Counties, NC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 5 July: First reports from OH and NJ. New Report from SC. CDM has been reported in Gloucester County, NJ; Medina and Wayne Counties, OH; and Anderson County, SC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S.

Chance of showers across the North, Gulf, and East. The main weather feature is the Bermuda High centered off the U.S. East Coast, though it is not as strong as over the weekend. Warm, humid air covers most of the central and eastern United States. A frontal system is strung out over the far northern U.S. / southern Canada will be a focus for rainfall. Isolated to scattered showers will fall in the East and in the Gulf Coast states. Mostly dry Plains into South-central. Highs in the 80s and 90s with some 100s Plains. Lows in the 60s and 70s. 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely northeast OH, parts of Southeast and mid-Atlantic. Most transport events track to the east or northeast. Mixed conditions are dominant during the majority of the events, with notable exceptions near the lower Lakes on Tuesday and in parts of the Southeast and lower mid-Atlantic on Monday. Epidemic spread is possible up and down the East Coast, from southern Canada and all of New England southward through GA / AL / FL.  

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, July 8

HIGH Risk for cucurbits central and southern AL, the western Carolinas, northeast SC into east-central and eastern NC and southeast VA. Moderate Risk for GA, parts of the central Carolinas, central and eastern VA, most of MD, DE, eastern PA, NJ. Long Island, southern New England, northeast OH, western PA, and the lower Rio Grande Valley. Low Risk for eastern NY, VT / NH / northern MA, southern Quebec, and FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, July 9

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northeast OH. Moderate Risk for most of the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states ... AL, GA, the Carolinas, all but southwest VA, MD, DE, NJ, southeast PA, and western PA. Low Risk for FL, eastern NY, southern Quebec, Long Island, and all the New England states. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, July 5, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 5 July: First reports from OH and NJ. New Report from SC. CDM has been reported in Gloucester County, NJ; Medina and Wayne Counties, OH; and Anderson County, SC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 3 July: New Reports from AL, SC, and NC. CDM has been reported in Macon County, AL; Horry County SC; and Hertford and Wake County, NC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S.

Unsettled East; mostly dry Central. The dominant weather feature this weekend is the strengthening Bermuda High centered along and off the Carolina coast. Active weather will encompass a broad swath of the eastern U.S. from Gulf Coast northeastward through the lower Lakes, generally along and west of the Appalachians. Isolated to scattered showers will occur east of the mountains on one day or another and some locations will remain dry. Mostly dry conditions in the central U.S. except for the far north late Saturday and Sunday. Highs in the 80s and 90s, warmest south-central U.S., lows in the 60s and 70s. 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast into the southern Appalachians / eastern TN Valley. Most transport events curl to the northwest / north and later northeast. Conditions will be most favorable for the events out of the Southeast and out of northeast OH, and this is where the highest risk will be concentrated. More areas in the eastern U.S. will have cucurbits at Low to Moderate Risk.  

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, July 5

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL, AL, most of GA, SC, western NC, and northeast OH. Moderate Risk for eastern NC, central and eastern VA. Low Risk for western and southwest VA, WV, central and western MD, southern PA, and southern ON. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, July 5

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in GA, AL, the western Carolinas, northeast OH, and the FL panhandle. Moderate Risk for the FL peninsula, southeast GA, and central and eastern SC. Low Risk for eastern MS, northern AL, central and eastern TN, western and southwest VA, and west-central NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, July 7

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in western panhandle of FL, eastern MS, AL, northern GA, eastern TN, the western Carolinas, northeast OH, northwest PA, and western NY. Moderate Risk for most of FL and GA. Low Risk for the eastern Carolinas, VA, MD, DE., southeast PA, NJ, Long Island, southern New England, deep South TX, and southern ON. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, July 3, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 3 July: New Reports from AL, SC, and NC. CDM has been reported in Macon County, AL; Horry County SC; and Hertford and Wake County, NC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 1 July: New Report from NC. CDM has been reported on cucumber in Martin County, NC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern / Eastern U.S.

Wet and unsettled East. The stationary front in the East is drifting west and beginning to dissipate. The axis of heavier precipitation will begin to shift away from the East Coast on Thursday, as strengthening high pressure pushes westward from the Atlantic, but a good chance of showers will remain for many areas near the coast. Highs mostly 80s and 90s, lows mostly 60s and 70s. 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Continued likelihood of epidemic spread in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states. Epidemic spread will also be possible in other regions (Low to Moderate Risk) as transport events track to the northwest and north. Washout during the first 8 to 12 hours of transport is likely given the high probability of rain and the amounts expected. However, events are moving fairly quickly, and any breaks in the rainfall will allow airborne spores to cover substantial distances before later washout. 

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, July 3

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in the mid-Atlantic and Southeast, from NJ and southeast PA down through MD, DE, VA, the Carolinas, GA, AL, FL, and southeast MS. Moderate Risk on the western and northern fringes of this region, eastern LA, MS, northern AL, eastern 1/2 of TN and KY, WV, southeast OH, PA, southern NY, CT, and Long Island. Low Risk for the rest of NY, southern sections of VT and NH, and southern New England. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, July 4

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in the FL panhandle, AL, most of GA, western sections of the Carolinas and VA, southern WV, southeast KY, and central and eastern TN. Moderate Risk for FL, southeast GA, eastern SC, and central and eastern sections of NC and VA. Low Risk for the upper mid-Atlantic states (MD/DE/PA/NJ), southern 1/2 of NY, southern New England, Long Island, southern VT and NH, most of WV, southern and eastern OH, central and eastern KY, and central TN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

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