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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, June 5, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 5 June: First reports from NC. New report from GA. CDM has been reported on cucumber in fields in Wayne County, NC, and in Nash County, NC. CDM has been confirmed also on field cucumber in Cook County, GA. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 3 June: New Report from FL. CDM has been reported on multiple hosts in the sentinel plot in Marion County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Active, wet weather most areas. A stationary front stretches across the southern U.S., lifting north ... another front is moving into the southern Plains ... and a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico will be moving toward FL. The result is a very good chance of rain, showers, or storms for most areas over the next several days. Highs in the 80s with some 90s south-central, lows in the 60s and 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast. Favorable weather is expected in and around the known sources (save southern TX) for the next several days. Transport events move a variety of directions, the FL and GA ones heavily influenced by the track of the system in the Gulf. The FL events move north to northeast today, west and northwest Thursday. The GA events track north / northeast each day. The events out of NC move northwest today, north on Thursday. Given the high chances of rain, the amounts expected, and the timing, washout of most airborne spores will occur fairly early during the transport events.  

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, June 5

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL (except the panhandle) and most of southern GA. Low Risk for southeast GA, central and eastern SC, and a broad area of east-central and north-central NC into southwest VA and southeast WV. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, June 6

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL (except the western panhandle), southern and western GA, and part of eastern NCLow Risk in far southeast LA, far southern MS, the western FL panhandle, central and southern AL, northern GA into the southern Appalachians, and part of east-central VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, June 3, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 3 June: New Report from FL. CDM has been reported on multiple hosts in the sentinel plot in Marion County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 27 May: First report from TX. CDM has been reported on watermelon in a field in Hidalgo County, TX. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Unsettled Southeast and parts of TX / OK; mostly dry otherwiseThe front that swept into the southern U.S. over the weekend now stretches from the western Carolinas through eastern LA. It will push farther into the Southeast but then become stationary. An area of disturbed weather is developing in the south-central / southeast Gulf of Mexico. It is forecast to move east / northeast toward FL. These two features combine to produce wet and unsettled weather in the Southeast early this week. Showers or storms are also possible in western or northern TX and OK as a front approaches that region. Highs in the 80s with some 90s to 100s south-central U.S.. Lows from the 50s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the lower Southeast. With the cold front hanging to the north and west of the known sources ... and the area of disturbed weather in the Gulf likely to have increasing influence as the week progresses ... the lower Southeast (especially the FL peninsula) will experience favorable conditions for the various transport events. These events are moving generally northeast or east each day Monday and Tuesday. Hot and dry in deep south TX.  

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, June 3

HIGH Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula and in southern GA. Low Risk for southeast GA and far southern SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, June 4

HIGH Risk for cucurbits along the FL peninsula. Moderate Risk for southern GA. Low Risk in southeast GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, May 31, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 27 May: First report from TX. CDM has been reported on watermelon in a field in Hidalgo County, TX. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 22 May: First report from GA. New Report from FL. CDM has been reported on cucumber in a field in Worth County, GA. CDM has been confirmed on multiple hosts in the sentinel plot in Hillsborough County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Strong cold front to impact southern U.S this weekend. Expect heavy showers over FL and OK / AR on Friday with a few showers possible central Gulf states. The cold front now stationary over the TX / OK panhandles will swing east tonight and move through the southern U.S. Saturday and Sunday. Numerous showers and storms will occur from TX into the mid-South Saturday, and mainly from the MS River eastward on Sunday. Showers will continue along the FL peninsula Saturday and Sunday. Expect some drying and cooling behind the front for portions of the southern Plains. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s, with some 70s / 50s behind the front.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely parts of the Southeast, possible farther north. Persistently favorable conditions over the FL peninsula favor further epidemic spread in that region. Transport events from the FL and GA source move northwest / north Friday and Saturday, northeast on Sunday. The primary difference is that while the FL events move rather slowly over the weekend, the events out of the GA move at a healthy pace each day. Airborne spores from the southern GA region could be deposited in central or eastern sections of TN and KY (Friday / Saturday) or portions of the Carolinas (Sunday's event). Of greater likelihood is epidemic spread for portions of western GA and eastern AL, where greater deposition is likely, and the risk to cucurbits is Low to Moderate on consecutive days Friday and Saturday. Greater risk is also indicated for GA on Sunday (High and Moderate Risk). Unfavorable weather dominates the southern TX transport events. 

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, May 31

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL. Low Risk for the FL panhandle, western GA, AL, central TN, and central KY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, June 1

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL. Moderate Risk for western GA and eastern AL. Low Risk in northern FL, far southern GA, eastern TN, and eastern KY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, June 2

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in south-central GA. Moderate Risk for the FL peninsula and north-central to northeast GA. Low Risk in western SC and western and central NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, May 29, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 27 May: First report from TX. CDM has been reported on watermelon in a field in Hidalgo County, TX. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 22 May: First report from GA. New Report from FL. CDM has been reported on cucumber in a field in Worth County, GA. CDM has been confirmed on multiple hosts in the sentinel plot in Hillsborough County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Mostly dry; chance of showers in FL, TX, central Gulf. Bermuda High is in control of the weather for the next several days. Increasingly warm and humid air will feed mostly afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms in some areas, while others remain dry. Best chance of rain is in southern FL and parts of north TX / OK / AR over the next 2 days. Highs mostly in the 80s, lows mostly in the 60s. A frontal system will move into the south-central U.S. and head east this weekend. 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely central / southern FL, possible in southern TX / Gulf Coast. Favorable conditions over the FL peninsula today, more mixed for Tuesday's events. Both day's events move west to northwest and onshore the central Gulf Coast region late on the second day of travel. Most spores will either be washed out over FL or killed during transport over the Gulf of Mexico. However, enough survivors may reach land, coincident with a chance of rain, to raise the risk to Low. The GA events curl to the northwest each day. Conditions are unfavorable today, but become slightly favorable for Tuesday's event. Mixed conditions in southern TX for Monday's transport event, unfavorable Tuesday.

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, May 29

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern FL. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in deep south TX and central FL. Low Risk for southeast LA and southern and central MS. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, May 30

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in far southern FL. Moderate Risk for southern and west-central FL. Low Risk in eastern and southeast LA, southern and western MS, and southeast AR. Low Risk also for the GA event ... southwest GA, central and northern AL, into west-central TN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE


Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, May 27, 2013
 

*** Epidemic Update - 27 May: First report from TX. CDM has been reported on watermelon in a field in Hidalgo County, TX. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 22 May: First report from GA. New Report from FL. CDM has been reported on cucumber in a field in Worth County, GA. CDM has been confirmed on multiple hosts in the sentinel plot in Hillsborough County, FL. Please see the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Chance of showers parts of TX and FL peninsula; mostly dry otherwise. High pressure centered off the NC coast is largely in control of the weather. Major frontal systems will not intrude into the southern U.S. However, onshore flow may trigger some showers in FL or along the immediate Gulf Coast. Showers are also possible in TX along the dry line, mainly in the western sections and on Tuesday. Highs in the 80s to low 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Mixed to favorable conditions central and southern FL; potential for spread to southern Appalachians or Gulf Coast?. Trajectories out of southern FL drive to the west on Monday, to the WNW on Tuesday. Mixed conditions on Monday in southern FL become more favorable on Tuesday and expand northward. Tuesday's events may impact the central Gulf Coast. Though unlikely, circumstances warrant risk above the minimal category. For the GA events ... both Monday's and Tuesday's event curls northwest and northeast, through western GA into eastern TN. Monday's event draws interest in that any live spores that arrive in the southern Appalachians Monday night or Tuesday morning may coincide with an isolated or scattered shower. Sky conditions during this afternoon's transport will likely be too sunny to support much spore survival. However, like Tuesday's events out of southern FL, there is only very slight favorability, but enough to push the risk out of the minimal category. In southern TX ... hot and dry conditions near the source and during transport (to the northwest) will prohibit any epidemic spread.

 Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, May 27

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern FL. Low Risk for the southern Appalachian Mountains. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


 Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, May 28

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern FL. Moderate Risk for central FL. Low Risk in southern and central LA and far southeast TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.


Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2013

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