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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, June 12, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 7 June: First reports from NC and SC. New reports from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Duplin County, NC; Horry County, SC; and Tift and Tattnall Counties, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 15 May: First report from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Echols County, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Showers possible most areas. A typical summer situation is in place ... with high pressure over the region, sunny to partly cloudy skies, and PM showers or storms for some sections. The best chances of rain and greatest amounts occur near the Gulf Coast / FL. TX / OK, the Carolinas, and some interior sections will remain largely dry. Hot with highs in the 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast. Conditions surrounding the transport events out of FL and GA are favorable for epidemic spread. Events move west, slower on Tuesday than Monday. Unfavorable conditions occur for the events out of TX and the Carolinas.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, June 12

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern GA; southern, western, and northen FL; and the eastern FL panhandle. Moderate Risk for eastern FL, the western panhandle, and southeast AL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, June 13

HIGH Risk for the southern 1/2 of GA and FL except the western panhandle. Low Risk for cucurbits in the western panhandle and southeast AL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, June 9, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 7 June: First reports from NC and SC. New reports from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Duplin County, NC; Horry County, SC; and Tift and Tattnall Counties, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 15 May: First report from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Echols County, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Mostly dry; showers possible some areas. High pressure sprawled over the southern U.S. governs the scene. Sunny to partly cloudy skies and dry weather will be dominant. This past week's cold front, now stationary over FL, will trigger showers in that area. The front drifts north  on Sunday, bringing a chance of showers to the Gulf Coast and the mainland Southeast. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s, with a warming trend through the period.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in FL; possible in the Southeast. Transport events from the FL and GA sources move near the sources and/or slowly west each day. The stalled front in FL provides conditions favorable for epidemic spread along the peninsula. The increased cloudiness and chance of rain in the mainland Southeast on Sunday creates the possibility of epidemic spread there, after 2 days of unfavorable weather. Unfavorable conditions will occur for the SC, NC, and TX transport events.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, June 9

HIGH Risk for southern FL. Moderate Risk for a broad swath of central FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, June 10

HIGH Risk for central and southern FL. Moderate Risk for northern FL and the eastern panhandle. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, June 11

HIGH Risk for central and southern FL. Moderate Risk for northern FL, the FL panhandle, central and southern GA, and southern AL. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern GA and central AL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, June 7, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 7 June: First reports from NC and SC. New reports from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Duplin County, NC; Horry County, SC; and Tift and Tattnall Counties, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 15 May: First report from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Echols County, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Unsettled, but improving, East; mostly dry West. A front lies just off the south Atlantic coast southwestward into the northern Gulf. High pressure sits to the north. Expect clouds and rain from the eastern Carolinas through the lower Southeast today. Rain coverage will lessen on Thursday as the front moves south and east. Dry weather will occur elsewhere, save for a few showers possible in parts of TX/OK. Highs mostly 70s and 80s, lows mostly 50s and 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast. With a front bisecting the Southeast for much of the period, transport events from the FL sources move northeast, while those from the GA and Carolinas' sources move southwest (Wednesday) or south to southwest (Thursday). Conditions are favorable for survivable transport and deposition in the region, moreso for Wednesday's events than Thursday's. The TX transport events are benign.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, June 7

HIGH Risk for FL, southeast AL, central and southern GA, central and eastern SC, and southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, June 8

HIGH Risk for central and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, southeast GA, coastal SC, and southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, June 5, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 15 May: First report from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Echols County, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 10 May: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Hillsborough County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Active weather. An assortment of surface features will combine to produce copious clouds and widespread rain over the South early this week. The last of these, a cold front moving down from the central U.S., settles near the Gulf Coast Tuesday night. Highs mostly in the 80s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the lower Southeast. Favorable conditions for epidemic spread are persisting through the early-week period. Transport events out of the Southeast move northeast Monday, north or northeast Tuesday. Some localized disease development is possible in southern TX.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, June 5

HIGH Risk for the FL peninsula, southern GA, and southern SC. Low Risk for cucurbits in northeast SC and deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, June 6

HIGH Risk for the FL peninsula, the eastern panhandle, southeast AL, and southern GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, June 2, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 15 May: First report from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Echols County, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 10 May: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Hillsborough County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Unsettled summer weather. Most areas will experience partly to mostly cloudy skies and scattered to numerous showers or storms. A dissipating front lies over the upper Southeast. North of the front, toward TN and the Carolinas, dry weather is expected. Highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely near the FL and GA sources. Recent, current, and forecast weather in the lower Southeast is favorable for epidemic spread. Winds are light each day, so transport to other regions is not expected. Transport events move slowly near the sources with some small day-to-day variation. Conditions for the southern TX events are unfavorable until Sunday, when a slight increase will occur.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, June 2

HIGH Risk for the FL peninsula and southern GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, June 3

HIGH Risk for the FL peninsula, the eastern panhandle, and southern GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, June 4

HIGH Risk for the FL peninsula, the eastern panhandle, and southern GA. Low Risk to cucurbits in deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

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