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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Tuesday, July 17, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 17 July: First report from VA. New Report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Dinwiddie County, VA; and Hyde County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 15 July: New reports from AL and NJ. CDM had been confirmed in Escambia and Baldwin Counties, AL; and in Warren County, NJ. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Cold front impacts the eastern U.S.. Active weather with abundant clouds and showers will occur Tuesday as the front moves over the Appalachians and into our regions of interest. The front clears the mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday; progressive high pressure traverses the northern U.S. in its wake then brings 2-3 days of dry weather. Showers continue in the South after the front stalls. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast and PA(Tuesday). Conditions during Tuesday's transport events are mixed or favorable for epidemic spread. Thereafter, unfavorable weather makes increasing inroads in the mid-Atlantic region and the events of interest occur in the Southeast. A variety of conditions surround those transport events on Wednesday and Thursday. Airborne spores track east to northeast ahead of the front, south to sometimes west behind the front (nearly all these events have minimal impact).   

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Tuesday, July 17

HIGH Risk for south-central and southeast PA, southeast AL, central and southern GA, southern SC, and the FL panhandle. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northern SC, central and eastern NC, eastern VA, southeast MD, DE, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, and southern New England. Low Risk for northern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Wednesday, July 18

HIGH Risk for the southern half of AL, the FL panhandle, central and southern GA, and far southern SC. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in south-central and northeast SC, and far southeast NC. Low Risk to cucurbits in north-central SC, and most of southeast and eastern NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Thursday, July 19

HIGH Risk for southern AL, FL panhandle, and southern GA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in east-central AL, west-central and south-central GA, and far southern SC. Low Risk in east-central GA, and central and northern SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, July 15, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 15 July: New reports from AL and NJ. CDM had been confirmed in Escambia and Baldwin Counties, AL; and in Warren County, NJ. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 13 July: First report from PA. CDM has been confirmed in Mifflin County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Standard summertime weather with showers. Loose high pressure sits over the eastern U.S., gradually shifting offshore. A front now in the Midwest approaches over the next two days. It will generate scattered PM showers in the Southeast, the northern mid-Atlantic, and along and west of the mountains. Large sections of the lower mid-Atlantic / SC will be dry on Sunday and see a chance of rain on Monday. Look for near-normal temperatures with highs in the 90s, lows in the upper 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast and PA/NJ, possible elsewhere along the East Coast states. Conditions during most transport events are mixed or favorable for survivable transport and effective deposition. Transport events track near the sources and east / northeast.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, July 15

HIGH Risk for southern AL, western and southern GA, the FL panhandle, northern FL, most of central and eastern PA, and northern NJ. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southeast NY, Long Island, CT, RI, southeast MA, southeast PA, southern NJ, and DE. Low Risk for eastern GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, July 16

HIGH Risk for GA and southern and eastern AL. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in far southeast GA, all but northeast SC, central PA, and south-central NY. Low Risk to cucurbits in northeast SC, central and eastern NC, eastern VA, central and eastern MD, DE, southeast PA, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, southern New England (CT, RI, MA), and central NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, July 13, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 13 July: First report from PA. CDM has been confirmed in Mifflin County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 8 July: New reports from DE (First report) and MD. CDM had been confirmed in Kent County, DE; and in Wicomico County, MD. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Showers Southeast, dry mid-Atlantic. High pressure lies over the mid-Atlantic / Northeast and a stationary front sits over the upper Southeast. The latter feature keeps a chance of showers over the Southeast as it wavers around AL / GA / SC. The former keeps the mid-Atlantic largely dry, though the upper sections may get a shower on Saturday as a front approaches. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s, with a warming trend.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in the Southeast. Transport events tend to move near the sources the next 2 days. Sunny to partly cloudy skies, coupled with varying chances / amounts of rain, yield a range of conditions but no High Risk scenarios are forecast.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, July 13

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in far eastern GA, and SC except the north-central. Low Risk for northern FL and the eastern panhandle, southeast AL, central and southern GA, north-central SC, and south-central and southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, July 14

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southeast AL, central and southern GA, far southern SC, and far northern FL. Low Risk to cucurbits in west-central FL, central and eastern SC, southeast NC, and central PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Tuesday, July 10, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 8 July: New reports from DE (First report) and MD. CDM had been confirmed in Kent County, DE; and in Wicomico County, MD. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 3 July: First report from NJ; new report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Salem County, NJ; and in Wake County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Mostly dry Tuesday; scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday. A stationary front is dissipating over the Southeast while a cold front moves into the mid-Atlantic from the north. Scattered showers will occur late Tuesday and Wednesday in the mid-Atlantic. Generally drier weather in the Southeast gives way to increased chances of rain on Thursday. Hurricane Chris will move off to the northeast on Wednesday. Highs in the 90s, lows in the upper 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible near the sources Wednesday and Thursday. Conditions on Tuesday are unfavorable for all events. Slightly favorable to perhaps mixed conditions are anticipated for some transport events on Wednesday and Thursday. Events move mainly near the sources.  

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Tuesday, July 10

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Wednesday, July 11

Low Risk to cucurbits in the FL panhandle, southwest GA, southern and central AL, eastern NC, southeast VA, eastern MD, DE, and southern NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Thursday, July 12

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southeast AL and central GA. Low Risk in the FL panhandle, southern GA, central and eastern SC, the eastern half of NC, and southeast VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, July 8, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 8 July: New reports from DE and MD. CDM had been confirmed in Kent County, DE; and in Wicomico County, MD. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 3 July: First report from NJ; new report from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Salem County, NJ; and in Wake County, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Showers part of the Southeast; dry elsewhere. High pressure is wedging down the Eastern Seaboard behind the late-week cold front which has stalled over the far South. Cooler, drier air will govern the mid-Atlantic states plus SC and sections of GA. Showers and storms are possible along and south of the stationary front. Tropical Storm Chris has formed off the southern NC coast. He wobbles in place the next 2 days. Clouds and some showers in far eastern NC are the impacts. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s, with a warming trend.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the lower Southeast. Transport events move mainly near the sources. A variety of conditions is expected in the Southeast. Events out of SC and the mid-Atlantic are surrounded by unfavorable conditions. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, July 8

HIGH Risk for far southwestern GA, southeast AL, and the FL panhandle. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central AL, and most of southwest GA. Low risk for most of northern and central FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, July 9

HIGH Risk for far southwest GA, far southeastern AL, the eastern FL panhandle and nearby northern FL. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southeast and east-central AL, and in central GA. Low Risk in far southeast GA and most of central and northern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

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