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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, September 18, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 15, 18 September: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 13 September: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Increasingly wet north-Atlantic coast; mostly dry remainder of East; showers Midwest / MS Valley. Outer rainbands of Jose, moving north offshore, will cause showers along the northern coast today and rain in the Northeast on Tuesday. A wavy front will bring showers to other portions of the North each day. Mostly dry weather elsewhere, though showers are possible in parts of the South, mainly toward the MS Valley region. Highs in the 70s to 90s, lows mostly 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in parts of the North. The more favorable conditions will be found along the northern sections of the Atlantic coast and around the front in the North. Transport events exhibit a variety of directions each day. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, September 18

Moderate Risk in southwest MS / northeast LA, western KY, southern and eastern IN, western OH, far southeast MI, and far southern ON. Low Risk for cucurbits in western NY, western PA, far eastern OH, southern VT and NH, southern New England, Long Island, southeast NY, NJ, eastern PA, DE, eastern MD, eastern VA, northeast NC, southwest VA / northwest  NC, AL, far western FL panhandle, eastern MS, and near the TX sources. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, September 19

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern KY, western OH, eastern MD, DE, far eastern PA, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, southern New England, and far southern VT and NH. Moderate Risk for far southeast WI, far northern IL, southwest MI, northern IN, central OH, northeast KY, eastern PA, central MD, southwest IN, western KY, southwest MS, northern and western AL, southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in deep south and eastern TX, eastern AL, eastern OH, northwest PA, and far western NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 15, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 15 September: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 13 September: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

A largely dry period. High pressure is firmly entrenched over eastern North America and will remain there through the weekend. Sunny to partly cloudy skies and dry weather are dominant. There will be some showers near the Gulf Coast, mainliy Friday and Saturday. Light rain may occur in portions of the mid-Atlantic / Northeast on one day or another (exiting remnants of HR Irma, some onshore flow, and Hurricane Jose getting closer, northeast of the Bahamas on Sunday). A cold front trying to move into the central U.S. on Saturday and Sunday will trigger some showers, also. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s, with a warming trend.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely near the Gulf Coast. Transport events tend to track near the source regions. The more favorable conditions will be found in the central Gulf Coast / lower Southeast regions. A few other areas, varying each day, will feature enough in the way of clouds and potential rainfall to produce Low to Moderate Risk.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 15

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and northern FL and the panhandle, southern AL, and southern GA. Moderate Risk in southern FL, east-central MD, eastern PA, central and northern NJ, southeast NY, southern New England, southern VT and NH. Low Risk for cucurbits in southwest NC, eastern NC, eastern VA, west-central and eastern MD, DE, southern NJ, and central PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 16

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, southern AL, and southwest GA. Moderate Risk for MS, central and northern AL, west-central and southeast GA, the FL peninsula, eastern PA, northern DE, NJ, and southeast NY. Low Risk for cucurbits in southwest VA / northwest NC, northeast NC, eastern VA, central MD, south-central PA, central MA, and northeast CT. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, September 17

Moderate Risk in southern FL and south-central PA. Low Risk for cucurbits in eastern PA, NJ, northern DE, northern MD, southwest VA, northwest NC, eastern NC, MS, AL, southwest GA, the FL panhandle, northern IN, western MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, September 13, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 13 September: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 11 SeptemberNew report from NYCDM has been confirmed in Clinton County, NY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Varied weather with showers. The remnant Low from Hurricane Irma will pass from the Ohio Valley through the middle Atlantic states. These regions will see the most cloudiness and the better chance of rain. Otherwise, diffuse high pressure lies over the rest of eastern North America. Expect fewer clouds and mostly isolated showers, if any. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the TN / OH Valleys and the upper mid-Atlantic. The focus during midweek is on the favorable weather associated with what is left of HR Irma. Most transport events are tracking near-source or east to northeast. The High Risk areas will be surrounded by lower risks as conditions farther away from the really unsettled weather become less favorable during those events.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, September 13

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern AL, central and eastern TN, KY, far western WV, southeast IL, central and southern IN, southern and western OH, eastern MD, DE, southeast PA, and southern NJ. Moderate Risk in southern FL, southeast GA, western NC, southwest VA, WV, northern and eastern OH, southeast MI, southern ON, western MD, PA except the southeast, western and central NY, and northern NJ. Low Risk for cucurbits in southeast NY, western CT, western Long Island, eastern IL, northern IN, west-central VA, central NC, and western and central SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, September 14

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in eastern KY, southeast OH, northwest WV, PA, NY except the north, NJ, DE, and MD. Moderate Risk in the FL peninsula, central OH, western NC, southwest VA, Long Island, southern New England, and southern VT and NH. Low Risk for cucurbits in northwest OH, northern SC, central and eastern NC, and VA except the southwest. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, September 11, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 11 SeptemberNew report from NYCDM has been confirmed in Clinton County, NY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 8 SeptemberNew report from OHCDM has been confirmed in Warren County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Very unsettled weather southern areas, moving north on Tuesday. Hurricane Irma made landfall in southwest FL yesterday and moved up the west coast. Widespread clouds and heavy rain accompany her today as she enters the heart of the Southeast on the way into the TN Valley. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes shifts east with time, allowing the wet weather to move north. Highs in the 60s to 80s, lows mostly 50s and 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely southern and central sections, unlikely across the northern tier. Transport events are largely governed by the counter-clockwise circulation of Hurricane Irma. Favorable conditions for epidemic spread are observed and forecast for the Ohio Valley / lower mid-Atlantic and points south. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, September 11

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL, far eastern MS, AL, GA, the Carolinas, southwest VA, southern WV, far southeast KY, and central and eastern TN. Moderate Risk in western TN and KY. Low Risk for cucurbits in southeast VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, September 12

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in MS, central and northern AL, northern GA, northern SC, NC, most of VA, WV, TN, KY, southeast IL, southern IN, and southern OH. Low Risk for cucurbits in central GA, southern SC, central IN, northern OH, southwest PA, MD, De, and northeast VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 8, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 8 SeptemberNew report from OHCDM has been confirmed in Warren County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 6 SeptemberNew reports from OH, VA, and WVCDM has been confirmed in Pike, Tuscarawas, and Guernsey Counties, OH; Brunswick County, VA; and Mason County, WV. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Powerful Hurricane Irma set to impact the Southeast; mostly dry otherwise. Major Hurricane Irma is moving between Cuba and the Bahamas. Rain will arrive in southern FL later today. Very heavy rain will move up the peninsula Saturday and into the mainland Southeast on Sunday. A broad, strong high pressure dominates the rest of eastern North America. Expect mostly sunny skies and dry weather, save for a weak system that generates some showers in the Northeast on Friday. Cool, with highs in the 60s to 80s and lows in the 40s to 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in FL, much less likely elsewhere. Showers far ahead of HR Irma, and then the hurricane itself, produce very favorable conditions for epidemic spread over the FL peninsula Friday through Sunday. Mixed conditions in the northern regions on Friday generate mid-level risks. Unfavorable conditions are expected for nearly all other transport events. The epidemic spread scenarios will change drastically early next week as Hurricane Irma moves into the southeastern U.S..

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 8

HIGH Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula. Moderate Risk in northern WV, nearby OH, western and northern PA, NY except the north, northern MA, southern VT and NH, and near the QC source. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern OH, southeast MI, southern ON, southeast PA, northern NJ, Long Island, CT, RI, southeast MA, and near the TX source. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 9

HIGH Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula. Low Risk for cucurbits in far northern FL and southeast GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, September 10

HIGH Risk for cucurbits along the FL peninsula, in southeast GA and southern SC. Low Risk for cucurbits in eastern panhandle of FL, southwest and central GA, and central SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

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