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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, May 5, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 28 April: First report from TX. CDM has been confirmed in Hidalgo County, TX. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 27 March: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Manatee County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Unsettled but improving weather eastern sections; calm western sections. Strong weather system affects areas east of the MS River on Friday. Clouds are prevalent and light rain or showers are possible in most locations. The weather improves markedly Saturday and especially Sunday as the system moves off to the northeast. Mostly sunny and dry weather is expected in the south-central U.S. for several days. Highs from the 60s to 80s, lows from the 40s to 60s, warmest temperatures will be found in the south-central U.S..

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in FL on Friday. Clouds and showers are occurring on Friday ahead of the cold front passing through the FL peninsula. Transport events are moving rapidly east. The more favorable conditions lie toward the southern end. Elsewhere today, and for all events Saturday and Sunday, unfavorable conditions are anticipated.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, May 5

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern FL. Low Risk for central FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, May 6

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, May 7

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, May 3, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 28 April: First report from TX. CDM has been confirmed in Hidalgo County, TX. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 27 March: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Manatee County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Variable, unsettled weather. Widespread clouds and rain accompany a strong spring systerm that impacts western and central sections of the South today (eastern sunny and dry), central and eastern areas on Thursday. Highs from the 60s to 80s, lows from the 40s to 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in the Southeast. Thursday's transport events out of FL are much like those of Tuesday, as events are moving fairly rapidly to the northeast. Slightly favorable conditions are expected. Risks are not pronounced, but epidemic spread may occur as far north as eastern NC. Unfavorable conditions are occurring today for the FL events. In TX, rain my fall near the source tonight, but the unfavorable sky condidtions expected today and then again on Thursday after the rain passes, should render the chance of epidemic spread minimal.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, May 3

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, May 4

Low Risk for cucurbits along the FL peninsula, in southeast GA, and in the coastal plains of the CarolinasMinimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, May 1, 2017
 

*** Forecast Note - 30 April / 1 May: The forecast for Sunday, April 30 has been updated to reflect increased risk to cucurbits in the Southeast. This forecast is presented again below. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 28 April: First report from TX. CDM has been confirmed in Hidalgo County, TX. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 27 March: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Manatee County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Active weather Southeast; tranquil weather elsewhere. Expect showers and rain in the Southeast today as a cold front sweeps through. Drier there Tuesday with some showers in FL. It will be mostly sunny and dry in the south-central U.S., save for some showers in OK and near the western Gulf Coast Tuesday night, before the next big system impacts the region on Wednesday. Highs in the 70s and 80s, lows mostly 50s and 60s with some 70s far south.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in parts of the Southeast. The Southeast has the transport events of note early this week. Southerly / southwesterly winds are taking airborne spores on a curve to the northeast on Monday at a healthy clip. Conditions are slightly favorable to mixed. Given the fairly persistent dry weather in FL, risk to cucurbits will be Low, though effective deposition may take place as far north as southeast NC. Tuesday's events move near-source and south, and with rain expected today and tonight, risks are upped to Moderate for portions of FL on Tuesday. Sunday's updated forecast is given again. Epidemic spread into the mainland Southeast is possible.

Risk prediction map for Yesterday: Sunday, April 30

Low Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, the eastern panhandle, GA except the southeast, western SC, and southwest NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, May 1

Low Risk for cucurbits along the FL peninsula, in coastal sections of GA and SC, and far southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, May 2

Moderate Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, April 28, 2017
 

*** Forecast Note - 30 April: The forecast for Sunday, April 30 has been updated to reflect increased risk to cucurbits in the Southeast. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 28 April: First report from TX. CDM has been confirmed in Hidalgo County, TX. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 27 March: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Manatee County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Increasingly unsettled south-central U.S. / mid-South; hot and dry Southeast. High pressure centered in the southwest Atlantic is pumping very warm and moist air in the entire South. A frontal system stretches from the mid-Atlantic westward in the central / southern Plains. A vigorous low  pressure / frontal system develops along this front in the central U.S. on Saturday and pushes east, dragging a cold front across the South. Showers and rain move into the south-central U.S. Saturday and the mid-South late Saturday and Sunday. Hot and dry for the Southeast through the weekend, with any showers due to the approaching front holding off until Sunday night. Drying and cooler south-central U.S. on Sunday. Hot with highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s. Unsettled weather is forecast for much of next week.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Peculiar situation. Transport events from TX move north Friday and Saturday, toward the developing system. Transport events from FL track northwest Friday and Saturday, north to NNE Sunday. These repeated events involving similar pathways are noteworthy. In most cases, even slightly favorable conditions during these events would produce heightened risk. However ... at this time ... it appears that conditions will be unfavorable enough during each of these events to preclude any risk to cucurbits beyond Minimal. Recent weather near the sources has been dry; no rain is expected near the source regions; and, sky conditions through the late morning and afternoon portions of these events will be sunny (unfavorable). Sunday's transport event out of northern FL will be watched closely. It is during this event that rain is possible, in the Sunday night portion (Friday's and Saturday's events are dry throughout). Any increase in sky cover while spores are airborne may warrant an increase in the risk to cucurbits over the mainland.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, April 28

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, April 29

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, April 30

Low Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, the eastern panhandle, GA except the southeast, western SC, and southwest NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Epidemic History for 2017

June 21
First report from AL. CDM has been confirmed on both varieties of squash and watermelon in the sentinel plot in Baldwin County, AL. Incidence is 100%, severity is 25%. Estimated date of first symptoms is May 12.

June 19
New reports from NC. CDM has been confirmed on cucumber in a 1 acre research plot in Sampson County, NC. Incidence is 10%, severity is 10%. Estimated date of first symptoms is June 15. CDM has been confirmed on cucumber in a 10 acre field in Franklin County, NC. Incidence is 1%, severity is 50%. Estimated date of first symptoms is June 15.

June 16
New reports from GA. CDM has been confirmed on watermelon in a 300 acre field in Lee County, GA. Incidence is 10%, severity is 30%. Estimated date of first symptoms is June 13. CDM has been confirmed on watermelon in a 30 acre field in Decatur County, GA. Incidence is 15%, severity is 20%. Estimated date of first symptoms is June 13.

June 14
New reports from SC, NC, and TX. CDM has been confirmed on cucumber in the sentinel plot and a nearby research plot in Charleston County, SC. Incidence is 10%, severity is 10%, in the sentinel plot. Estimated date of first symptoms is June 9 for the research plot, June 13 in the sentinel plot. CDM has been confirmed on cucumber in a 4 acre field in Wilson County, NC. Incidence is 1%, severity is 2%. Estimated date of first symptoms is June 10. CDM has been confirmed on cantaloupe and cucumber in the sentinel plot in Lenoir County, NC. Incidence is 15%, severity is 3%. Estimated date of first symptoms is June 11. CDM has been confirmed on watermelon in a 300 acre field in Brazos County, TX. Incidence is .01%, severity is 5%. Estimated date of first symptoms is June 13.

June 7
First report from NC and SC. New reports from GA. CDM has been confirmed on cucumber in a 12 acre field in Duplin County, NC. Incidence is 5%, severity is 40%. Estimated date of first symptoms is June 5. CDM has been confirmed on cucumber in a 10 acre field in Horry County, SC. Incidence is 100%, severity is 50%. Estimated date of first symptoms is May 30. CDM has been confirmed on cucumber in a 5 acre research in Tift County, GA. Incidence is 35%, severity is 50%. Estimated date of first symptoms is June 4. CDM has been confirmed on watermelon in a 50 acre field in Tattnall County, GA. Incidence is 5%, severity is 30%. Estimated date of first symptoms is June 4.

May 15
First report from GA. CDM has been confirmed on cucumber in a 10 acre field in Echols County, GA. Incidence is 20%, severity is 30%. Estimated date of first symptoms is May 12.

May 10
New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed on cantaloupe, cucumber and watermelon in the sentinel plot in Hillsborough County, FL. Incidence is 90%, severity is 25%. Estimated date of first symptoms is May 5.

April 26
First report from TX. CDM has been confirmed on watermelon in a 60 acre field in Hidalgo County, TX. Incidence is <15%, severity is 20%. Estimated date of first symptoms is March 29.

March 25
New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed on cucumber and watermelon in a 20 acre commercial field in Manatee County, FL. Incidence and severity are 100% / 15% on the cucumber, 25% / 5% on the watermelon. Estimated date of first symptoms is March 17.

March 7
New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed on cucumber, acorn and butternut cialisfrance24.com squash, cantaloupe, giant pumpkin, and watermelon in the sentinel plot in Miami-Dade County, FL. Incidence and severity vary; incidence is highest in cucumber, Big Max pumpkin, and butternut squash. Severities are low. Estimated date of first symptoms is March 3.

February 17
First report from the U.S. (FL). CDM has been confirmed on cucumber in a greenhouse in Citrus County, FL. Incidence is 100%, severity is 40%. Estimated date of first symptoms is January 10.

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