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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, October 21, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 11-21 October: No new reports. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 9 October: New Report from SC. CDM has been confirmed in Berkeley County, SC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Chance of showers mainly North and far South; mostly dry in between. The weekend front is stalled off the Gulf / south-Atlantic coasts. Yet another cold front will swing through the central and eastern U.S. over the next several days. Light rain / showers will occur near the front. Light to moderate rain / showers will occur across the North and near the southern coasts. A very wide range of temperatures is expected ... with highs ranging from the 40s to 80s, and lows ranging from the 20s to 60s.    

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the lower Southeast. Due to cooling Fall temperatures and the lack of expected rainfall in most areas, conditions will be minimal to slightly favorable for epidemic spread for the majority of transport events. The exception will be in the far South, where warmer temperatures and more plentiful moisture will yield mixed (Monday) to favorable (Tuesday) conditions.  

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, October 21

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in FL westward along the Gulf Coast through southern LA. Low Risk for south-central GA / coastal SC, near the TX source, and in the Ohio Valley / Great Lakes ... most of TN and KY, IN, OH, southern MI, southern ON, and western PA and NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, October 22

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in most of FL and extreme southeast GA. Moderate Risk for the western FL panhandle, extreme southeast AL, southern GA ,and southern SC. Low Risk for southern AL, central GA, most of SC, eastern NC, both of the Virginias, MD, DE, NJ, PA, southern new England, southern VT and NH, most of NY, southern ON, OH, IN, southern MI, northeast IL, and southeast WI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, October 18, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 11-18 October: No new reports. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 9 October: New Report from SC. CDM has been confirmed in Berkeley County, SC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Variable and unsettled Friday / Saturday; mostly dry Sunday. The midweek front is stalled over the South. The next cold front will swing through the central and eastern U.S. today and Saturday. The better chances of rain are in the South (near the stalled front) and across the North (along the track of low pressure anchoring the next front). High pressure filling in behind this next cold front will dry out most areas on Sunday, accompanied by much cooler temperatures. Yet another front will enter the picture early next week. Wide range of temperatures expected, with highs in the 40s and 50s North to 70s and 80s South. Lows from the 30s to 50s with some 60s far South.   

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely for parts of the South and lower mid-Atlantic. Favorable conditions are expected near the stalled front that lies over the southern United States. Areas of lesser favorability will lie nearby. The potential for rain or showers over areas farther north yields the possibility of disease development as well, but risks will be tempered by host availability and cooler temperatures.  

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, October 18

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in the eastern FL panhandle, southern GA, southern and eastern SC, southeast NC. Moderate Risk in south-central TX, extreme southeast TX through southern sections of LA / MS / AL, and into the western FL panhandle. Low Risk for central sections of AL / GA / SC, central and eastern NC, southeast VA, southern FL, eastern WI and IL, IN, and central and southern MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, October 19

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern LA, extreme eastern NC, and extreme southeast VA. Moderate Risk for northern FL and the FL panhandle, southern AL and GA, the coastal plains of SC and NC, southeast VA. Low Risk for central and southern FL, central sections of AL / GA / Carolinas, south-central VA, plus large portions of the Ohio Valley / Great Lakes / Northeast, including eastern WI and IL, MI, IN, KY, OH, WV, southern ON, PA, most of NY and NJ, Long Island, southern New England, and southern VT and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, October 20

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL. Low Risk for northern FL, the eastern panhandle, southern GA, eastern WI, northeast IL, MI, far northern IN and OH, northwest PA, and western NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, October 16, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 11-16 October: No new reports. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 9 October: New Report from SC. CDM has been confirmed in Berkeley County, SC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Unsettled period. Cold front now extending from the Great Lakes to eastern TX moves east during midweek. Light to moderate rain is expected with the frontal passage. The front will near the Atlantic and Gulf coasts Thursday night as another front (mostly dry) drops into the northern Plains / Midwest. Highs ranging from the 50s to the 80s, lows from the 30s to 60s.   

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely for much of the east-central and eastern U.S.. The most favorable conditions will occur along and west of the Appalachians for Wednesday's transport events. Favorable conditions will generally overlay the mountains on Thursday, with mixed conditions farther to the south and east. Slightly favorable conditions will be more dominant in the Ohio Valley / Great Lakes / Northeast, where cooler air should serve to temper disease activity.  

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, October 16

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in south-central TX, southeast LA, MS, northern AL, far northern GA, Tn, most of KY, far southwest sections of NC and VA, WV, all but northwest OH, northern and western PA, and western and central NY. Low Risk for the FL peninsula, eastern IL and WI, IN, MI, northwest OH, southern ON, portions of central and southeast NY, northeast PA, northern NJ, southern New England, and southern VT and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, October 17

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern AL and GA, western NC, estern TN and KY, western and northern VA, WV, southeast OH, southern PA, most of MD and DE, NJ. Moderate Risk for southern LA, eastern MS, the FL panhandle, southern AL and GA, SC, central and eastern NC, and southeast VA. Low Risk for southeast WI, eastern IL, central and southern MI, IN, OH, most of NY, northern PA, southern VT and NH, Long Island, southern New England, south-central TX,  central and western KY, and western TN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, October 14, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 11,14 October: No new reports. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 9 October: New Report from SC. CDM has been confirmed in Berkeley County, SC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Unsettled most areas. The main weather feature is the frontal system evolving in the lee of the Rockies. Rain and showers will impact the Plains on Monday, then move into the Great Lakes / Ohio Valley / lower MS Valley on Tuesday. A few showers will occur Monday near a front stalled along the Appalachians. Considerable cloudiness, with light rain or drizzle, is expected in parts of the lower mid-Atlantic  / Southeast ... in association with the pesky low pressure system just offshore. Highs in the 60s to 80s, lows in the 40s to 60s, with cooler readings behind the central U.S. front. 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in parts of the Ohio Valley, possible in other areas. The potential for epidemic spread is largely confined to the eastern areas today, where cloudiness is prevalent but not much rain is falling. As favorable weather moves east of the MS River on Tuesday, risk elevates from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes.  

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, October 14

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in eastern NC / southeast VA, western PA into central and eastern NY, and near the TX source. Low Risk for SC, central and western NC, southwest VA, most of WV, far western MD, and central PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, October 15

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in eastern IL, IN, far western OH, western and central KY, western TN, and near the TX source. Moderate Risk for eastern WI, MI, southern ON, most of OH, eastern KY, central and eastern TN, and northern AL. Low Risk for most of LA, southwest MS, the FL peninsula, central AL, eastern NC / southeast VA, far western NY and PA, and western WV. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, October 11, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 11 October: No new reports. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 9 October: New Report from SC. CDM has been confirmed in Berkeley County, SC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Unsettled mid-Atlantic and central U.S.; mostly dry otherwise. Persistent low pressure system near the VA capes will spread showers into the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Showers will move from the Plains into the Midwest / Great Lakes in association with a cold front. Elsewhere, high pressure over the eastern U.S. dominates with dry weather. Highs in the 60s to 80s ,lows in the 40s to 60s.  

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the mid-Atlantic and near the TX source. Favorable weather in the mid-Atlantic will be fringed by slightly favorable to mixed conditions. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions will also be found near the central U.S. cold front as it moves east into the Great Lakes / Ohio Valley Saturday and Sunday.  

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, October 11

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in NJ, most of PA, MD, DE, northeast WV, and central and eastern VA. Moderate Risk in northeast NC. Low Risk for Long Island, northern and western PA, central WV, southwest VA, central and eastern NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, October 12

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in south-central TX, NJ, southern PA, MD, DE, and northern and eastern VA. Moderate Risk for southwest VA, southeast WV, northern and eastern NC, eastern IL, northern and central IN and OH, southeast WI, MI, and southern ON. Low Risk for southern New England, Long Island, southeast NY, northern NJ, northeast PA, western TN, western and northern KY, and southern IN and OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, October 13

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in south-central TX, southeast VA, eastern MD, DE, and southern NJ. Moderate Risk for northern NC, southern and western VA, WV, eastern OH, western PA, far western NY, and nearby southern ON. Low Risk in southern LA, southern and western NC, eastern KY, central OH, southern ON, northern VA, western MD, central and eastern PA, western NY, northern NJ, and Long Island. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

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