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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, July 5, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 5 July: New reports from NJ, PA, and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Cumberland County, NJ; Columbia County, PA; and Clarendon County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 3 July: First reports from MS and PA. New report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS; Montour County, PA; and Person County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Variable and unsettled weather. A wavy front that extends from the Carolinas to KS will shift position and become more northeast-to-southwest oriented on Thursday. Scattered to numerous showers will fall over much of the central and eastern U.S. and southern Canada in association with this front, and also with a second one dropping into the Great Lakes / Midwest. Sky cover is greatest near the front; sunny to partly cloudy skies will be more common elsewhere. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in KY and the mid-Atlantic states, possible many other areas. Transport events during midweek tend to track near the sources and to the northeast, with a few differences each day depending on position of the front. Conditions are favorable for epidemic spread in the southern Ohio Valley both days, and in the lower mid-Atlantic Wednesday and the upper mid-Atlantic Thursday. Slightly favorable weather will occur over much of the southern U.S. and parts of the North.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, July 5

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central KY, northeast NC, and southeast VA. Moderate Risk in central MS and southwest AL. Low Risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, northern and eastern SC, southeast NC, and eastern KY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, July 6

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in north-central TN, central and eastern KY, southern NJ, DE, MD, northeast VA, and most of central and eastern PA. Moderate Risk in northeast OH, northwest PA, central NY, and central and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in deep south and eastern TX, central and eastern MS, central and western AL, northern FL and the panhandle, central and southern GA, SC, and central and eastern NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, July 3, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 3 July: First reports from MS and PA. New report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS; Montour County, PA; and Person County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 30 June: First reports from NJ, OH, DE, and MI. New reports from NC, MD, and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Salem County, NJ; Wayne County, OH; Sussex County, DE; Monroe County, MI; Beaufort County, NC; Caroline County, MD; and Spartanburg and Chester Counties, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Somewhat unsettled weather. High pressure areas, one over the South and another moving into southern Canada / Great Lakes / Northeast, sandwich a slow-moving front over the Ohio Valley / mid-Atlantic states. Mainly afternoon / evening showers and storms are expected for most areas along and south of the front. Skies will be partly cloudy in most locations. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s, with cooler temperatures far North.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Carolinas, parts of KY / TN. Conditions during the transport events will vary quite a bit with location. Mixed to favorable conditions will occur during most events out of the Southeast and KY. Less favorable conditions are expected toward the south-central U.S. and parts of the North.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, July 3

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northeast SC and southeast NC. Moderate Risk in the FL peninsula, east-central and southeast GA, SC except the northeast, western NC, western KY, north-central TN, eastern OH, and a broad swath of central PA. Low Risk for cucurbits in the eastern FL panhandle, southwest GA, central and northeast NC, southeast MI, far southern ON, far northeast OH, and northern PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, July 4

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northeast SC, east-central and eastern NC, southeast VA, south-central KY, and east-central TN. Moderate Risk in southeast PA, central and southern NJ, DE, eastern MD, the FL peninsula, southeast GA, central SC, west-central and western NC except the southwest, and southwest VA. Low Risk for cucurbits in southwest GA and the eastern panhandle of FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, June 30, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 30 June: First reports from NJ, OH, DE, and MI. New reports from NC, MD, and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Salem County, NJ; Wayne County, OH; Sussex County, DE; Monroe County, MI; Beaufort County, NC; Caroline County, MD; and Spartanburg and Chester Counties, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 28 June: First reports from Ontario and KY. CDM has been confirmed in Essex County, ON; and Allen County, KY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Unsettled summertime weather. A Bermuda High positioned offshore keeps eastern North America covered in warm, humid air. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will be the norm. Isolated to scattered showers are possible nearly everywhere each day through the weekend. Showers / storms will be most numerous ahead of  a cold front moving from the Central into the Eastern areas. Drying will occur across the northern sections on Sunday behind the front. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast / lower mid-Atlantic, lower Lakes, and parts of KY / TN. Epidemic spread possible in additional regions. Transport events over the next 3 days tend to move northeast or east. Conditions for most events will be favorable for epidemic spread, diminishing over the northern areas on Sunday behind the front.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, June 30

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL, southern AL, central and southern GA, SC, most of NC, southeast MI, northern OH, southern ON, northwest PA, and western NY. Moderate Risk in central KY. Low Risk for cucurbits in central NY, central and southeast VA, and northeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, July 1

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern and eastern SC, eastern NC, eastern VA, eastern MD, DE, southeast PA, NJ, Long Island, southwest CT, southern ON, southeast MI, northern OH, most of PA, western NY, southern KY, and northern TN. Moderate Risk in south-central VA, northern SC, southern GA, far southern AL, and FL except southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in southern FL, eastern PA, central and eastern NY, and New England except ME. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, July 2

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL, far southern AL, and far southern GA. Moderate Risk for southern GA, SC, central and eastern NC, and southeast VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, June 28, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 28 June: First reports from Ontario and KY. CDM has been confirmed in Essex County, ON; and Allen County, KY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 26 June: New report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Johnston County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Mostly dry; becoming unsettled North and South. High pressure moving off the mid-Atlantic coast is the dominant weather feature. Most areas will be dry. Moist return flow on the back side of the High will help generate some showers in the South today, increasing in scope on Thursday. Scattered showers are also forecast across the northern areas as a frontal system moves from west to east through midweek. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s, with a warming trend.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the South, and north of Lake Erie. The drier weather of earlier this week will give way to increasingly more favorable conditions for epidemic spread through midweek and the weekend. Transport events from most sources curve southwest to west on Wednesday, and to the north or northeast on Thursday. The most favorable conditions will be found during the events coming out of FL / GA / AL.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, June 28

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL, southern GA, southern AL, and southeast MS. Moderate Risk in deep south and east-central TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, June 29

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL, southern and central GA, far southern SC, eastern AL, western AL, eastern MS, and southern ON. Low Risk for cucurbits in deep south and east-central TX, SC, northern GA, northeast AL, east-central and eastern TN, and south-central KY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, June 26, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 26 June: New report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Johnston County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 23 June: First report from MD. New reports from GA, NC, and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Dorchester County, MD; Ben Hill and Turner Counties, GA; Edgecombe County, NC; and Williamsburg County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern and Eastern U.S.

Drier weather; showers still possible some areas. High pressure and drier air is moving into much of the southern and eastern U.S. as the weekend front exits the south-Atlantic coast. Showers are possible in the Gulf Coast each day. Isolated showers may also fall in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Dry otherwise. Highs in the 80s to low 90s. Lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in FL. Transport events early this week tend to move near the sources and/or to the south to west. Best chances of rain / most favorable conditions are along the FL peninsula near the exiting front, and perhaps portions of TX (on Tuesday). Some epidemic spread is possible near the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, June 26

HIGH Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula and in far southeast GA. Moderate Risk in deep south TX. Low Risk for cucurbits in the eastern FL panhandle, southern GA, and in east-central TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, June 27

HIGH Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula. Moderate Risk for deep south and east-central TX. Low Risk for cucurbits in eastern MD, southern DE, southeast VA, the eastern halves of the Carolinas, southern GA, far southern AL, the FL panhandle, far southern MS and extreme southeast LA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

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