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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, October 14, 2016
 

*** Epidemic Update - 7 October: New report from OH. CDM has been confirmed in Stark County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 30 September: New report from TX. CDM has been confirmed in Waller County, TX. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Mostly dry; rain in a few areas each day. On Friday, showers will be focused toward the mid-South near a dissipating front. On Saturday and Sunday, showers are possible in portions of the far South and North. Dry otherwise, with sunny to partly cloudy skies, as high pressure re-asserts control. Highs from the 60s to 80s, lows in the 40s to 60s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely, except for the mid-South on Friday. Transport events are moving in a variety of directions this weekend, and many go near-source or to the northeast. The most favorable conditions for epidemic spread are found for Friday's transport events coming out of parts of MS and AL, generating some significant late-season risk. Slightly favorable to sometimes mixed conditions are expected during a few other events.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, October 14

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern MS and western TN. Moderate Risk in central TN, western KY, and southeast TX. Low Risk for cucurbits in central MS and northwest AL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, October 15

Moderate Risk in southern FL and northern FL. Low risk for cucurbits in the FL panhandle, southeast AL, and the southern half of GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, October 16

Low risk for cucurbits in northern IN, central and southern MI, OH, southern ON, northern PA, western NY, and southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2016

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, October 12, 2016
 

*** Epidemic Update - 7 October: New report from OH. CDM has been confirmed in Stark County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 30 September: New report from TX. CDM has been confirmed in Waller County, TX. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Variable, mostly dry weather. A full-latititude cold front moves through eastern North America during midweek. Showers will travel with the front. The better / best chances are in the Great Lakes / Midwest and in the south-central U.S (Thursday). Much of the East remains dry. Wide ranges characterize the temperatures, with highs from the 50s to 80s, and lows from the 30s to 60s, and cooler behind the front.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Most transport events, which are tracking near-source or between northeast and southeast, are benign. Slightly favorable conditions surround some events in the northern and east-central sections, plus a few in TX, OK, or FL. Cool to cold overnight temperatures are affecting the risks in the North. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, October 12

Low Risk for cucurbits in southeast TX, IN, northern IL, northwest OH, lower MI, northern FL, and southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, October 13

Low risk for cucurbits in southern FL, southeast TX, western OK, central and eastern KY, OH, northern WV, PA, NJ, NY, Long Island, New England except ME, and southern ON. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2016

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, October 10, 2016
 

*** Epidemic Update - 7 October: New report from OH. CDM has been confirmed in Stark County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 30 September: New report from TX. CDM has been confirmed in Waller County, TX. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

A dry period. High pressure governs the weather for at least the next several days, with sunny to partly cloudy skies and no rain in nearly all areas. A front and some associated showers in the Plains will make very slow progress eastward. There will be a wide range of temperatures, with highs from the 50s to 80s and lows from the 30s to 60s. Coldest temperatures will be found in the Northeast. Frost or freeze warnings have been posted for much of that region.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely all areas. Conditions are unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition for almost all transport events on Monday and Tuesday.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, October 10

Low Risk for cucurbits in western OK and central KS. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, October 11

Low risk for cucurbits in southern FL and southeast TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2016

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, October 7, 2016
 

*** Epidemic Update - 7 October: New report from OH. CDM has been confirmed in Stark County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 30 September: New report from TX. CDM has been confirmed in Waller County, TX. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Wet East Coast; mostly dry elsewhere. Major Hurricane Matthew, now just off the east coast of FL, will hug the coastline of FL / GA / SC today and Saturday and then turn east on Sunday. Strong winds and very heavy rain will occur in FL, GA, and the Carolinas. Rainfall farther north comes courtesy of strong onshore flow and an approaching cold front . Most other areas will be dry, though some showers are possible from the Great Lakes down to the southern Plains on Friday due to the cold front. Drier and cooler nearly all areas on Sunday as the front reaches the East Coast and Matthew turns east. Highs generally from the 60s to 80s, lows mostly 40s to 60s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic. Nearly all of the important transport events will occur in the eastern states Friday and Saturday. Events from the southern sources, driven more by the circulations of Hurricane Matthew and the high pressure to the north, move west and southwest or south. Those from the more northern sources tend to move north or northeast. Highly favorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition will be found up and down the East Coast Friday and Saturday. Much less favorable conditions are expected on Sunday and into next week. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, October 7

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, GA, SC, NC, northeast TN, VA, central and eastern WV, western MD, and nearby southwest PA. Low Risk for cucurbits in far southern TX, northern IN, central and southern MI, southern ON, western NY, and western and central PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, October 8

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in eastern GA, the Carolinas, VA, MD, DE, NJ, and central and eastern PA. Low risk for cucurbits in eastern WV, western PA, NY, Long Island, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH, and deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, October 9

Moderate Risk in eastern NC, far southeast VA. Low risk for cucurbits in northeast SC, east-central and southeast NC, interior southeast VA, southeast MD, southern DE, eastern NJ, Long Island, western OK, and south-central KS. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2016

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, October 5, 2016
 

*** Epidemic Update - 30 September: New report from TX. CDM has been confirmed in Waller County, TX. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 28 SeptemberNo new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Unsettled central U.S. and south-Atlantic coast; mostly dry otherwise. Three main weather features are present: A stationary front off the Southeast Coast awaiting the approach of Hurricane Matthew, a frontal system in the central U.S., and high pressure centered in the Northeast extending over much of the eastern / east-central United States. Hurricane Matthew is moving into the Bahamas from the southeast  and will near the southeast FL coast on Thursday. The interaction of the High to the north, the old front, and the hurricane will produce rain and showers along the immediate Southeast Coast on Wednesday and farther inland on Thursday. Meanwhile, the High is holding the central U.S. front at bay through midweek. Expect rain/showers from the Great Lakes into the central Plains each day. Anticipate dry weather in betweeen these systems. Warm with highs mostly in the 70s and 80s, lows fromo the 40s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in FL and parfts of IL / MI. Transport events from the East Coast sources tend toward the south and southwest. Most others curve north. The most favorable weather will occur on Thursday, as HR Matthew draws nearer and the central U.S. nudges eastward. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, October 5

Moderate Risk in northern FL, northern IL, and lower MI except the southeast. Low Risk for cucurbits in western and northern IN, southeast MI, southeast TX, and southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, October 6

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and northern FL, north-central IL, southeast WI, and northern and north-central MI. Moderate Risk in western OK, eastern KS, far southeast GA, eastern SC, eastern NC, south-central MI. Low risk for cucurbits in southeast TX, southern FL, the eastern panhandle, southern and east-central GA, central SC, central NC, southeast VA, northeast IL, northern IN, and southern MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2016

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