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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, September 13, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 13 September: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 11 SeptemberNew report from NYCDM has been confirmed in Clinton County, NY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Varied weather with showers. The remnant Low from Hurricane Irma will pass from the Ohio Valley through the middle Atlantic states. These regions will see the most cloudiness and the better chance of rain. Otherwise, diffuse high pressure lies over the rest of eastern North America. Expect fewer clouds and mostly isolated showers, if any. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the TN / OH Valleys and the upper mid-Atlantic. The focus during midweek is on the favorable weather associated with what is left of HR Irma. Most transport events are tracking near-source or east to northeast. The High Risk areas will be surrounded by lower risks as conditions farther away from the really unsettled weather become less favorable during those events.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, September 13

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern AL, central and eastern TN, KY, far western WV, southeast IL, central and southern IN, southern and western OH, eastern MD, DE, southeast PA, and southern NJ. Moderate Risk in southern FL, southeast GA, western NC, southwest VA, WV, northern and eastern OH, southeast MI, southern ON, western MD, PA except the southeast, western and central NY, and northern NJ. Low Risk for cucurbits in southeast NY, western CT, western Long Island, eastern IL, northern IN, west-central VA, central NC, and western and central SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, September 14

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in eastern KY, southeast OH, northwest WV, PA, NY except the north, NJ, DE, and MD. Moderate Risk in the FL peninsula, central OH, western NC, southwest VA, Long Island, southern New England, and southern VT and NH. Low Risk for cucurbits in northwest OH, northern SC, central and eastern NC, and VA except the southwest. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, September 11, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 11 SeptemberNew report from NYCDM has been confirmed in Clinton County, NY. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 8 SeptemberNew report from OHCDM has been confirmed in Warren County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Very unsettled weather southern areas, moving north on Tuesday. Hurricane Irma made landfall in southwest FL yesterday and moved up the west coast. Widespread clouds and heavy rain accompany her today as she enters the heart of the Southeast on the way into the TN Valley. High pressure centered over the Great Lakes shifts east with time, allowing the wet weather to move north. Highs in the 60s to 80s, lows mostly 50s and 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely southern and central sections, unlikely across the northern tier. Transport events are largely governed by the counter-clockwise circulation of Hurricane Irma. Favorable conditions for epidemic spread are observed and forecast for the Ohio Valley / lower mid-Atlantic and points south. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, September 11

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL, far eastern MS, AL, GA, the Carolinas, southwest VA, southern WV, far southeast KY, and central and eastern TN. Moderate Risk in western TN and KY. Low Risk for cucurbits in southeast VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, September 12

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in MS, central and northern AL, northern GA, northern SC, NC, most of VA, WV, TN, KY, southeast IL, southern IN, and southern OH. Low Risk for cucurbits in central GA, southern SC, central IN, northern OH, southwest PA, MD, De, and northeast VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 8, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 8 SeptemberNew report from OHCDM has been confirmed in Warren County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 6 SeptemberNew reports from OH, VA, and WVCDM has been confirmed in Pike, Tuscarawas, and Guernsey Counties, OH; Brunswick County, VA; and Mason County, WV. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Powerful Hurricane Irma set to impact the Southeast; mostly dry otherwise. Major Hurricane Irma is moving between Cuba and the Bahamas. Rain will arrive in southern FL later today. Very heavy rain will move up the peninsula Saturday and into the mainland Southeast on Sunday. A broad, strong high pressure dominates the rest of eastern North America. Expect mostly sunny skies and dry weather, save for a weak system that generates some showers in the Northeast on Friday. Cool, with highs in the 60s to 80s and lows in the 40s to 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in FL, much less likely elsewhere. Showers far ahead of HR Irma, and then the hurricane itself, produce very favorable conditions for epidemic spread over the FL peninsula Friday through Sunday. Mixed conditions in the northern regions on Friday generate mid-level risks. Unfavorable conditions are expected for nearly all other transport events. The epidemic spread scenarios will change drastically early next week as Hurricane Irma moves into the southeastern U.S..

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 8

HIGH Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula. Moderate Risk in northern WV, nearby OH, western and northern PA, NY except the north, northern MA, southern VT and NH, and near the QC source. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern OH, southeast MI, southern ON, southeast PA, northern NJ, Long Island, CT, RI, southeast MA, and near the TX source. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 9

HIGH Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula. Low Risk for cucurbits in far northern FL and southeast GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, September 10

HIGH Risk for cucurbits along the FL peninsula, in southeast GA and southern SC. Low Risk for cucurbits in eastern panhandle of FL, southwest and central GA, and central SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, September 6, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 6 SeptemberNew reports from OH, VA, and WVCDM has been confirmed in Pike, Tuscarawas, and Guernsey Counties, OH; Brunswick County, VA; and Mason County, WV. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 4 SeptemberNew report from PACDM has been confirmed in Berks County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Active Wednesday; drying Thursday. The very long early-week cold front ... now stretching along the Eastern Seaboard and across the northern Gulf ... moves offshore on Thursday. Rain and showers occur Wednesday on the East Coast. High pressure in the central U.S. builds eastward on Thursday behind the front. Showers are expected in the Great Lakes / Northeast through the period due to the initial system Wednesday and then a weak secondary system on Thursday. Highs from the 60s to 90s, lows from the 40s to 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely during Wednesday's transport events. Said transport events are tracking near-source and to the east and northeast. Conditions are favorable along and ahead of the extended cold front and in the wrap-around section of the system that's over the Great Lakes. Much less chance of epidemic spread is anticipated for Thursday's events. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions occur in the northern areas.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, September 6

HIGH Risk for cucurbits along the FL peninsula, and in southeast GA, the Carolinas, VA, MD, DE, central and eastern PA, NJ, Long Island, southeast NY, southern New England, southern VT and NH, near the QC source, central and southern MI, northern IN, northern and central OH, and far southern ON. Moderate Risk in southern OH, western and central NY, southwest GA, and the eastern FL panhandle. Low Risk for cucurbits in eastern OH, western PA, northern WV, central GA, southern AL, the western FL panhandle, and near the southern TX source. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, September 7

Moderate Risk in central and southern MI, northern and eastern OH, southern ON, southern QC, northern WV, western and northern PA, NY except the southeast, and central and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern IN, southwest OH, southeast PA, northern NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, the New England states except central and eastern ME. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, September 4, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 4 SeptemberNew report from PACDM has been confirmed in Berks County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 1 September: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Mostly dry Monday; more unsettled Tuesday. Yet another summer cold front will surge into eastern North America early this week. Scattered showers move into the Great Lakes / Midwest today and progress into the East and South on Tuesday. Highs from the70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in many areas on Tuesday. Transport events trend toward the northeast on Monday and to the east and northeast on Tuesday. After a largely benign day on Monday, risks to cucurbits blossom on Tuesday as many events encounter more favorable conditions along and ahead of the cold front. Cucurbits most affected lie in a swath from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, September 4

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central MI and the FL peninsula. Moderate Risk in southeast GA and deep south TX. Low Risk for cucurbits in southwest GA, the eastern FL panhandle, northern IN, southern MI, and southern ON. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, September 5

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL, KY except the west-central, WV, southern OH, PA except the northwest, northern NJ, western MD, the southeast 1/2 of NY, western CT, western MA, southern VT and NH, southern ME, and near the QC source. Moderate Risk in deep south TX, northern FL, central MS, northern AL, GA except the southwest, SC, central and western NC, eastern TN, northern / western / southwest VA, eastern MI, southern ON, northwest PA, and western and northern NY. Low Risk for cucurbits in the FL panhandle, southwest PA, southern AL, eastern NC, eastern VA, central and eastern MD, DE, southern NJ, Long Island, eastern CT, RI, eastern MA, and eastern OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

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