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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, May 21, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 16 May: First report from U.S. in 2018. CDM has been confirmed in Hillsborough and Manatee Counties, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast U.S.

Active weather continues. A muggy, summer-like air mass lies over the region, reinforced by a Bermuda High offshore. Stationary fronts are to the north and west. Scattered to numerous showers and/or storms will occur in nearly all locations, with skies otherwise partly to mostly cloudy. Highs in the 80s, lows in the upper 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the lower Southeast. Conditions remain quite favorable for epidemic spread. Transport will be more toward the Gulf Coast early this week.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, May 21

Transport events move northwest. HIGH Risk to cucurbits in west-central FL. Moderate Risk for coastal northern FL and the eastern panhandle. Low Risk in northern FL, southwest GA, southeast AL, and the western panhandle. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherrwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, May 22

Transport events move northwest. HIGH Risk to cucurbits in west-central FL. Moderate Risk for the FL panhandle and far southern AL. Low Risk in western northern FL, southwest GA, and southeast AL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, May 18, 2018

 

*** Epidemic Update - 16 May: First report from U.S. in 2018. CDM has been confirmed in Hillsborough and Manatee Counties, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast U.S.

Highly unsettled weather. A tropical-style weather regine remains in place through the weekend. High pressure is centered off the coast with a stationary front still situated to the north and west. Expect variably to mostly cloudy skies. Shower or storms may occur at any time in most areas, will be more prevalent during the midday to mid-evening hours, and the rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the 80s, lows in the upper 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the lower Southeast. Conditions are quite favorable for epidemic spread. Transport events move at a slow to moderate pace. A large degree of washout is expected near the sources.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, May 18

Transport events track NNE. HIGH Risk to cucurbits in central and northern FL. Low Risk in southeast GA and southern SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherrwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, May 19

Transport events move north. HIGH Risk to cucurbits in central and northern FL. Low Risk in the FL eastern panhandle and southern GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, May 20

Transport events track more NNW. HIGH Risk to cucurbits in central and northern FL and extreme southern GA. Low Risk in most of southern GA, southeast AL, and the FL panhandle. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, May 16, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 16 May: First report from U.S. in 2018. CDM has been confirmed in Hillsborough and Manatee Counties, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast U.S.

Prolonged period of wet weather. A cut-off low pressure area aloft, now over the northeastern Gulf / FL panhandle, will drift slowly north over the next several days. sthe surface, weak low pressure areas and associated troughs lie over the Southeast and a stationary front lies to the north and west. Tropical moisture is streaming into the region. Skies will be mostly cloudy with scattered to widespread and storms each day. Highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s and 70s. This pattern will persist into next week.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the lower Southeast. Wednesday's transport event moves northeast, Thursday's slowly and more ENE. Conditions are quite favorable for epidemic spread.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, May 16

HIGH Risk to cucurbits in central and northern FL and far southeast GA near the FL border. Moderate Risk in southeast GA and southern SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherrwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, May 17

HIGH Risk to cucurbits in central FL. Low Risk for northern FL and southeast GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2018

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, November 3, 2017
 

*** Forecast Note - 3 November: Forecasts for the 2017 growing season have ended. Please let us know if you have any questions or comments! ***
 

*** Epidemic Update - 18 October: First report from IL. CDM has been confirmed in Kankakee County, IL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 13 October: First reports from TN and MO. CDM has been confirmed in Cocke County, TN; and Cole County, MO. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern United States

Variable weather with scattered showers some areas. A frontal system draped over the mid-South provides the focus for some showers, mainly in central sections of the mainland South. Expect more shower activity Friday and Saturday compared to Sunday. Warm most locations, with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in a few areas. Conditions are such that some localized to short-range epidemic spread is possible in parts of the South each day. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, November 3

Low Risk for cucurbits in AL, most of MS, and near the east-TX sources. Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, November 4

Low Risk for cucurbits in southern FL, MS, AL, and northwest GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Saturday, November 5

Low Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, November 1, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 18 October: First report from IL. CDM has been confirmed in Kankakee County, IL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 13 October: First reports from TN and MO. CDM has been confirmed in Cocke County, TN; and Cole County, MO. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Unsettled east-central and north; dry elsewhere. A front shifts and meanders in the central U.S. while high pressure sits along the East Coast. Showers are probable near the front, mainly west of the mountains and in the North. Much of the Southeast and mid-Atlancitc are dry.  Highs in the 40s to 80s, lows from the 30s to 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Some disease developmemt is possible in the lower MS Valley. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, November 1

Moderate Risk for western MS, southeast AR, and far northeast LA. Low Risk for cucurbits in central and western AL, and eastern MS. Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, November 2

Low Risk for cucurbits in most of MS and in the northern 1/2 of AL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

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