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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, August 23, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 23 August: First report from OH. New reports from VA and NC. CDM has been confirmed in Wayne County, OH; Albemarle County, VA; and Rowan County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 21 August: First reports from KY and WI; New reports from DE, MA, and MI. CDM has been confirmed in Pulaski County, KY; Vernon County, WI; New Castle County, DE; Franklin County, MA; and Calhoun, Saginaw, Ingham, and Kalamazoo Counties, MI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Active weather southern and central states; drying in the North. The unusual weather pattern for late August continues. The cold front now in the mid-Atlantic / southern Ohio valley moves into the South over the weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will occur near and ahead of the front and northwestward through the central U.S.. Meanwhile, high pressure rolling across the North builds in behind the front. Areas around the Great lakes and Northeast will dry out. Highs in the 80s to low 100s South and Central, 70s and 80s elsewhere north of the front. Lows follow suit with those readings in the 60s and 70s South and Central, 50s and 60s otherwise.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely most areas. Conditions are favorable for survivable transport and effective deposition of airborne CDM spores for transport events coming out of sources in the South, mid-Atlantic (including the southern Appalachians), and Northeast (on Friday). Events are moving differently this weekend. Most are being controlled by circulation around the high pressure to the North, curving them to the southwest, west, or northwest. Cloudiness and rain north of the front, in combination with the winds, may result in epidemic spread to new areas in the TN Valley / southern Ohio Valley.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, August 23

HIGH Risk for central and southern Alabama, the western FL panhandle, eastern KY and TN, western and northeast NC, southern WV, VA, MD, DE, NJ, central and eastern PA, Long Island, southeast NY, and southern New England. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and southeast NC, SC, and central GA. Low Risk in southern GA, and FL except the western panhandle. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, August 24

HIGH Risk in the FL panhandle, AL, GA but the southeast, eastern TN, far southwest VA, SC, and NC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southeast VA. Low risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, southeast GA, central and northwest MO, and northeast KS. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, August 25

HIGH Risk in eastern MS, the FL panhandle, AL, GA, eastern and south-central TN, SC, far southwest VA, and all but north-central NC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central KY, central and northwest MO, and southwest IA. Low risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, north-central and western TN, western KY, southwest IN, north-central NC, southeast VA, eastern MD, DE, NJ, southern CT, and Long Island. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, August 21, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 21 August: First reports from KY and WI; New reports from DE, MA, and MI. CDM has been confirmed in Pulaski County, KY; Vernon County, WI; New Castle County, DE; Franklin County, MA; and Calhoun, Saginaw, Ingham, and Kalamazoo Counties, MI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 19 August: First report from IN. CDM has been confirmed in Knox County, IN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Strong frontal system to impact eastern North America. A sultry environment lies along and ahead of a strong summer frontal system pressing south and east into eastern North America. Unsettled weather will be the norm through midweek and likely beyond. Highs in the 70s North to 90s South, lows in the 60s and 70s with 50s in the North.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Elevated risks for many growing regions. The most favorable conditions involve the transport events out of the Northeast today, and on Thursday for those along a swath from the central U.S. eastward through the Ohio Valley, southern Appalachians, and the mid-Atlantic. These and many other growing areas will be at some form of enhanced risk for both Wednesday's and Thursday's events.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, August 21

HIGH Risk for central and northern NJ, northeast PA, southeast NY, Long Island, southern New England, VT, NH, and western ME. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central MO, central and eastern MI, southern ON, far northern OH, central and southern AL, the FL panhandle, most of southern GA, eastern and far northwestern SC, southeast KY, eastern TN, southern WV, western NC, southwest and far southwest VA, the eastern 1/2 of NC, far eastern VA, central and eastern MD, DE, southern NJ, and central and southeast PA. Low Risk in the FL peninsula, southeast GA, central SC and NC, south-central VA, central and eastern ME, southwest MI, southwest WI, far eastern IA, and northwest IL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, August 22

HIGH Risk in eastern TN, southeast KY, far southwest VA, southern WV, southwest IN, west-central MO, central and eastern PA, NJ, and northern DE. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in the FL panhandle, AL, GA, SC, NC, southern and eastern VA, central and eastern MD, and central and southern DE. Low risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL, southeast NY, Long Island, southern VT and NH, MA, CT, RI, far southwest MI, and northern IN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, August 19, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 19 August: First report from IN. CDM has been confirmed in Knox County, IN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 16 August: New reports from NY, PA, and MI. CDM has been confirmed in Suffolk County, NY; York County, PA; and Allegan and Muskegon Counties, MI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: East-central / Eastern U.S.

Hot and humid with scattered showers. The early-week weather starts with the strong Bermuda High centered offshore. There are a number of fronts present, remnants of old ones in the South and East and 2 others in the North (one in place now, another arriving Tuesday). Skies will be sunny to partly cloudy. Scattered to perhaps numerous showers and storms are expected in most areas. Highs in the upper 80s to low 100s, lows well into the 60s and 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely Southeast, possible many other areas. The fairly stagnant mid-summer pattern produces a situation similar to many previous forecasts. Most transport events track near-source or northeast. Conditions vary day-to-day and from event to event. This results in risks that vary between Low and Moderate for most growing areas that are impacted. The most favorable conditions will be in portions of the Southeast. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, August 19

HIGH Risk for central and southern AL, the FL panhandle, southern GA, and far southern SC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and eastern SC, western NC, southwest VA, eastern NC, far eastern PA, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, and western CT. Low Risk in southern ME, southeast NH, the eastern 1/2 of MA, RI, eastern CT, central and southeast PA, DE, eastern 1/2 of MD, southeast VA, the FL peninsula, eastern TN, western MI, northern IN, and southwest IN and nearby parts of KY and IL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, August 20

HIGH Risk for the FL panhandle, southern AL, southern GA, and west-central SC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central AL, central and northern GA, eastern TN, southeast KY, northwest and eastern SC, NC, all but northwest VA, central and eastern MD, DE, southern NY, central and eastern PA, central and northeast MO, southern IN, and nearby northwest KY. Low risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, central and western MI, far northern IN, southern New England, far southern VT and NH, Long Island, south-central and southeast NY, and northern NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, August 16, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 16 August: New reports from NY, PA, and MI. CDM has been confirmed in Suffolk County, NY; York County, PA; and Allegan and Muskegon Counties, MI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 14 August: First reports from NY, MO, and DE; new reports from MD and PA. CDM has been confirmed in Orange County, NY; Morgan County, MO; Sussex County, DE; Centre County, PA; and Prince George's County, MD. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: East-central / Eastern U.S.

Unsettled weather most regions. There is a stationary front persisting along the East Coast. Another frontal system in the central U.S. expands into the Great Lakes and Northeast with time. Weakish high pressure lies in between through the weekend. The wetter regions are toward the lower Southeast / south Atlantic coast and from the central U.S. across the northern areas. It will be drier from the south-central U.S. into the mid-South and portions of the mid-Atlantic. Highs mostly 80s and 90s, lows mostly 60s and 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely many areas. Transport events move in multiple directions over the next 3 days, though most tend to track near the source and/or to the east or northeast. Conditions during the events change day to day. For any particular source during this period of favorable weather, the conditions will be slightly favorable or more on succesive days, increasing the overall threat of disease development. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, August 16

HIGH Risk for the eastern FL panhandle, southeast GA, eastern SC, and southeast NC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and eastern MO, western IL, northeast NC, eastern VA, central and eastern MD, DE, NJ, central and easetern PA and NY. Low Risk in western MI, southwest to east-central GA, central SC, south-central NC and the FL peninsula. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, August 17

HIGH Risk for central and northeast MO, the eastern FL panhandle, southern GA, and southern SC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in the western panhandle, southeast AL, central GA, central and northeast SC, eastern NC, the NC mountains, central and eastern PA, nrothern NJ, central and eastern NY, southern VT, northern IN, and western and central MI. Low risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, southeast IA, western IL, central and eastern MD, DE, southern and central NJ, Long Island, and southern New England. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, August 18

HIGH Risk for the FL panhandle, southern GA, southern AL, southern SC, southwest MI, and far northern IN. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central AL and GA, SC except the south, western and southeast NC, central and northeast PA, south-central and eastern NY, southern VT and NH, MA, CT, RI, and central Nd northeast MO. Low risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, eastern TN, far southeast KY, northeast NC, eastern VA, the eastern 1/2 of MD, DE, southeast PA, NJ, Long Island, central and eastern MI, far southern ON, and western IL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, August 14, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 14 August: First reports from NY, MO, and DE; new reports from MD and PA. CDM has been confirmed in Orange County, NY; Morgan County, MO; Sussex County, DE; Centre County, PA; and Prince George's County, MD. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 10 August: New report from VA. CDM has been confirmed in Suffolk County, VA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: East-central / Eastern U.S.

Active weather. A complex frontal system over the eastern U.S. remains essentially in place. Clouds and showers / rain will be the norm. High pressure centered to the west keeps portions of the east-central U. S. dry. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely from AL up the East Coast. The main front lies from the mid-Atlantic southwestward through the deep South. Transport events from the southeastern sources move northeast. Other events move near-source and south (Wednesday) or near-source and some curving west / north (Thursday). Mixed to favorable conditions dominate most events. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, August 14

HIGH Risk for central and southern AL, the FL panhandle, central and southern GA, eastern SC, southeast NC, central and eastern MD, DE, southeast PA, and NJ. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern New England, Long Island, southeast NY, northeast PA, far southern MD, southeast VA, NC except the southeast, northeast TN, central and western SC, southwest MI, northern IN, northeast IL, and southeast MI. Low Risk on the FL peninsula and in central PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, August 15

HIGH Risk for the western FL panhandle, southern GA, eastern SC, the eastern half of NC, eastern VA, central and eastern MD, DE, central and eastern PA, and NJ. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and southeast NY, western MA, CT, Long Island, the western half of NC, central and western SC, southern AL, and the western FL panhandle. Low risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, central AL, northern and central IN, and southwest MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

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