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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 1, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 1 September: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 30 AugustNew reports from KY, MA, and INCDM has been confirmed in Caldwell County, KY; Middlesex County, MA; and Knox County, IN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Active weather Friday and Saturday; improving weather on Sunday. Post-Tropical Cyclone Harvey will move through TN and KY today and then move to the northeast. The eastern side of the non-merged midweek fronts accompanies Harvey to the north, while the western side swings southeast as a cold front. Widespread clouds, rain, and showers are forecast for Friday and Saturday. Much drier weather occurs by Sunday. There will be rain in the Northeast / southern Canada, some showers far South, and dry weather elsewhere. Wide range of temperatures ... highs from the 60s to 90s, lows from the 40s to 70s, with a warming trend.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely Friday and Saturday most areas, and in the Northeast on Sunday. The widespread favorable weather produces many opportunities for epidemic spread Friday and Saturday, primarily in and around the source regions. Drying and clearing conditions on Sunday will decrease the threat. Favorable conditions for that day's events will be confined to the upper mid-Atlantic / Northeast / southeast Canada.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 1

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL except the western panhandle, southern and eastern GA, SC and NC, VA, western MD, WV, southwest PA, southern OH, southern IN, KY, northeast TN, and western TN. Moderate Risk in northern AL, far northeast GA, central TN, northern OH, PA except the southwest and northeast, southern NJ, DE, and eastern MD. Low Risk for cucurbits in the western FL panhandle, southern AL, and western GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 2

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northeast KY, OH, northern and central WV, PA except the far north, NJ, MD, DE, northern and eastern VA, eastern NC and SC, southern GA, FL except the western panhandle. Moderate Risk in south-central GA, central SC, central and northwest NC, western and southwest VA, southern WV, northeast TN, central KY, western NY, far northern PA, and Long Island. Low Risk for cucurbits in central and eastern NY, southern VT and NH, MA, CT, RI, southwest NC, western SC, southern AL, the western panhandle of FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, September 3

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern QC, the southern 1/2 of NY, southern VT and NH, southern New England, Long Island, central and eastern PA, NJ, northern DE, and northern MD. Moderate Risk in western PA, northern WV, the FL peninsula, and southeast GA. Low Risk for cucurbits in southern DE, southeast MD, and far eastern VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, August 30, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 30 AugustNew reports from KY, MA, and INCDM has been confirmed in Caldwell County, KY; Middlesex County, MA; and Knox County, IN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 28 August: New reports from VA. CDM has been confirmed in Accomack and Virginia Beach Counties, VA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Active weather, mainly Southeast and east-central U.S.. Rain and showers will be prevalent through midweek and beyond from the central Gulf Coast states into the lower Ohio Valley and Southeast / lower mid-Atlantic regions. This is due to the northeastward-moving remnants of TS Harvey joining forces with a northward-moving warm front. A cold front pushing south form southern Canada will trigger showers in the northern  areas before interactivng with the other systems late Thursday into Friday. Highs in the 70s to 90s, lows in the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread again likely in many regions. Transport events are moving primarily near-source with additional dispersion in a variety of directions, influenced by the changing positions of TS Harvey and the frontal boundaries. Conditions will be favorable in the South on Wednesday. Favorable conditions will continue in the southern areas for Thursday's events, with mixed to favorable conditions present also in the northern areas as that cold front drops toward the known sources.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, August 30

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in far eastern TX, northern LA, southern AR, southwest TN, MS, AL, FL panhandle, western and southern GA, northwest SC, and southwest NC. Moderate Risk in western KY, northwest NC, southwest VA, and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in central FL, central and eastern SC, south-central and southeast NC, eastern OH, and western PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, August 31

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in MS, AL, the FL panhandle, most of GA, northern and central SC, NC, southern VA, southern WV, KY, southern IN, far northern PA, NY except the southeast and Long Island. Moderate Risk in southeast GA, southern SC, eastern OH, PA, northern WV and MD, northern DE, northern and western NH, southeast NY, southern New England, northern VT, and near the QC source. Low Risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, TN, northern IN, northwest OH, northern and eastern VA, southern MD, southern DE, eastern NJ, and Long Island. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, August 28, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 28 August: New reports from VA. CDM has been confirmed in Accomack and Virginia Beach Counties, VA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 25 AugustNew reports from MI and NHCDM has been confirmed in Muskegon County, MI; and Hillsborough County, NH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Unsettled weather most areas. Tropical Storm Harvey, a stalled front, and a (potentially tropical) system east of GA combine to produce wet weather over most of the South and mid-Atlantic. A separate front will produce some showers in the Ohio Valley / Great Lakes. High pressure keeps the Northeast dry. Seasonally cool; highs in the70s and 80s, lows in the 50s and 60s with a few 70s southern areas.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in many regions. A dynamic and convoluted weather situation is unfolding early this week and the scenarios for epidemic spread are following suit. Favorable weather for survivable transport and effective deposition of airborne spores will occur in the western Gulf, FL, the Great Lakes / Ohio Valley, and the mid-Atlantic states. Cucurbits around and in between these regions will be at Low to Moderate risk depending on the environmental conditions at hand and the degree of earlier washout of spores. Transport events show a variety of directions too numerous to list. In general, the regions already affected are the ones most likely to see further disease impact.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, August 28

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southeast TX, LA, southwest MS, central and southern FL, eastern SC, eastern NC, eastern KY, central and western OH, eastern and northern IN, lower MI, and southern ON. Moderate Risk in central SC and NC, southern and eastern VA, southern and eastern MD, and DE. Low Risk for cucurbits in MS except the southwest, western AL, northern FL, southeast GA, western SC and NC, far northeast TN, southwest VA, and eastern OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, August 29

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL, the AL panhandle, southern MS, LA, part of southeast TX, central and eastern NC, eastern VA, central and eastern MD, DE, NJ, southeast PA, Long Island, eastern KY, central and western OH, eastern and northern IN, lower MI, and far southern ON. Low Risk for cucurbits in central and eastern MS, central and southern AL, southern GA, SC, western NC, southwest and western VA, WV, western MD, eastern OH, PA except the southeast, southeast NY, CT, RI, and southeast MA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, August 25, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 25 AugustNew reports from MI and NHCDM has been confirmed in Muskegon County, MI; and Hillsborough County, NH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 23 August: New report from AL. CDM has been confirmed in Chambers County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Wet in TX / LA and FL; dry elsewhere. Hurricane Harvey, which reformed in the Bay of Campeche during midweek, is moving toward the TX central coast. Outer rainbands are already affecting the coastal areas. Huge amounts of rain are expected in TX and later LA this weekend into early next week as Harvey makes landfall and drifts slowly near the TX coast. Meanwhile, a weak low pressure area over FL and the nearby midweek front combine to generate heavy rain in FL and showers along the south-Atlantic and Gulf coasts. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes / southeast Canada governs the weather otherwise with mostly sunny skies and dry weather. A new front may produce some showers in the Midwest on Sunday. Highs in the 70s and 80s with a few 90s South. Lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in TX and FL. The focus is on the southern regions once again for this package. Wet weather in TX and FL supports elevated risks each day; slightly favorable to mixed conditions are expected for the events near the Gulf and south-Atlantic coasts. Transport events are generally moving near the sources across the southern areas. There will also be low levels of risk in a few other regions on one day or another, but nearly all other transport events are benign during the next 3 days.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, August 25

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL. Moderate Risk in southern and southeast TX, northern FL, southeast GA, and southern SC. Low Risk for cucurbits in southwest GA, southeast AL, the eastern FL panhandle, eastern SC, and far southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, August 26

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern and southeast TX and the FL peninsulaModerate Risk in northern and central LA and southwest MS. Low Risk for cucurbits in southeast LA, far southern MS, far southern AL, the FL panhandle, far southern GA, coastal SC and NC, western NC, and part of southwest VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, August 27

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL and southern and southeast TXModerate Risk in southwest AL , southern MS, and LA. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, coastal NC, northern IN, northeast IL, western MI, and eastern WI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, August 23, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 23 August: New report from AL. CDM has been confirmed in Chambers County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 21 AugustFirst report from CTnew reports from IN and OHCDM has been confirmed in Middlesex County, CT; LaPorte County, IN; and Harrison and Licking Counties, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Unsettled South; mostly dry North. A full-latitude cold front stretches from New England down the East Coast and west into TX. High pressure surging southward from Canada ushers in dry, cooler weather for much of eastern North America over the next 2-3 days. Rain and showers will fall along and ahead of the front as it gets pushed to the south-Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. A weak disturbance will trigger generally light rain near the lower Lakes. Highs in the 70s to 90s, lows in the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in parts of FL and NC / SC. Attention is directed toward the southern areas during midweek, where a variety of conditions surround the transport events (mixed in most cases). Transport events tend to track near the sources and to the east or southeast.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, August 23

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL. Moderate Risk in eastern LA, MS, AL, central and southern GA, the Carolinas, and southern VA. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, eastern MD, DE, southern NJ, the western half of NY, and near the sources in QC and southeast TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, August 24

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL, eastern SC, and coastal NCModerate Risk in far eastern OH, northwest PA, western and central NY, far southeast VA, east-central and northeast NC, southern and east-central SC, southern GA, northern FL and the panhandle, southern AL, southern MS, eastern and southeast LA, and near the southeast TX source. Low Risk for cucurbits near the southern TX source, south-central AL, central GA, and west-central SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

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