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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 9, 2016
 

*** Epidemic Update - 9 September: New report from IN. CDM has been confirmed in Knox County, IN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 7 September: New report from SC. CDM has been confirmed in Beaufort County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Cold front moves through eastern North America. A now-developing front in the northern Plains / southern Canada will become a full-latittude cold front as it swings through central and eastern U.S. / southern Canada. Low pressure in the Great Lakes anchors the front that extends into TX on Saturday; by Sunday the front will be moving off the northern Atlantic Coast and slowing across the South. Active weather will occur Friday and Saturday along and ahead of the front while the Southeast is dry. Scattered showers are expected in the East and South on Sunday as the front weakens. Warm to hot with the highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s ahead of the front; highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s behind it.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the northern areas, mostly Saturday. Transport events, most of those Friday and Saturday, are tracking to the east or northeast ahead of the late-summer cold front. Most of Sunday's events move near-source or east. The more favorable conditions during the next 3 days of transport events will occur on Saturday across the northern reaches from the Great Lakes into the Northeast.    

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 9

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central PA. Moderate Risk in NJ, eastern and southwest PA, southern OH, western WV, central and eastern KY, and southeast TX. Low Risk for cucurbits in southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 10

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern MI, northern IN, northern and eastern OH, southern ON, western and northern PA, NY but the southeast, southern Quebec, VT, NH, western and central MA. Moderate Risk for central and eastern KY, southern OH, DE, eastern MD, southern and eastern PA, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, CT, RI, southeast MA, and southeast TX. Low risk for cucurbits in central MS, northern AL, and central and eastern TN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, September 11

Moderate Risk for northwest VT, far northeast NY, southern Que, east-central NY, MA, CT, RI, eastern Long Island, southwest MS, and near the southeast TX source. Low risk for cucurbits near the sources in southeast VA, the Carolinas, southern GA, FL, and central and southern AL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2016

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, September 7, 2016
 

*** Epidemic Update - 7 September: New report from SC. CDM has been confirmed in Beaufort County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 5 September: New report from OH. CDM has been confirmed in Pike County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Unsettled North; mostly dry South. Showers are probable along a front moving into the Midwest / Great Lakes, and near the remnant Low from Hermine (now just south of New England). High pressure over the rest of the U.S. will keep the South mostly dry. Hot with highs mostly 80s and 90s, lows mostly 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the southern Lakes. The transport events of due interest, those coming out of the northern sources, move generally east or southeast Wednesday and east to northeast on Thursday. In addition to the southern Great Lakes region, conditions will be favorable in Long Island and coastal NJ. Low to Moderate Risk will be found in other areas of the Great Lakes that aren't at High Risk, each day.   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, September 7

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern IN, MI, eastern NJ, and Long Island. Moderate Risk in northern OH, southern ON, western NY, and central and northwest PA. Low Risk for cucurbits in eastern OH, southwest PA, southeast VA, northeast NC, southern FL, and near the southeast TX source. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, September 8

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern IN, northern OH, southern MI, southern ON, northwest PA, and western NY. Moderate Risk for central PA, central and eastern NY, VT, NH, southern Quebec, MA, CT, and RI. Low risk for cucurbits in central MI, central and eastern KY, southern OH, WV, southwest PA, eastern PA, NJ, Long Island, DE, eastern MD, southern FL, and southeast TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2016

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, September 5, 2016
 

*** Epidemic Update - 5 September: New report from OH. CDM has been confirmed in Pike County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 2 September: New report from AL. CDM has been confirmed in Lee County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Mostly dry; showers Gulf Coast and upper Midwest. High pressure over the eastern U.S. / southern Canada will govern the weather, with dry conditions and sunny to partly cloudy skies. Showers are possible near the Gulf Coast and along a front in the upper Midwest. Hermine, now a post-tropical cyclone, lingers east of NJ. Some showers will occur in southern New England and perhaps the upper mid-Atlantic coast. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s..

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in Long Island and in parts of the South. Most transport events are benign early this week. However, enhanced cloudiness and a greater chance of showers will produce High Risk during the transport events out of MS and east TX today. Those move northwest. On Tuesday, Hermine will drift close enough the New England coast to produce favorable conditions there. Threat to other areas will be limited as those events move south. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions are forecast for a few other transport events in the South each day.   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, September 5

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southeast TX, and west-central MS. Low Risk for cucurbits in eastern AR, southeast MS, southwest AL, the FL panhandle, northern FL, and southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, September 6

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in Long Island. Moderate Risk for western MS, eastern AR, and southeast TX. Low risk for cucurbits in western MA, CT, and southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2016

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 2, 2016
 

*** Epidemic Update - 2 September: New report from AL. CDM has been confirmed in Lee County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 31 August: New report from NY. CDM has been confirmed in Albany County, NY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Hurricane Hermine impacts the East Coast; showers Gulf Coast; dry elsewhere. Tropical depression 9 became Tropical Storm and then Hurricane Hermine, moving onshore FL Thursday night. Now a TS in southern GA, heavy rain and wind will move through the Southeast and lower mid-Atlantic today and tonight as Hermine tracks northeast. Hermine will slow to a crawl after moving off the NC coast. Rainy weather is expected for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts Saturday and Sunday. Elsewhere, high pressure rules the weather for most areas. Showers are possible on the Gulf Coast along an old front each day. Highs from the 60s Northeast to 90s South. Lows mostly 40s to 60s with some 70s far South.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely along the East Coast. Conditions will be favorable for epidemic spread in the Southeast and later near the mid-Atlantic / Northeast coasts. Some epidemic spread is possible in lower areas of the South. Transport events in the main areas of interest in the East will be governed by the counter-clockwise circulation around Hermine.   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 2

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, central and southern GA, central and eastern SC and NC, and southeast VA. Moderate Risk in eastern and southern AL, the FL panhandle, and southeast TX. Low Risk for cucurbits in southern FL, northern GA, western SC, and western NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 3

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, eastern NC, southeast VA, southeast MD, and southern DE. Moderate Risk for southern NJ, northern DE, central and northeast MD, south-central VA, east-central NC, southern GA, southern AL, and the FL panhandle. Low risk for cucurbits in southern FL, southeast TX, and northeast SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, September 4

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, central and eastern MD, DE, southeast PA, NJ, and Long Island. Moderate Risk for southern GA and AL, and the FL panhandle. Low risk for cucurbits in southern FL, south-central GA, southwest and southern MS, southeast and deep south TX, and southeast VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2016

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, August 31, 2016
 

*** Epidemic Update - 31 August: New report from NY. CDM has been confirmed in Albany County, NY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 29 August: New reports from MS, AL, and NY. CDM has been confirmed in Hinds County, MS; Macon County, AL; and Clinton County, NY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Unsettled in the Southeast and along a cold front. High pressure and cooler air are moving into southern Canada and the northern and central U.S., behind a cold front pushing south and east through Friday morning. Clouds and showers are expected with the front. The other main weather feature is Tropical Depression 9. TD 9, now in the south-central Gulf, will become a Tropical Storm as it bends to the northeast, moving into northern FL / southern GA on Thursday. Expect rainy weather for the Southeast and south-Atlantic coast. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s, cooling across the north on Thursday.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the lower Lakes, Northeast, and Southeast. Transport events are tracking near-source / east / northeast ahead of the cold front, near-source / south / southeast behind the front (northern sources on Thursday). In addition to the favorable conditions in the regions above, slightly favorable to mixed conditions are expected during many other transoprt events.    

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, August 31

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in eastern OH, PA except the southeast, NY, southern Quebec, VT, NH, most of MA, central and eastern SC, southern GA, and northern FL. Moderate Risk in deep south TX, western NC, central and eastern KYf, western and central OH, southern ON, southeast PA, central and northern NJ, Long Island, CT, RI, and southeast MA. Low Risk for cucurbits in far southern MI, northeast IN, southern NJ, southern ME, DE, eastern MD, southeast NC, southern FL, far southwest VA, central and eastern TN, western GA, northern and eastern AL, the eastern FL panhandle, and southeast TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, September 1

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, the eastern panhandle, and central and southern GA. Moderate Risk for the western panhandle, eastern AL, northern GA, northeast TN, SC, NC, VA, central and eastern MD, DE, southeast PA, NJ, Long Island, southern CT, RI, and eastern MA. Low risk for cucurbits in central and southern MI, southern ON, central and northern PA, NY, VT, NJ, central and western MA, northern CT, southern KY, central and eastern TN, western AL, southern FL, and southeast and deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2016

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