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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, June 21, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 21 June: First report from AL. CDM has been confirmed in Baldwin County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 19 June: New reports from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Sampson and Franklin Counties, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Very unsettled weather. The disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico became Tropical Storm Cindy on Tuesday. Cindy will move ashore near the tX / LA border tonight. A dissipating statioary front lies over the northern sections of the South, and high pressure sits to the east. Very heavy rain will fall from east TX to AL. Scattered to numerous showers are anticipated for the south-Atlantic states. Mostly dry weather west of east TX. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows mostly 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the southern U.S. east of the MS River. Transport events on Wednesday move northwest from FL and GA (influenced by Cindy), near-source and east from the Carolinas. Favorable to highly favorable conditions are occuring over much of the South. Although there will be appreciable washout , transport and deposition into the heart of the lower MS Valley may occur. Thursday's transport events will still be influenced by the circulation around Cindy, but the directions will be more northerly. Epidemic spread will be quite likely in the Southeast and possible for many areas to the north and/or west.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, June 21

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL, eastern MS, AL, GA, central and eastern SC, and eastern NC. Low Risk in western TN, eastern AR, northeast LA, and western MS. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, June 22

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in eastern MS, most of AL, central and northern GA, far southwest NC, and the Savannah River counties of SC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southeast VA, east-central and eastern NC, almost all of SC, southern GA, FL, and southeast AL. Low Risk for northern MS, far northern AL, TN, southern KY, southwest VA, west-central and western NC, and part of southeast TX. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, June 19, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 19 June: New reports from NC. CDM has been confirmed in Sampson and Franklin Counties, NC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 16 June: New reports from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Lee and Decatur Counties, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Active weather. A warm, humid air mass remains in place ahead of a cold front that entered the northern sections over the weekend. Partly to mostly cloudy skies and scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast for most areas early this week, as the front moves farther into the region and turns stationary. A tropical system is expected to develop in the Gulf of Mexico late today or Tuesday. This disturbance will likely enhance rainfall near the Gulf Coast. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread again likely in the East. Favorable weather for epidemic spread persists along much of the East Coast, especially in the southern areas where the front will stall and the tropical disturbance has its impacts. Monday's transport events curve north to northeast. The cold front will have not yet passed the coast, so these events move through the mid-Atlantic and into southern New England. Tuesday's events are more heavily influenced by the tropical disturbance in the Gulf. The FL, GA, and southern SC events track northwest to west. The others move near source and ENE. A shower near the southeast TX source may give rise to some disease development in that area today.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, June 19

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL except the western panhandle, southern GA, southern and eastern SC, eastern NC, eastern VA, eastern MD, DE, and southern NJ. Moderate Risk for southeast AL, central GA, northern and western SC, and central NC. Low Risk in central and northern NJ, Long Island, CT, RI, central and eastern MA, and near the southeast TX source. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, June 20

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and northern FL, the FL panhandle, southeast AL, central and southern GA, southern and eastern SC, and eastern NC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southern FL. Low Risk in southeast VA, southeast MD, central and western NC, northern and western SC, southern TN, northern GA, northern and western AL, MS, and southeast LA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, June 16, 2017
 

*** Forecast Note - 14 June: The CDM website will be unavailable for use on Saturday, June 17 from at least 7am to 7pm. This is due to a scheduled power outage at the NC State Climate Office, who hosts our site. ***
 

*** Epidemic Update - 16 June: New reports from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Lee and Decatur Counties, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 14 June: New reports from SC, NC, and TX. CDM has been confirmed in Charleston County, SC; Wilson and Lenoir Counties, NC; and Brazos County, TX. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Active weather eastern half; mostly dry west of the MS River. Partly to mostly cloudy skies and mainly late day showers and storms are forecast for areas east of the MS River. Showers will be most numerous in the Carolinas / GA / FL Friday and Saturday. On Sunday, rain will be focused toward the northern sections (OK / AR / TN Valley) ahead of a cold front. Areas west of the MS will be mostly dry. Hot with highs in the 90s with some 100s TX / OK. Lows in the 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely along the eastern Seaboard. For the first time this season, epidemic spread along the entirety of the eastern U.S. is a distinct possibility. Transport events are moving generally northeast from the sources in the Southeast / NC. Conditions are mixed to favorable each day during these events. Risk predictions are elevated for most eastern states, and are dependent on the day-to-day weather and the degree of expected washout during the various transport events. The TX events, experiencing unfavorable conditions, pose little to no threat.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, June 16

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL except the western panhandle, far southeast AL, the southern half of GA, the central and eastern Carolinas, and southeast VA. Low Risk in east-central VA, southern MD, and DE. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, June 17

HIGH Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula, central and eastern NC, central and eastern VA, southern MD, and southern DE. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in far northern FL, the eastern panhandle, central and southern GA, central and eastern SC and the neighboring border counties of NC. Low Risk in northern MD, northern DE, NJ, and eastern PA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, June 18

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL. Moderate Risk for northern FL, the eastern panhandle, the southern half of GA, central and eastern sections of SC and NC, eastern VA, central and eastern MD, DE, southeast PA, and central and southern NJ. Low Risk for cucurbits in northeast PA, northern NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, southern New England (MA / CT / RI), and southern VT and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, June 14, 2017
 

*** Forecast Note - 14 June: The CDM website will be unavailable for use on Saturday, June 17 from at least 7am to 7pm. This is due to a scheduled power outage at the NC State Climate Office, who hosts our site. ***
 

*** Epidemic Update - 14 June: New reports from SC, NC, and TX. CDM has been confirmed in Charleston County, SC; Wilson and Lenoir Counties, NC; and Brazos County, TX. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 7 June: First reports from NC and SC. New reports from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Duplin County, NC; Horry County, SC; and Tift and Tattnall Counties, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Unsettled weather most areas. The current situation is common summertime weather: sunny to partly cloudy skies and a chance of mainly afternoon and evening showers or storms in many locations. Showers will be more numerous toward the eastern sections. Many areas west of the MS River will be dry. Hot for mid-June with highs mostly in the 90s, lows mostly 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast and lower mid-Atlantic. The environment supports survivable transport and deposition of airborne spores from the sources along the southern East Coast of the United States. Transport events are moving near-source and/or to the ENE / northeast from these outbreaks. The TX transport events are associated with unfavorable conditions during mid-week. Conditions will remain generally favorable for epidemic spread in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic regions through at least the upcoming weekend.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, June 14

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL. Moderate Risk for northern FL, southern GA, and southern SC. Low Risk in eastern SC and eastern NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Wednesday, June 15

HIGH Risk for cucurbits on the FL peninsula, northeast SC, eastern NC, and southeast VA. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, southern GA, and southern SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, June 12, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 7 June: First reports from NC and SC. New reports from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Duplin County, NC; Horry County, SC; and Tift and Tattnall Counties, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 15 May: First report from GA. CDM has been confirmed in Echols County, GA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern U.S.

Showers possible most areas. A typical summer situation is in place ... with high pressure over the region, sunny to partly cloudy skies, and PM showers or storms for some sections. The best chances of rain and greatest amounts occur near the Gulf Coast / FL. TX / OK, the Carolinas, and some interior sections will remain largely dry. Hot with highs in the 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast. Conditions surrounding the transport events out of FL and GA are favorable for epidemic spread. Events move west, slower on Tuesday than Monday. Unfavorable conditions occur for the events out of TX and the Carolinas.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, June 12

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern GA; southern, western, and northen FL; and the eastern FL panhandle. Moderate Risk for eastern FL, the western panhandle, and southeast AL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, June 13

HIGH Risk for the southern 1/2 of GA and FL except the western panhandle. Low Risk for cucurbits in the western panhandle and southeast AL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

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