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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, September 25, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 25 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in Lee County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 22 September: New report from NH. CDM has been confirmed in Rockingham County, NH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Dry weather overall; rain in the Plains; showers from Maria in the East? The weather pattern is stagnant with high pressure ruling eastern North America and fronts in the Plains / upper Midwest / southern Canada. Suuny to partly cloudy skies and dry weather are dominant. Hurricane Maria, moving north off the Southeast coast, will introduce some clouds, showers, and wind to the mid-Atlantic coast. The front in the Plains has plenty of rain associated with it as it inches eastward.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely most regions. The favorable conditions in the Plains states should have little impact on the early-week transport events. Most events are benign. Some epidemic spread is possible in parts of the South, and along the mid-Atlantic coast (mainly on Tuesday). 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, September 25

Moderate Risk in southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in far eastern NC, west-central FL, the FL panhandle, AL, eastern and southwest MS, and deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, September 26

Moderate Risk for deep south TX, southern FL, far eastern NC. Low Risk for cucurbits in southwest MS, northeast LA, eastern NC, eastern VA, eastern MD, DE, and southern NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 22, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 22 September: New report from NH. CDM has been confirmed in Rockingham County, NH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 20 September: New report from NH. CDM has been confirmed in Stafford County, NH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Generally dry with showers possible South. The weather situation will be much like it was over the past few days. High pressure remains firmly entrenched over eastern North America, with fronts staying to the west and north. Pesky post-tropical cyclone Jose slowly exits the New England coast. Dry weather is dominant. Scattered showers will occur in parts of the South each day. Major Hurricane Maria, now north of Hispaniola, is turning to the north and should remain well offshore the southern Atlantic coast. Expect few, if any, weather impacts from Maria until next week. Warm to hot with highs well into the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely most regions, possible in the South. Conditions are unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition of airborne spores during the nearly all the transport events coming out of the northern and central regions. A daily hodge-podge of conditions is expected for the events emanating from the southern sources, only a few of which generate High risk. Transport events tend to move near the sources in most cases. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 22

Moderate Risk on the FL peninsula, and in the western panhandle of FL, AL, southwest MS, eastern MA, eastern CT, and RI. Low Risk for cucurbits in the eastern FL panhandle, southern GA, SC, the NC mountains, and deep south TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 23

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and northern FL. Moderate Risk for southern FL and southeast GA. Low Risk for cucurbits in southwest GA, the FL panhandle, AL, southern MS, and deep south and east-central TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, September 24

Moderate Risk for southern FL, the western FL panhandle, southwest AL, and southern MS. Low Risk for cucurbits in deep south and east-central TX, southeast AL, southwest GA, central and northern FL, and the eastern panhandle. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, September 20, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 20 September: New report from NH. CDM has been confirmed in Stafford County, NH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 15, 18 September: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Mostly dry; showers possible some areas. High pressure lies over the east-central / eastern U.S. with fronts to the west over the Plains and to the north over the northern U.S. / southern Canada. Expect mostly dry weather. There's a chance of showers near the fronts as they lift north, and also in the South (mainly Tuesday). Tropical Storm Jose, now off the north-Atlantic coast, will continue to weaken and linger there. A few showers are possible in southern New England today. Highs in the 70s to 90s, lows mostly 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in a few areas scattered over eastern North America. Transport events during midweek tend to move near their respective sources plus a few other directions, depending on location. Conditions will be unfavorable, slightly favorable, or mixed and changing day to day. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, September 20

Moderate Risk in southern FL, southwest MS, the FL panhandle, far southern AL, southwest GA, eastern OH, southeast NH, eastern MA, and RI. Low Risk for cucurbits in eastern CT, central MA, southern OH, western WV, northern and central AL, and deep south and eastern TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, September 21

Moderate Risk for southern AL, southern GA, the FL panhandle, southern FL, and southern SC. Low Risk for cucurbits in deep south and east-central TX, central and southern MS, central AL, northern and central GA, SC except the south, NC, southwest VA, and central MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, September 18, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 15, 18 September: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 13 September: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Increasingly wet north-Atlantic coast; mostly dry remainder of East; showers Midwest / MS Valley. Outer rainbands of Jose, moving north offshore, will cause showers along the northern coast today and rain in the Northeast on Tuesday. A wavy front will bring showers to other portions of the North each day. Mostly dry weather elsewhere, though showers are possible in parts of the South, mainly toward the MS Valley region. Highs in the 70s to 90s, lows mostly 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in parts of the North. The more favorable conditions will be found along the northern sections of the Atlantic coast and around the front in the North. Transport events exhibit a variety of directions each day. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, September 18

Moderate Risk in southwest MS / northeast LA, western KY, southern and eastern IN, western OH, far southeast MI, and far southern ON. Low Risk for cucurbits in western NY, western PA, far eastern OH, southern VT and NH, southern New England, Long Island, southeast NY, NJ, eastern PA, DE, eastern MD, eastern VA, northeast NC, southwest VA / northwest  NC, AL, far western FL panhandle, eastern MS, and near the TX sources. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, September 19

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern KY, western OH, eastern MD, DE, far eastern PA, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, southern New England, and far southern VT and NH. Moderate Risk for far southeast WI, far northern IL, southwest MI, northern IN, central OH, northeast KY, eastern PA, central MD, southwest IN, western KY, southwest MS, northern and western AL, southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in deep south and eastern TX, eastern AL, eastern OH, northwest PA, and far western NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 15, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 15 September: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 13 September: No new reports. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

A largely dry period. High pressure is firmly entrenched over eastern North America and will remain there through the weekend. Sunny to partly cloudy skies and dry weather are dominant. There will be some showers near the Gulf Coast, mainliy Friday and Saturday. Light rain may occur in portions of the mid-Atlantic / Northeast on one day or another (exiting remnants of HR Irma, some onshore flow, and Hurricane Jose getting closer, northeast of the Bahamas on Sunday). A cold front trying to move into the central U.S. on Saturday and Sunday will trigger some showers, also. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s, with a warming trend.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely near the Gulf Coast. Transport events tend to track near the source regions. The more favorable conditions will be found in the central Gulf Coast / lower Southeast regions. A few other areas, varying each day, will feature enough in the way of clouds and potential rainfall to produce Low to Moderate Risk.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 15

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and northern FL and the panhandle, southern AL, and southern GA. Moderate Risk in southern FL, east-central MD, eastern PA, central and northern NJ, southeast NY, southern New England, southern VT and NH. Low Risk for cucurbits in southwest NC, eastern NC, eastern VA, west-central and eastern MD, DE, southern NJ, and central PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 16

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, southern AL, and southwest GA. Moderate Risk for MS, central and northern AL, west-central and southeast GA, the FL peninsula, eastern PA, northern DE, NJ, and southeast NY. Low Risk for cucurbits in southwest VA / northwest NC, northeast NC, eastern VA, central MD, south-central PA, central MA, and northeast CT. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, September 17

Moderate Risk in southern FL and south-central PA. Low Risk for cucurbits in eastern PA, NJ, northern DE, northern MD, southwest VA, northwest NC, eastern NC, MS, AL, southwest GA, the FL panhandle, northern IN, western MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

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