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Cucurbit Downy Mildew Epidemic History for 2017

March 25
New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed on cucumber and watermelon in a 20 acre commercial field in Manatee County, FL. Incidence and severity are 100% / 15% on the cucumber, 25% / 5% on the watermelon. Estimated date of first symptoms is March 17.

March 7
New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed on cucumber, acorn and butternut squash, cantaloupe, giant pumpkin, and watermelon in the sentinel plot in Miami-Dade County, FL. Incidence and severity vary; incidence is highest in cucumber, Big Max pumpkin, and butternut squash. Severities are low. Estimated date of first symptoms is March 3.

February 17
First report from the U.S. (FL). CDM has been confirmed on cucumber in a greenhouse in Citrus County, FL. Incidence is 100%, severity is 40%. Estimated date of first symptoms is January 10.

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, April 26, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 27 March: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Manatee County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 8 March: First reports from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Citrus County and Miami-Dade County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Mostly dry. High pressure lies over the South with the center offshore. Sunny to partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures will be present through midweek. Dry weather is expected for most locations. A cold front nears the region on Thursday; scattered showers are forecast for some mainland areas. Highs in the 80s to low 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Conditions do not support survivable transport and deposition into new areas. Transport events track to the northeast and off the coast at a moderate pace. A shower in portions of southern FL may generate some localized / short-range epidemic spread.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, April 26

Low Risk for southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, April 27

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, April 24, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 27 March: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Manatee County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 8 March: First reports from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Citrus County and Miami-Dade County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Showers in FL today; dry weather returns Tuesday. The cold front associated with a vigorous weather system in the Southeast sweeps through FL today, bringing clouds and perhaps a few showers. High pressure and dry weather fills in behind the front.  Highs in the 70s and 80s today warming to 80s tomorrow. Lows in the 50s and 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Short-range epidemic spread possible. Transport events, in the wake of the nearby and departing cold front, move rapidly east today and slower (but still briskly) east on Tuesday. Partly to variably cloudy skies and isolated showers support Low risks today for portions of the peninsula. Unfavorable conditions dominate for Tuesday's events.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, April 24

Low Risk for east-central and southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, April 25

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, April 21, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 27 March: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Manatee County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 8 March: First reports from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Citrus County and Miami-Dade County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

Increasingly unsettled. Sunny to partly cloudy and dry on Friday. Rain moves into the FL peninsula on Saturday due to a disturbance approaching from the south. Active weather impacts the rest of the region Saturday night and Sunday, as a potent low pressure / frontal system developing in the mid-South gathers itself and moves into the Southeast. Highs in the 80s, lows mostly in the 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible over the weekend. Friday's transport events are benign. Saturday's events, moving west and northwest, should not impact other regions. However, scattered showers over portions of the peninsula should provide enough favorability to produce some localized spread. Sunday's risks, though like Saturday's tempered by antecedent dry weather, will reach into the Moderate category for the southern FL peninsula with lower risk extending farther north / northeast. Transport events Sunday track northeast and east.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, April 21

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, April 22

Low Risk for southern and west-central FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, April 23

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern and south-central FL. Low Risk for north-central and northern FL and southeast GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, April 19, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 27 March: New report from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Manatee County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 8 March: First reports from FL. CDM has been confirmed in Citrus County and Miami-Dade County, FL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: lower Southeast U.S.

More dry weather. High pressure is still in control. Expect dry weather under sunny to partly cloudy skies. A stray shower may occur in parts of FL. Clouds and some rain in northern GA / Carolinas should remain to the north as the system responsible drifts east and northeast. Highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s to low 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Some clouds and a slight chance of showers may support localized disease development near the southern FL source. Otherwise, conditions are unfavorable for epidemic spread through midweek. Transport events move west / WNW..

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, April 19

Low Risk for southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, April 20

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

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