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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, July 17, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 17 July: New reports from SC, PA, MI, NY, and OH. CDM has been confirmed in Chesterfield County, SC; Juaniata County, PA; Bay County, MI; Niagara County, NY; and Wood County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 14 July: New reports from MI, AL, and PA. CDM has been confirmed in Gratiot and Lenawee Counties, MI; Pickens County, AL; and Northumberland County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Summertime showers South and East. The weekend front is washing out in the mid-Atlantic / Southeast. A second front that moved into the Great Lakes / Ohio Valley late Sunday will wash out by midweek. Partly cloudy skies are expected in most areas. Daily showers, will be more prevalent on Monday compared to Tuesday, as the influence of the fronts decreases. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s, with some cooler readings far North.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in parts of the South and the Northeast (Monday). Transport events move fairly slowly Monday and Tuesday, tracking close to the sources or to the northeast. Favorable conditions will be found both days in the lower Southeast and near the south Atlantic coast, and on Monday in part of the Northeast. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions occur toward the interior Southeast, and in sections of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, July 17

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central NY, central and northeast PA, the coastal plains of the Carolinas, southern GA, southern AL, and FL. Moderate Risk in deep south and east-central TX, southern MS, central AL, central GA, central and western SC, south-central and western NC, northern NJ, and western and eastern NY. Low Risk for cucurbits in Long Island, western CT and MA, southern VT, southern NJ, southeast PA, central and eastern MD, DE, central and eastern VA, and northern NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, July 18

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL, southern AL, southern GA, eastern SC, and southeast NC. Moderate Risk in northeast LA, southern and eastern MS, central sections of AL and GA, central and western SC, NC except the southeast, and extreme southern VA. Low Risk for cucurbits in deep south and east-central TX, NJ, central and eastern PA, southeast NY, Long Island, and southern New England. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, July 14, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 14 July: New reports from MI, AL, and PA. CDM has been confirmed in Gratiot and Lenawee Counties, MI; Pickens County, AL; and Northumberland County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 12 July: New reports from NC, PA, and MS. CDM has been confirmed in Nash County, NC; Mifflin and Blair Counties, PA; and Hinds County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Variable and unsettled weather. The somewhat stationary front over the northern areas moves south and east as a cold front this weekend. The cloudiest and rainiest weather shifts from the more northern sections on Friday to the central and southern sections on Saturday and Sunday. Drier weather will occur over the North behind the front, although a second front will produce some scattered showers on one day or another. Highs in the 80s and 90s, some 70s North. Lows in the 60s and 70s, with some 50s North.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely across the South and in part of the Northeast. The most favorable conditions for epidemic spread follow along with the front and occur daily, to lesser or greater extent, over the southern U.S.. Transport events for each of the next several days track near the sources and/or to the east and/or northeast.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, July 14

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL, the FL panhandle, southern AL, far southeast MS, central and northeast PA, NJ, Long Island, central and eastern NY, far western MA, and western CT. Moderate Risk for southeast PA, central and southern NJ, northern DE, western NC, northern FL, southwest GA, east-central and northwest AL, and western MS. Low Risk for cucurbits near the TX sources, and in northern GA, central and eastern NC, western PA, western NY, eastern CT, RI, MA, southern VT, and southern NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, July 15

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central MS, AL, the FL panhandle, western GA, western NC, and northern SC. Moderate Risk near the southeast TX source, and in southern and west-central FL, central and eastern GA, SC except for the north, central and eastern NC, and southeast VA. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern FL and southeast GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, July 16

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central MS, AL, the FL panhandle, GA, southern and eastern SC, and southeast NC. Moderate Risk on the FL peninsula, near the TX sources, northwest SC, NC except the southeast, central and eastern MI, southern ON, northern OH, northwest PA, and western and west-central NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, July 12, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 12 July: New reports from NC, PA, and MS. CDM has been confirmed in Nash County, NC; Mifflin and Blair Counties, PA; and Hinds County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 10 July: First reports from VA. New reports from OH, NC, and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Dinwiddie and Suffolk Counties, VA; Huron County, OH; McDowell County, NC; and Darlington County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Active weather North; varied weather Central and South. A wavy front is draped over the northern areas. Rain and showers will occur near the front while the western side of the boundary slowly sags to the south. Hot and humid air resides in the central and southern U.S.. Some areas will be dry; others will have isolated to scattered showers. Hot south of the front with highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s. Cooler readings will occur north of the front.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the lower Lakes, Northeast, and the South. Transport events, most of which move near-source, east, or northeast, encounter a variety of conditions through midweek. The more favorable weather and highest risks will be found in parts of the Southeast and parts of the Northeast (near the front).  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, July 12

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL, the FL panhandle, southern AL, far southeast MS, southeast MI, southern ON, western NY, east-central and eastern PA, northern NJ, and far southeast NY. Moderate Risk for northern OH, northern PA, central NY, northern FL, central and southern GA, east-central AL, western MS, and deep south TX. Low Risk for cucurbits in part of east-central TX, western NC, northeast SC / southeast NC, central and southern NJ, eastern NY, western VT, CT, Long Island, RI, and southeast MA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, July 13

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southeast MI, northern OH, southern ON, western NY, PA, northern NJ, and central and southern FL. Moderate Risk in northern FL, the FL panhandle, southern and eastern AL, central MS, southeast NY, Long Island, CT, RI, far southeast MA, northern SC, and western NC. Low Risk for cucurbits in east-central and deep south TX, central and southern NJ, DE, and eastern MD. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, July 10, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 10 July: First reports from VA. New reports from OH, NC, and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Dinwiddie and Suffolk Counties, VA; Huron County, OH; McDowell County, NC; and Darlington County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 7 July: First report from NY. New reports from AL, NJ, and NC. CDM has been confirmed in Erie County, NY; Houston, Macon, and Lee Counties, AL; Warren County, NJ; and Buncombe and Carteret County, NC. The report from Allen County, KY has been removed. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Scattered to numerous showers many areas. High pressure is sprawled over eastern North America early this week, delivering copious amounts of warm, humid air. A cold front will generate some rain in the northern areas. Scattered to numerous showers will occur daily in the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Portions of the mid-Atlantic and mid-South regions will be dry. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast and lower Lakes / Northeast. Mixed to favorable conditions for epidemic spread surround most of Monday's and Tuesday's transport events. Most events track to the northeast on Monday, and to the east (northern sources) and northeast (other sources) on Tuesday. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, July 10

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in the FL panhandle, the southern half of AL, central and southern GA, SC, south-central and southeast NC, northern OH, southern ON, and eastern MI. Moderate Risk in east-central TX and the FL peninsula. Low Risk for cucurbits in southwest MS, northeast LA, wester / north-central / northeast NC, far southeast VA, northeast MI, NJ, far southeast PA, southeast NY, Long Island, CT, and western MA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, July 11

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in eastern OH, the southern 1/2 of NY, PA except the southeast, northern NJ, western CT, western MA, southern VT, FL, southern AL, southern GA, eastern SC, and far southeast NC. Moderate Risk in southern NH, central and eastern MA, RI, eastern CT, Long Island, central and southern NJ, southeast PA, eastern NC, central SC, central GA, central AL, western MS, far northeast LA, and southeast AR. Low Risk for cucurbits in east-central TX, northern GA, western SC, and western and central NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, July 7, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 7 July: First report from NY. New reports from AL, NJ, and NC. CDM has been confirmed in Erie County, NY; Houston, Macon, and Lee Counties, AL; Warren County, NJ; and Buncombe and Carteret County, NC. The report from Allen County, KY has been removed. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 5 July: New reports from NJ, PA, and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Cumberland County, NJ; Columbia County, PA; and Clarendon County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

A fairly active summer pattern continues. Scattered PM showers and storms will impact many areas of eastern North America, aided by a humid environment and a series of fronts. Some places will be dry. Mostly northern sections will see more drying late Saturday into Sunday as high pressure moves in after the second front and before the third one arrives. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast and parts of the North. The most favorable conditions for epidemic spread occur during the northern transport events on Friday (many areas with High Risk) and across the southern U.S. each day (mixed conditions Friday and Saturday, favorable weather on Sunday). Transport events, in most cases, track near the sources and to the east to ENE.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, July 7

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southeast MI, northeast OH, southern ON, northern and eastern PA, western / central / southeast NY, Long Island, NJ, and northern DE. Moderate Risk in southern DE, eastern MD, a broad swath of central and southern NC, SC, central and southern GA, FL, southern AL, and southern MS. Low Risk for cucurbits in parts of southern and east-central TX, northern NC, eastern NY, southern VT, southwest NH, MA except the far east, RI, and CT. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, July 8

HIGH Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula. Moderate Risk in southern MS, southern AL, the FL panhandle, central and southern GA, central and eastern SC, southeast NC, western NY, eastern PA, northern DE, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, CT, RI, and southeast MA. Low Risk for cucurbits in southern DE, eastern MD, southeast VA, NC except the southeast , western SC, and parts of deep south and east-central TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, July 9

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL, southern AL, the southern half of GA, and southern SC. Moderate Risk in southwest MS, northeast SC, and eastern NC. Low Risk for cucurbits in western NY and part of east-central TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

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