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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - March 6, 2013
 

*** Forecast Note - 4 March: Welcome to the 2013 CDM forecasts. Forecasts begin with a source reported in the sentinel plot in Miami-Dade County, FL. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 4 March: First Report from FL. CDM has been reported on multiple hosts in the sentinel plot in Miami-Dade County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***   

 

Regional Weather: Lower Southeast

Breezy, cool, and dry. A strong late-winter weather system impacting the mid-Atlantic will drag a cold front through southern FL. A few showers may occur today near the front. High pressure over the central U.S. is building into the region. Quite cool with highs in the 50s and 60s, lows in the 30s and 40s.


OUTLOOK:

Overview: Unfavorable conditions for epidemic spread. Events move east today, south on Thursday ... away from other growing regions. Only increased cloudiness and a very slight chance of showers are forecast near the source. 

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, March 6

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, March 7

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - March 4, 2013
 

*** Forecast Note - 4 March: Welcome to the 2013 CDM forecasts. Forecasts begin with a source reported in the sentinel plot in Miami-Dade County, FL. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 4 March: First Report from FL. CDM has been reported on multiple hosts in the sentinel plot in Miami-Dade County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***   

 

Regional Weather: Lower Southeast

Showers moving into the region on Tuesday. High pressure now centered over FL will give way to a strong cold front and associated showers on Tuesday. Highs in the 50s and 60s Monday, 50s to 70s on Tuesday. Lows in the 30s and 40s tonight, 30s to 50s Tuesday night.


OUTLOOK:

Overview: Unfavorable conditions for the early-week transport events. Events out of southern FL curl southwest on Monday and trek to the ENE on Tuesday. Sunny skies are expected during each event. No rain expected while the events are near land. 

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, March 4

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, March 5

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - November 9, 2012
 

*** Forecast Note - 9 November: Today's forecasts will conclude the 2012 CDM forecasting season. We hope the forecasts and other information on the website have aided everyone in the management of another active disease season. Please do not hesitate to contact a member of our staff if you have any questions or comments! TK ***

*** Epidemic Update - 2-9 November: No new reports or updates. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***   

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Mostly dry with a warming trend; showers TX / MS Valley Sunday. High pressure will rule the weather this weekend for most areas, with sunny to partly cloudy skies and little to no rain. A frontal system now in the western U.S. will move into the central U.S. with time, spreading showers into TX and the lower MS Valley on Sunday. Highs mostly in the 60s and 70s warming to the 70s and 80s by Sunday. Lows 30s and 40s East with 50s and 60s elsewhere.


OUTLOOK:

Overview: Unfavorable conditions dominant; increased risk south-central areas on Sunday. Nearly all transport events are benign this forecast period. The notable exceptions are the events out of TX and southern LA on Sunday. Increasingly favorable conditions will produce Low to Moderate Risk for the LA events and High Risk near the TX source. All other events will encounter unfavorable conditions for epidemic spread. 

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, November 9

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, November 10

Low Risk to cucurbits near the TX source. Minimal Risk to cucurbits.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, November 11

HIGH Risk to cucurbits near the TX source, tapering to Low later in the event. Low to Moderate Risk in LA and southwest MS. Minimal Risk other areas.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2012

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - July 28, 2010

 

*** Epidemic Update - 28 July: New counties in SC, DE, and MI. CDM has been confirmed in Horry County, SC, Kent County, DE, and Jackson County, MI. Please see the Epidemic History page for further details. *** 

*** Epidemic Update - 26 July: New counties in PA and MI. CDM has been confirmed in Centre County, PA, and Clinton and St. Claire Counties, MI. Please see the Epidemic History page for further details. ***


Regional Weather: Central / Eastern U.S., southern Canada

Cold front moving into Great Lakes / upper Ohio Valley today, Northeast / mid-Atlantic / lower Ohio Valley on Thursday. Scattered showers and storms are expected along and ahead of the cold front as it moves east/south. Active weather will occur in TX on Wednesday also with the moisture feed off the Gulf. High pressure behind the front will generate dry weather over the Great Lakes on Thursday and bring some cooler temperatures. Today's shower activity in TX will lessen on Thursday. Highs in the 80's and 90's with some 70's North. Lows in the 60's and 70's with some 50's in the North.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Favorable weather on Wednesday around most of the source regions. Moderate to High Risk over a broad portion of the Great Lakes, parts of the Southeast, and portions of TX. Conditions improve somewhat on Thursday. Higher risks shift toward the eastern Seaboard.

  Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, July 28


Moderate to HIGH Risk to cucurbits in and around the southern Great Lakes, including southern Ontario, MI, Ohio, PA, and NY. Low Risk extends farther into upstate NY, northern New England, and southern Quebec. Moderate to HIGH Risk is forecast in the lower mid-Atlantic and Southeast, maximized in the areas of greatest cloud cover and observed / anticipated shower activity. HIGH Risk scenarios are also found in TX as the events move northwest or north. Minimal risk most other areas.


  Risk Prediction Map for Day 2: Thursday, July 29


Elevated risk shifts toward the East Coast as the front progresses east, high pressure moves over the Great Lakes, and conditions become less favorable in TX. A mixture of risks to cucurbits, some Moderate to HIGH, is forecast in the eastern states from the FL panhandle through southern New England. Lingering clouds or showers brings some risk to cucurbits south of the lower Lakes. Low to Moderate Risk for the TX events. Minimal risk most other areas.  
Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - July 21, 2010

 

*** Epidemic Update - 21 July: New counties in MD, TX, and MI. CDM has been confirmed in Wicomico County, MD, Houston County, TX, and Ingham County, MI. Please see the Epidemic History page for further details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 19 July: New counties in NC and TX. CDM has been confirmed in Robeson County, NC and Brazos County, TX. Please see the Epidemic History page for further details. ***


Regional Weather: Central / Eastern U.S., southern Canada

Variable weather across the North; mostly dry and hot southern U.S. with scattered showers S/SE TX. A frontal system snakes its way from the Midwest through the upper Ohio Valley and into the upper mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The Bermuda High centered offshore extends well westward over the South, pumping in warm, humid air. Expect scattered showers many areas today with the north-central, lower Southeast, and much of the Plains staying dry. On Thursday ... the eastern side of the front sags south, the western end shifts north into the Great Lakes, and the upper-level ridge of high pressure over the southern U.S. strengthens. Active weather moves into the north-central U.S. and Great Lakes. A few isolated to scattered showers are possible Ohio Valley and Southeast. More showers for south and southeast TX are anticipated. Overall a drier day on Thursday. Hot summertime temperatures are on tap with increasing heat south the wavy frontal boundary. Highs in the 80's and 90's with a few 100's. Lows in the 60's and 70's.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: The most favorable conditions and highest risks to cucurbits are along and east of the lower Lakes on Wednesday. Mixed conditions will be found in TX and parts of the mid-Atlantic. On Thursday ... mixed to favorable conditions in southern and eastern TX; favorable conditions in the upper Midwest will spread into the Great Lakes as the day progresses, and risks will be elevated near a few sources in the Southeast / lower mid-Atlantic.

  Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, July 21


HIGH and Moderate Risk to cucurbits near to and east of the sources in the lower Great Lakes, with Low Risk to some surrounding areas. Mixed conditions in parts of the mid-Atlantic and TX lead to Moderate Risk for some of these events. Minimal risk most other areas.


  Risk Prediction Map for Day 2: Thursday, July 22


HIGH Risk to cucurbits in southern TX and parts of WI. Deteriorating conditions in MI lead to Moderate Risk around those sources with lower risk farther south and east. Mixed conditions are expected for a few transport events in NC and south-central and eastern TX, with Moderate Risk to cucurbits. Low to minimal risk otherwise. 
Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE

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