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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, July 28, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 28 July: New reports from AL, PA, and OH. CDM has been confirmed in Elmore County, AL; Union, Lawrence, and Huntingdon Counties, PA; Holmes and Delaware Counties, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 26 July: First report from KY; new reports from OH and NC. CDM has been confirmed in Fayette County, KY; Belmont County, OH; and Henderson County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Active weather transitions to more peaceful weather. A strong-for-summer frontal system stretches from the New England coast southwestward through the mid-Atlantic and into the mid-South. Copious rains are expected along and ahead of this system as it makes slowish progress to the east and south. High pressure from Canada provides drier, cooler air for some areas on Saturday and most areas by Sunday. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows 50s to 70s, coolest Northeast.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in many areas Friday and Saturday. Transport events will be driven by the position of the strong front. Events move near-source and ENE along and south of the front (most areas Friday and southern areas Saturday); events track near-source and/or south to southwest north of the front (northern sections Saturday and most areas Sunday). Conditions are favorable in the majority of regions Friday, along the eastern and southern states Saturday, with much less favorable conditions on Sunday. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, July 28

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern AL, western SC and NC, eastern KY, southern and eastern OH, western and northern WV, PA, NJ, DE, and MD. Moderate Risk in southeast VA, central and eastern NC, northern SC, southern MS, south-central AL, western GA, and the FL peninsula. Low Risk for cucurbits in far southern AL, the FL panhandle, southern and eastern GA, southern and west-central SC, western and northern VA, central and northern OH, southeast MI, far southern ON, southeast NY, Long Island, and western CT. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, July 29

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southeast LA, southern AL, central and southern GA, northern FL and the FL panhandle, southern and eastern SC, eastern NC, northern and eastern VA, northern WV, MD, DE, NJ, south-central and southeast PA. Moderate Risk in central VA, east-central NC, central SC, and central and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in southeast OH, northern WV, western and northern PA, and southeast NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, July 30

HIGH Risk for cucurbits along the FL peninsula. Low Risk for cucurbits in far eastern NC, far southeast VA, eastern MD, DE, and southern NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, July 26, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 26 July: First report from KY; new reports from OH and NC. CDM has been confirmed in Fayette County, KY; Belmont County, OH; and Henderson County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 24 July: New reports from NY, PA, MI, and NC. CDM has been confirmed in Genessee and Yates Counties, NY; Cumberland, Franklin, Clinton, and Centre Counties, PA; Wayne and Muskegon Counties, MI; and Lincoln County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Variable weather. Rain and/or showers during midweek are focused near a dissipating front in the Southeast and along / ahead of a cold front that moves into the upper Midwest today and into the Northeast / Ohio Valley on Thursday. Mostly dry elsewhere and elsewhen. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in parts of the Southeast and North. Everything from dry weather to numerous showers is possible in the southern areas; the risks reflect this. Dry / unfavorable weather dominates the northern areas for Wednesday's transport events. As the front draws nearer, it will impact many more transport events on Thursday. Events overall show a tendency to track near the sources and to the east / northeast during midweek. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, July 26

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southeast GA, southern SC, and north-central MI. Moderate Risk in southern FL, the eastern panhandle, southeast AL, southwest and central GA, northern SC, and western NC. Low Risk for cucurbits in central and northern FL, the western panhandle of FL, western AL, far northeast SC and far southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, July 27

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, southern GA, western NC, northeast KY, far northeast IN, southern MI, southern ON, northern and eastern OH, central and southern NY, north-central and northeast PA, northern NJ, Long Island, southern New England, and far southern VT and NH. Moderate Risk in central MI, south-central and southeast PA, southern NJ, central and southern FL, the FL panhandle, southeast AL, central GA, southern and western SC, and west-central NC. Low Risk for cucurbits in central and western AL, eastern SC, and northern IN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, July 24, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 24 July: New reports from NY, PA, MI, and NC. CDM has been confirmed in Genessee and Yates Counties, NY; Cumberland, Franklin, Clinton, and Centre Counties, PA; Wayne and Muskegon Counties, MI; and Lincoln County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 21 July: New reports from OH and MD. CDM has been confirmed in Henry County, OH; and Wicomico County, MD. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Unsettled, but improving, North; Hot with summertime showers South. High pressure moving into southern Canada / upper Midwest / Great Lakes will push the northern front to the south early this week. Unsettled weather in the lower Lakes and Northeast will move out on Tuesday. Daily rounds of scattered to numerous showers will fire across the central and southern sections. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in parts of the Northeast and South. Transport events encounter a variety of conditions. Toward the northern areas, more favorable weather will give way to only slightly favorable conditions on Tuesday. In the southern U.S., risks are quite elevated in portions of the deep South states and near the south-Atlantic coast, with slightly favorable to mixed conditions farther inland. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, July 24

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern MS, AL, central and southern GA, the FL panhandle, northern FL, central and eastern SC, southeast NC, northern and central PA, central and southern NY, northern NJ, Long Island, and southern New England. Moderate Risk southern PA, southern NJ, northern MD, northern DE, and central and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in eastern TX, western SC, NC except the southeast, southeast VA, eastern MD, southern DE, far southeast MI, and northern OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, July 25

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern MS, central and southern AL, southern GA, the FL panhandle, eastern SC, and far southeast NC. Moderate Risk in the northern 1/2 of GA, central and western SC, most of NC, and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in central and northern FL, NJ, eastern and northern PA, western and southern NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, July 21, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 21 July: New reports from OH and MD. CDM has been confirmed in Henry County, OH; and Wicomico County, MD. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 19 July: New reports from NJ, PA, and NY. CDM has been confirmed in Hunterdon County, NJ; Lancaster County, PA; and Dutchess County, NY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Unsettled North; showers possible South. The frontal system strung out over the northern areas remains there through the weekend. Clouds and showers will be prevalent in the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. To the south, expect mid-summer weather with mostly dry conditions interspersed with areas that may see scattered showers. The better chances of rain will be nearer the Gulf Coast. Hot with highs in the 80s Great Lakes to 90s elsewhere. Lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Great Lakes / Northeast and part of FL. Each day, nearly all transport events move near-source and/or east to northeast. Initially less-favorable conditions across the northern U.S. / southern Canada become much more favorable Saturday and Sunday. Daily conditions for the transport events south of the wavy front will be changeable. Generally, the better chances for epidemic spread will be more toward the deep South states. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, July 21

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL. Moderate Risk on the FL peninsula, and in southwest GA, southern AL, and southwest MS. Low Risk for cucurbits in west-central AL and western NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, July 22

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and eastern MI, southern ON, northern OH, western NY, and western and central PA. Moderate Risk in central and southeast NY, eastern PA, NJ, western CT, Long Island, the NC mountains, FL, southwest GA, central and southern AL, MS, southeast AR, and the eastern 1/2 of LA. Low Risk for cucurbits in eastern MD, DE, eastern CT, MA, and RI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, July 23

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in western and southern NY, central and eastern PA, NJ, and northern DE. Moderate Risk in southern ON, eastern MI, northern OH, western PA, the NC mountains, southern MS, central and southern AL, southern GA, and FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in east-central TX, central GA, SC, NC except the mountains, southeast VA, and southern DE. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, July 19, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 19 July: New reports from NJ, PA, and NY. CDM has been confirmed in Hunterdon County, NJ; Lancaster County, PA; and Dutchess County, NY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 17 July: New reports from SC, PA, MI, NY, and OH. CDM has been confirmed in Chesterfield County, SC; Juaniata County, PA; Bay County, MI; Niagara County, NY; and Wood County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Mostly dry; showers Gulf Coast and northern tier. The primary weather features are high pressure sprawled over eastern North America and a cold front that moves in the northern areas and then stalls. Sunny to partly cloudy and dry most locations. Showers will mainly occur near the front and along the Gulf Coast. Isolated to perhaps widely scattered showers are also possible for various areas in between. Hot with highs well into the upper 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely only in central and southern FL. The general tenor of the midweek situation is one of lesser chances of epidemic spread when compared to most forecasts of the past few weeks. Transport events are moving near the sources or to the east. The highest risks will be confined to the FL peninsula, with the Moderate to Low risks in some other regions, varying with the day-to-day weather. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, July 19

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL. Moderate Risk in northern FL, the FL panhandle, southern GA, southern AL, southeast MS, and the NC mountains. Low Risk for cucurbits in deep south TX, southwest MS, part of eastern AL, central GA, SC, NC outside the mountains, southeast MI, northwest OH, southern ON, NY, central and eastern PA, northern DE, NJ, Long Island, CT, RI, and eastern MA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, July 20

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL. Moderate Risk in northern FL, the FL panhandle, southern AL and GA, eastern MI, southern ON, northern OH, and far northwest PA. Low Risk for cucurbits in northwest PA, western NY, southwest MS, southeast GA, eastern SC, and eastern NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

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