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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, July 22, 2019



*** Epidemic Update - 20 July: New reports from SC and AL. CDM has been confirmed in Horry County, SC; and Escambia County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 18 July: New report from NJ. CDM has been confirmed in Gloucester County, NJ. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***
 

Regional Weather: Eastern U.S.

Active, transitional period. A significant change in the upper-level pattern will drive an unseasonably strong frontal system through the eastern U.S. over the next several days. Clouds, showers, and rain will impact the Northeast and upper mid-Atlantic on Monday, all the Eastern states on Tuesday, and the Southeast on Wednesday. High pressure from Canada builds in after the front passes accompanied by cooler, drier weather. Hot temperatures with highs / lows in the 90s/70s drop dramatically behind the front to 70s-80s / 50s-60s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely. On Monday and Tuesday ... transport events track east or northeast. Favorable conditions progress south and east with the front. The greatest impacts will be on Tuesday when growing areas from New England to FL will be at High Risk. On Wednesday ... many events move south / southwest as the winds shift behind the front. The more favorable weather is confined to the Southeast.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, July 22

HIGH Risk in the FL panhandle, southwest GA, and southern AL. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central AL, west-central GA, Long Island, CT, RI, MA, and southern NH. Low Risk on the FL peninsula, north-central and eastern GA, southern and eastern SC, eastern NC and VA, southern and eastern MD, DE, southeast PA, NJ, and southeast NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, July 23

HIGH Risk in central and southern AL, the FL panhandle, southern 1/2 GA, eastern SC and NC, southeast VA, eastern MD, DE, central and southern NJ, and southeast MA. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in northern FL. Low risk for northern NJ, Long Island, southern CT, RI, and central and southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Wednesday, July 24

HIGH Risk in the eastern FL panhandle and southern GA. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in northern FL and eastern SC. Low risk for central and southern FL, the western panhandle, south-central GA, eastern NC, and southeast VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Saturday, July 20, 2019



*** Epidemic Update - 20 July: New reports from SC and AL. CDM has been confirmed in Horry County, SC; and Escambia County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 18 July: New report from NJ. CDM has been confirmed in Gloucester County, NJ. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***
 

Regional Weather: Eastern U.S.

Very hot and mostly dry. Stifling summer weather has a firm hold and reaches its peak this weekend. Sunny skies and high heat dominate. Showers will be isolated most areas. The better chance of showers will be toward AL / MS / TN. Very hot with highs in the mid-90s and higher, lows in the 70s to low 80s. A pattern change coming next week brings wetter and cooler weather.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions are expected for some events originating in the Southeast. Unfavorable to very unfavorable conditions occur for the others. Long-range transport and deposition are improbable.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Saturday, July 20

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in most of central and southern AL, western GA, and the FL panhandle. Low Risk on the FL peninsula and in a broad area of southeastern GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Sunday, July 21

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in most of central and southern AL, west-central GA, and the FL western panhandle. Low risk for FL except the western panhandle, far southeastern AL, and south-central and southwestern GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Thursday, July 18, 2019


*** Epidemic Update - 18 July: New report from NJ. CDM has been confirmed in Gloucester County, NJ. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 16 July: First report from MA. CDM has been confirmed in Barnstable County, MA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern U.S.

Hot and generally dry; wet Northeast on Thursday. Strong high pressure at multiple levels drives the weather, producing a hot and mostly dry environment. The leftover circulation from Barry travels east along a front draped from the Great Lakes into the Northeast. There will be a better chance of rain there (on Thursday) and in varying areas of the Southeast. Hot with highs / lows well into the 90s / 70s, with some cooler readings in New England.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the northern coastal states, possible elsewhere. Sweltering mid-summer weather has been making its presence felt. High heat is prevalent and precipitation has been quite variable. Favorable conditions occur Thursday in the Northeast as the remnants of Barry move through and a front wavers around the region. Conditions during other transport events range from unfavorable to mixed. Most transport events move east to northeast the next two days.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Thursday, July 18

HIGH Risk for DE, east-central MD, southeast PA, NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, and southern New England. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in east-central AL, the eastern FL panhandle, southern GA, eastern SC, eastern NC, southeast VA, and southern MD. Low Risk on the FL peninsula. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Friday, July 19

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in central and eastern AL, southern and central GA, southern and eastern SC, and far southeast NC. Low risk for the FL peninsula and east-central and eastern NC except for the far southeast. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Tuesday, July 16, 2019


*** Epidemic Update - 16 July: First report from MA. CDM has been confirmed in Barnstable County, MA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 11 July: New reports from VA. CDM has been confirmed in Accomack and Chesterfield Counties, VA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Hot mid-summer weather with showers some areas. Post-Tropical Storm Barry is moving through the MS Valley / Ohio Valley / mid-Atlantic during midweek. Barry plus some smaller-scale surface features serve to kick off some showers in the mid-Atlantic and parts of the Southeast. High pressure is otherwise in control of the weather. The wettest weather from Barry should hold along and west of the mountains. Hot with highs / lows well into the 90s / 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Possible epidemic spread, mostly near the known sources. Transport events move near-source and east to northeast today and Wednesday. Conditions during the events lean to the unfavorable / slightly favorable side.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Tuesday, July 16

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in eastern NC and southeast VA. Low Risk in western FL, the eastern panhandle, western GA, eastern AL, eastern SC, eastern MD, DE, NJ, Long Island, CT, RI, and southeast MA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Wednesday, July 17

Moderate Risk for cucurbits in far northern FL, the eastern panhandle, far southern GA, DE, east-central MD, NJ, Long Island, southern CT and RI, and southeast MALow risk for the FL peninsula, east-central AL, south-central GA, the coastal plains of SC and NC, southeast VA, and southern MD. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Saturday, July 13, 2019


*** Epidemic Update - 11 July: New reports from VA. CDM has been confirmed in Accomack and Chesterfield Counties, VA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 8 July: First report from NJ. CDM has been confirmed in Salem County, NJ. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southeast / mid-Atlantic U.S.

Tropical Storm Barry soaks the MS Valley. Tropical storm Barry makes landfall on the central LA coast this morning and treks through LA and AR during the next 3 days. Very heavy rain will occur in the lower and mid MS Valley region. Meanwhile, numerous showers fall today along and south of a dying front in the Carolinas / TN Valley. Largely dry in most of the mid-Atlantic. Some showers are expected in the Southeast in various areas Sunday and Monday. Hot; highs in the 90s, lows in the upper 60s and 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast. Barry's strength and track are such that it is influencing the transport events out of AL much more so than those coming out of the other sources, which are more strongly guided by high pressure centered near or just east of FL. Conditions are favorable today near the dying front and in the western Southeast. Conditions remain favorable in the western Southeast Sunday and Monday, vary elsewhere in the Southeast, and will be unfavorable for the majority of the events in the mid-Atlantic. There is potential for epidemic spread into MS / TN / western Carolinas if any airborne spores escape washout near the AL / southwest GA sources.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Saturday, July 13

HIGH Risk in northern and central AL, central and northern GA except the far north, central and eastern SC, and southeast NC. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in the eastern panhandle, far southeast AL, southern GA and SC, and northeast NC. Low Risk in southwest FL, southeast TN, south-central and southwest NC, and northwest SC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Sunday, July 14

HIGH Risk in the FL panhandle, western GA, and AL except the southwest. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in east-central and southeast GA, and southern SCLow risk for the FL peninsula, far southeast GA, east-central and northern MS, western and south-central TN, northeast SC, and southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Monday, July 15

HIGH Risk in central and northern AL and northwest GA. Moderate Risk for cucurbits in southeast AL, the eastern FL panhandle, and central and southern GALow risk for the FL peninsula, east-central and eastern TN, southwest NC, western SC, northeast GA, eastern NC, and southeast VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

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