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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, November 2, 2018

 

*** Forecast notes - 5 November: Forecasts for the 2018 disease season have ended. ***
 

*** Epidemic Update - 5 October: First report from Maine. CDM has been confirmed in Penobscot County, ME. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 26 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern United States

Wet Friday, dry Saturday. High pressure builds in behind the full-latitude frontal system exiting the eastern U.S. on Saturday. Friday's rainy weather in the Southeast gives way to much drier weather, with only some showers in central and southern FL. Highs in the 70s/80s going to 60s/70s. Lows from the 50s-70s going to 40s-60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in the Southeast. Conditions are favorable for epidemic spread in the Southeast along and ahead of the front moving through the region on Friday. Most transport events track east to northeast. Potential for spread is greatly suppressed for Saturday's events.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, November 2

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and northern FL, the FL panhandle, southern AL and GA, and central and eastern SC. Low Risk for eastern NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, November 3

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, October 31, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 5 October: First report from Maine. CDM has been confirmed in Penobscot County, ME. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 26 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern United States

Dry weather gives way to wet. A vigorous autumn frontal system tracks west to east across eastern North America. Showers and rain impact the lower MS Valley on Wednesday and move into the Southeast on Thursday. Highs mostly 70s and 80s, lows in the 40s to 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread less likely Wednesday, more likely Thursday. Some short-range epidemic spread is possible near the central Gulf region on Wednesday while the rest of the South is dry. More favorable conditions envelop the southern states on Thursday.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, October 31

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northeast LA and western MS. Low Risk for southwest AL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, November 1

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northeast LA / southwest MS, southern and central AL, the FL panhandle, western GA, and central and northern FL. Low Risk for eastern and central SC and eastern NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, October 28, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 5 October: First report from Maine. CDM has been confirmed in Penobscot County, ME. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 26 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern United States

Fair weather. A cold front drops through the southern U.S. over the next few days with high pressure settling over the East. No precipitation is expected with this frontal passage. Skies will be sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 60s to 80s, lows in the 40s to 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread quite unlikely. Conditions are very unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition of any airborne spores each day.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, October 28

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, October 29

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Tuesday, October 30

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, October 26, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 5 October: First report from Maine. CDM has been confirmed in Penobscot County, ME. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 26 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern United States

A transition period. Potent weather system brings plenty of rain to the Southeast and nearby areas on Friday. A developing coastal Low moves through the Southeast and into the mid-Atlantic on Saturday, dragging a cold front as it goes. Drying commences on Saturday. Clouds and light rain may linger in the lower TN Valley / lower mid-Atlantic. Highs from the 40s to 80s, lows from the 40s to 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in the Southeast. Friday's widespread rains and cool but still partially favorable temperatures support the possibility of epidemic spread, mostly in portions of  AL / GA / SC. Saturday's conditions will be much less favorable.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, October 26

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern AL, the eastern FL panhandle, central and southern GA, and southern SC. Low Risk for central FL, the western panhandle, southwest AL, northeast SC, and eastern NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, October 27

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, October 24, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 5 October: First report from Maine. CDM has been confirmed in Penobscot County, ME. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 26 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern United States

Increasingly active weather. High pressure sprawled over the eastern U.S. will yield to a system coming out of the Gulf. Clouds and rain impact the lower MS Valley Wednesday and encompass the Southeast Thursday and Thursday night. Highs mostly 60s and 70s, lows mostly 40s-60s..

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread is possible in the deep South. The potential for epidemic spread is much greater Thursday than Wednesday, as the system in the Gulf of Mexico stretches its influence to the ENE. Transport events generally move near-source and west due to the position of the low pressure area / front to the south and high pressure to the north in the Ohio Valley / mid-Atlantic.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, October 24

Low Risk for west-central FL, southwest MS, and northern LA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, October 25

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern LA, MS, far southern TN, AL, southern GA, and FL except the southern counties. Low Risk for central GA and southern SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

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