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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, September 11, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 11 September: Updates from a few areasPlease see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 9 September: New Report from SC. CDM has been reported in Charleston County, SC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Active weather. Cold front now stretching from southern Canada into the Plains will press to the south and east over the next several days, urged along by cool Canadian high pressure. This front features more rain and showers than some other recent ones. Greater amounts will fall toward the northern areas. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s. Cooling temperatures late Thursday and Thursday night in the North.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely from the Ohio Valley / Great Lakes into the Northeast. Most of Wednesday's transport events head to the east or northeast ahead of the cold front. Thursday's events move east / northeast from the sources east of the mountains. From the sources west of the mountains, events track to the southeast. Conditions will be most favorable along and ahead of the front ... Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Wednesday, Ohio Valley / lower Lakes / Northeast on Thursday, and parts of FL each day. Areas of lesser risk to cucurbits will be found near the borders of the High Risk regions.   

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, September 11

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern FL, central and eastern TN, central and eastern KY, western NC, western VA, WV, OH, most of PA, central and western NY, southern ON, southern MI, and northeast IN. Moderate Risk for southeast WI, central MI, southern IN, western KY, southern TN, northern AL and GA, the foothills of SC / NC / VA, most of FL, southern GA, and southern TX. Low Risk in DE, southeast PA, NJ, Long Island, eastern and northern NY, all of New England but central and eastern ME. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, September 12

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL, western NC, the eastern half of TN, central and eastern KY, OH, WV, western and northern VA, MD, DE, NJ, PA, Long Island, NY, and New England except northern and central ME. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in most of SC and NC, southeast VA, west-central TN, western KY, deep south TX, and southern IN. Low Risk for northern AL and GA, southern GA, northern FL and the FL panhandle. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, September 9, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 9 September: New Report from SC. CDM has been reported in Charleston County, SC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 6 September: New Reports from MD, MA, and MI. CDM has been confirmed in Montgomery County, MD; Essex County, MA; and Clinton County, MI. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Mostly dry; isolated to scattered showers varying areas. High pressure settling off the mid-Atlantic coast bring fairly tranquil weather to most regions early this week. Moist flows off the Atlantic and Gulf will cause some showers in parts of FL and TX. Some showers will fall near a frontal system in the Great Lakes / southern Canada / Northeast. Showers are possible in a few other areas each day, but coverage and amounts will be limited. Highs in the 70s Northeast to low 100s Plains / Midwest. Lows mostly 60s and 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in some areas each day. Most transport events curve to the north and northeast today, northeast and east on Tuesday. Conditions for survivable transport and deposition vary widely from day to day and region to region, though unfavorable to slightly favorable conditions will be dominant. The greatest favorability will be found on Monday near the Great Lakes.   

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, September 9

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in much of lower MI. Moderate Risk in southern FL, western TN / southwest KY, northern WV, western PA, central and northern OH, southern ON, southeast MI, and deep south TX. Low Risk in all of FL except the South, GA, AL, central and eastern TN, all of NC except the central sections, southeast and southwest VA, southeast KY, southern and central WV, western and central NY, southwest MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, September 10

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern FL, deep south TX, and the mountain counties of eastern WV, western and southwest VA, and western NC. Low Risk for southeast WI and most of lower MI, VT / NH / MA / CT, FL (all but the southern sections), southern LA, eastern MS, AL, southern and western GA, TN, KY, western WV, southern OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 6, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 6 September: New Reports from MD, MA, and MI. CDM has been confirmed in Montgomery County, MD; Essex County, MA; and Clinton County, MI. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

*** Epidemic Update - 4 September: New Reports from KY, SC, and MI. CDM has been reported in Allen County, KY; Beaufort and Colleton Counties, SC; and Van Buren County, MI. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Dry weather most locations; showers moving in from the north over the weekend. The mid-week cold front is dissipating over the South. Another cold front will enter northern areas Saturday continue farther south on Sunday. Some showers are expected along the immediate Gulf Coast. Scattered showers will accompany the cold front Saturday and Sunday. Otherwise, no rain is expected under sunny to partly cloudy skies. Wide range of temperatures, with 60s and 70s for highs in northern areas ranging to 90s and 100s South and Plains. Lows mostly from the 50s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in the Deep South and along / ahead of the cold front. Transport events move in a variety of directions over the next 3 days governed by the position of the dominant high pressure (Ohio Valley / Appalachians, shifting east). Most events of note, associated with the cold front, will be moving east to northeast. Conditions during the transport events in the North (Saturday) and North and Central (Sunday) will be slightly favorable to mixed in most cases, though some High Risk is evident in the Great Lakes on Saturday.   

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 6

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL and deep South TX. Low Risk in northern FL and the panhandle, and southern sections of GA / AL / MS / LA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 7

HIGH Risk to cucurbits in eastern MI and southern ON. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southeast WI, central and southern MI, the FL peninsula, and deep south TX. Low Risk in the FL panhandle, southern sections of LA / MS / AL/ GA, the eastern slopes of the southern Appalachians, northern OH, northwest PA, and most of NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, September 8

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in WV, eastern OH, western and northern PA, most of NY, southern VT and NH, southern New England, deep south TX, and central and southern FL. Low Risk for southern and eastern SC / southeast NC, the western Carolinas and western VA, northern and eastern TN, KY, southeast IL, most of IN, western and central OH, northern areas of VA and MD, southeast PA, central and northern NJ, and Long Island. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, September 4, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 4 September: New Reports from KY, SC, and MI. CDM has been reported in Allen County, KY; Beaufort and Colleton Counties, SC; and Van Buren County, MI. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 2 September: No new reports or updates. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***  

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Mostly dry; showers possible Gulf Coast and Northeast. The early-week front is dissipating near the Gulf Coast while another front is moving into southern Canada / northern U.S.. Dry weather will dominate for the next several days. Scattered showers will occur in the deep South near the dying front. There may also be a few showers in the Northeast in association with the new front. Amounts will be lighter than in previous cases, as the airmass ahead of the northern front is drier. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s, with some 60s / 40s parts of the North behind the northern cold front.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in the Deep South and parts of the Northeast. The transport events of note are those out of the southern-most sources (generally moving slowly near the launch points) and those in the Northeast (east on Wednesday, south to southeast on Thursday). Neither of the two fronts will be particularly active during the next several days, so no favorable weather is expected in large-scale terms. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions will occur from the South to the southern Atlantic coast, and in the Northeast. Otherwise, unfavorable conditions hold sway.   

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, September 4

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in FL, southeast LA, and southern sections of MS / AL / GA. Low Risk in deep south TX, central AL and GA, eastern SC, southeast NC, northern PA, most of NY, southern New England, southern VT and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, September 5

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in FL, southern LA, and far southern portions of MS / AL / GA. Low Risk in south-central AL and GA, eastern sections of SC and NC, Long Island, southern New England, and deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, September 2, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 2 September: No new reports or updates. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 30 August: New Reports from KY, IN, SC, and NC. CDM has been reported in Harrison, Daviess, and McLean Counties, KY; Knox County, IN; Lexington, Sumter, and Darlington Counties, SC; and Chowan County, NC. Please see the Epidemic History for details. *** 

 

Regional Weather: Central and Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Unsettled South and East. High pressure over the upper Midwest will move a cold front toward the southern and eastern U.S. early this week. Scattered to numerous shower or storms will occur along and ahead of the front, affecting most growing locations Monday. Unsettled weather will push closer to the Atlantic and Gulf coasts on Tuesday. Highs mostly 70s to 90s, lows mostly 50s to 70s. 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the South and Northeast. Most transport events move to the east and northeast on Monday. Most of Tuesday's events track south or southeast (originating behind the front), but those nearer the East Coast move northeast once again. Conditions will be mixed to favorable for the large majority of Monday's events. Enhanced environmental favorability will occur near the Gulf and Atlantic coasts for Tuesday's transport events, falling off fairly rapidly farther inland.    

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, September 2

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL, southeast LA, southern MS, the FL panhandle, AL, GA, southeast NC, southern and eastern SC, NJ, northeast and eastern PA, Long Island, most of NY, southern New England, and southern VT and NH. Moderate Risk for northern SC, western and central NC, extreme southwest VA, TN, KY, WV, OH, southern IN, southern ON, western and southern PA, MD, and DE. Low Risk in deep south TX, northern FL, northeast NC, most of VA, northern NY, northern VT, northern NH, eastern ME, and far southern Quebec. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, September 3

HIGH Risk for cucurbits along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts from southeast LA across the lower Southeast through the coastal plains of the Carolinas into southeast VA, and in Long Island and southern New England into southern NH. Low Risk farther inland from these areas ... northern AL and GA, the central and western Carolinas, eastern VA and MD, DE, NJ, eastern PA, and most of NY (all but the northern sections). Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

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