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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, May 19, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 15 May: First report from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Echols County, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 10 May: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Hillsborough County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Transitioning to a prolonged period of unsettled weather. A slow-moving frontal system treks slowly west to east during the next several days. Widespread rain begins today in OK / TX and expands into the central and eastern sections of the South Saturday and Sunday. Highs in the 80s and 90s Friday cooling into the 70s and 80s Saturday and Sunday. Lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible. As the weather increases in favorability each day, so will the chance of epidemic spread. Sunday's transport events, which curve to the north from the Southeast's sources and plod west from southern TX, draw the most attention. Should any rain fall at the sources on Friday and Saturday (which is expected in the Southeast), it will revitalize any field infections that may have become dormant due to recent dry weather. Risk to cucurbits will lag behind the day-to-day environment until this happens. Epidemic spread into the interior Southeast is also possible on Saturday.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, May 19

Low Risk to cucurbits in west-central and southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, May 20

Low Risk to cucurbits in FL except the northeast and east-central areas, and in western and central GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, May 21

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in deep south TX. Low Risk to cucurbits in deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, May 17, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 15 May: First report from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Echols County, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 10 May: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Hillsborough County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Mostly dry Wednesday; becoming more unsettled Thursday. A summer-like situation unfolds through midweek. A Bermuda High centered off the coast extends over the region. Skies will be sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers are possible in some areas. Showers are more likely Thursday than Wednesday and mainly for western and central sections of the South. A front will approach from the north and west on Thursday, but won't enter the region until later this week. Hot with highs well into the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in southern FL. Any active weather / more favorable conditions will not be near any of the midweek transport events. Events tend to move west to northwest in most cases. Partly cloudy skies and a chance of scattered showers supports some risk in southern FL each day.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, May 17

Low Risk to cucurbits in southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, May 18

Low Risk to cucurbits in southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, May 15, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 15 May: First report from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Echols County, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 10 May: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Hillsborough County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

A dry, warm period. High pressure, with a center shifting east and offshore, governs the weather early this week. Sunny to partly cloudy skies are the norm. Other than some scattered showers in southern FL or OK / TX (Tuesday), expect little to no precipitation. Seasonally warm temperatures will occur; highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in southern FL. Most transport events during the next 2 days are benign. Events out of FL and GA move southwest to west, those from TX to the northwest. Conditions are unfavorable for epidemic spread, save for slightly favorable to mixed conditions in southern FL, thus some localized epidemic spread there is possible.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, May 15

Low Risk to cucurbits in southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, May 16

Low Risk to cucurbits in southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, May 12, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 10 May: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Hillsborough County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 28 April: First report from TX. CDM has been confirmed in Hidalgo County, TX. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Active weather, diminishing with time. Enhanced cloudiness and rain / showers will progress west to east Friday and Saturday as a complex frontal system makes its way across the southern United States. By Sunday, active weather should be confined to parts of the FL peninsula as high pressure and fair weather fill in behind the departing system. Highs mostly 70s and 80s, lows mostly 50s and 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in FL. Transport events out of the FL sources track east to northeast each day. Friday's conditions are unfavorable. Saturday's and Sunday's conditions show increased favorability for epidemic spread, though they are tempered by the antecedent dry weather. The events originating in deep south TX are unremarkable.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, May 12

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, May 13

Low Risk to cucurbits in central FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, May 14

Low Risk to cucurbits in southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, May 10, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 10 May: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Hillsborough County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 28 April: First report from TX. CDM has been confirmed in Hidalgo County, TX. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Becoming unsettled south-central U.S.; mostly dry Southeast. The fronts bracketing the Southland will either hover in place (northern edge) or move slowly east (western side). Scattered showers in TX / OK will spread into AR/LA/MS on Thursday. The Southeast will be dry, save for a few showers in NC. Highs in the 80s to low 90s, lows in the 60s to low 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. The FL-source transport events move generally near the sources in weak winds. The TX events track northwest to north. In each case, conditions are unfavorable for survivable transport and effective deposition of airborne spores.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, May 10

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, May 11

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

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