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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, September 23, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 21 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in George County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 19 September: First report from IA. New reports from AL and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Johnson County, IA; Houston County, AL; and Beaufort County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Active weather. The main weather features are high pressure moving across southern Canada and 2 frontal systems that are wavering around / moving into eastern North America. The wettest weather occurs in an arc from the lower MS Valley northeastward into the mid-Atlantic. The driest will be in parts of the Southeast. Highs from the 60s to 80s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely from the central Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic. A late season period of active weather is producing favorable conditions for survivable transport and effective deposition of airborne spores in many areas. Transport events trend more toward the north and northeast as days pass and the weather features change orientation.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, September 23

HIGH Risk for western AL, MS, northeast LA, the western 1/2 of TN, KY, far southern OH, northern and central WV, far southern PA, southern NJ, MD, and DE. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southeast WV, southwest VA, eastern 1/2 of TN, far western NC, northwest and southwest GA, eastern AL, and the FL panhandle. Low Risk for central GA, western SC, western NC, central and eastern VA, central PA, and south-central OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, September 24

HIGH Risk for NJ, DE, MD, southern PA, WV, northern / central / southwest VA, southern OH, southern IN, KY, far southern OH, TN, far western NC, northern GA, AL, the FL panhandle, MS, and northeast LA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and southwest VA, and central and southern SC. Low Risk to cucurbits in northern SC, NC except the far west, southern VA, Long Island, CT, western MA, central and southern NY, northern PA, southern ON, central and northern OH, lower MI, central and northern IN, southern WI, eastern and northern IL, and eastenr IA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Tuesday, September 25

HIGH Risk for western and northern AL, MS, northeast LA, TN, KY, southern IN and OH, southwest VA, WV, southern PA, MD, and southern NJ. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in the FL panhandle, southeast AL, western and central GA, western SC and NC, central VA, and southern MD. Low Risk to cucurbits in southeast GA, central and eastern SC, central and eastern NC, southeast VA, New England except ME, central and northern NJ, NY, central and northern PA, southern ON, central and northern OH and IN, lower MI, northern and eastern IL, southern WI, and eastern IA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 21, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 21 September: New report from MS. CDM has been confirmed in George County, MS. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 19 September: First report from IA. New reports from AL and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Johnson County, IA; Houston County, AL; and Beaufort County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Changeable weather. A strong Low over southern ON anchors a cold front that extends into the southern Plains. Active weather follows the front as the northern end surges east, the southern end holds steady, and the middle section eventually repositions over the mid-Atlantic / TN Valley. Some areas will be wet both days (southern Ohio Valley), some dry (interior Southeast), but most will have one day of showers and another day of fair weather. Highs from the 70s to 90s dropping to the 60s to 80s. Lows in the 60s and 70s, dropping to the 40s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the lower/mid MS and Ohio Valleys. Transport events move to the east and northeast on Friday; they exhibit a variety of behaviors on Saturday. The most favorable conditions for epidemic spread will be found in an arc leading from the central Gulf Coast north and east toward the central Appalachians.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 21

HIGH Risk for central and eastern AL, and the FL panhandle. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in central and eastern TN, KY, southern IN, southern OH, WV, southwest VA, western MD, and southwest PA. Low Risk for northeast LA, northeast MS / northwest AL, northern SC, the western 1/2 of NC, western and northern VA, central MD, lower MI, northern IN and OH, southern ON, PA except the southwest, central and northern NJ, NY, Long Island, southern New England, VT, and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 22

HIGH Risk for northeast LA, eastern AR, northwest MS, western and north-central TN, far southeast MO, far southern IL/IN/OH, KY, extreme southwest VA, central and western WV. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in eastern LA, MS except the northwest, western and central AL, the western FL panhandle, south-central and eastern TN, western and central NC, and western and central VA. Low Risk to cucurbits in northeast NC, northern and eastern VA, DE, MD, northern WV, southern PA, and south-central OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, September 19, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 19 September: First report from IA. New reports from AL and SC. CDM has been confirmed in Johnson County, IA; Houston County, AL; and Beaufort County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 16 September: New report from PA. CDM has been confirmed in York County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

A drier period overall; scattered showers North and Gulf Coast. A couple of fronts are in the picture. One lies near the Gulf Coast, the other in the north-central / North. High pressure is in place otherwise. Largely dry weather prevails. Showers in the Great Lakes Wednesday expand toward the Northeast Thursday; daily showers fall near the Gulf Coast. A few showers are possible near the Appalachians. Warm with highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in some areas but less likely than recently. A relaxation of the recent very wet weather yields at least two days of more benign conditions for epidemic spread. Low levels of risk are present for sections of the North, Gulf Coast, and the Appalachians on one day or another.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, September 19

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southern GA, the FL panhandle, and most of southern AL. Low Risk near the LA source, far southern MS and nearby LA and AL, most of the southern and central Appalachians northwestward across northern WV / southwest PA into eastern and central OH, lower MI, far northern IN, northeast IL, southern 1/2 of WI, and eastern IA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, September 20

Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southeast AL / southwest GA, and the FL eastern panhandle. Low Risk to cucurbits in southern AL, the western panhandle, southern GA, western MA, NH, VT, far southern QE, NY except the southeast , northern PA, southern ON, northern OH and IN, lower MI, southern WI, and eastern IA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Sunday, September 16, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 16 September: New report from PA. CDM has been confirmed in York County, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 14 September: First reports from MS and LA. CDM has been confirmed in Lee County, MS; and Tensas County, LA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Hurricane Florence dominates the weather scene. Decaying Hurricane Florence, who has been crawling westward across northern SC, is moving a little faster today. She will reach the Appalachian Mountains, turn to the right, and accelerate northeast, exiting the Northeast coast on Tuesday. Heavy to tremendous rains will fall in NC to western VA today with plentiful rainfall in nearby areas. Lesser but still copious amouts of rain will occur in the Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic, and Northeast on Monday and Tuesday as Florence moves through these regions. A mixture of dry weather and scattered showers lingers along the East Coast on Tuesday. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in most of eastern North America. Conditions for survivable transport and depostion will be favorable in most of the transport events late this weekend into early this week. Almost all events will be heavily influenced by Hurricane Florence in terms of direction or sky conditions and rainfall.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Sunday, September 16

HIGH Risk in SC, NC, VA, southern and western MD, WV, eastern KY, eastern TN, and far northeast GA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in northern and central GA, northeast AL, central TN, central KY, southeast IN, and central and southern OH. Low Risk for southern PA, southern NJ, DE, and northeast MD. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Monday, September 17

HIGH Risk in central and southern VT and NH, southern New England, NY except the far north, all of the Mid-Atlantic region, OH except the northwest, eastern KY, central and eastern SC, and southeast GA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in southwest NC, eastern and north-central TN, central KY, eastern IN, northwest OH, southeast MI, southern ON, far northern NY, northern VT and NH. Low Risk to cucurbits in western SC, and northeast / central / southwest GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Tuesday, September 18

HIGH Risk in far southeast GA, the coastal plains of SC, eastern and central NC, MD, DE, eastern PA, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, southern New England, southern VT and NH, and southwest ME. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in south-central NY, central PA, WV, southwest VA, central and western NC except the far southwest, central SC, and southeast GA. Low Risk to cucurbits in the FL panhandle, far southeast AL, southwest to northeast GA, western SC, far southwest NC, southern WI, northern IL and IN, northwest OH, and central and southern MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 14, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 14 September: First reports from MS and LA. CDM has been confirmed in Lee County, MS; and Tensas County, LA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. **

*** Epidemic Update - 12 September: First report from NH; New report from OH. CDM has been confirmed in Hillsborough County, NH; and Monroe County, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern United States / southern Canada

Hurricane Florence makes landfall; highly active weather lower mid-Atlantic / upper Southeast. Hurricane Florence made landfall this morning on the southern NC coast. She is forecast to drift slowly southwest and west over the next several days. Very heavy rain will fall from southern VA through the Carolinas, with showers expected in the surrounding areas. High pressure keeps the northern areas mostly dry. Highs from the 70s to 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the mid-Atlantic region. The most important transport events are governed by the circulation around Hurricane Florence. A few others may lead to short-range epidemic spread.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 14

HIGH Risk in southern MD, VA except the southwest, NC except the southwest, and central and eastern SC. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in far southern NJ, DE, northern and central MD, far northern VA, the southeast 1/2 of WV, southwest VA, southwest NC,  and western SC. Low Risk for central PA, southeast KY, northeast TN, northeast GA, and near the LA source. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 15

HIGH Risk in all but northern VA, southeast WV, northesat TN, NC, SC, and far eastern GA. Moderate Risk to cucurbits in MD, northern VA, WV except the southeast, eastern KY, eastern TN, and most of northern and eastern GA. Low Risk to cucurbits near the LA source, western NY, northwest PA, and nearby southern ON. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

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