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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, September 16, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 13 September: New report from AR. CDM has been confirmed in White County, AR. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 9 September: First report from MS; New reports from KY, NY, and WI. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS; Lewis and Kenton Counties, KY; Renesselaer County, NY; and Buffalo County, WI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Dry most regions. High pressure in eastern Canada / northeastern U.S. pushes a front southward through the mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley early this week. Scattered showers occur near the front but widespread rain is not forecast. The same theme continues on Wednesday as that High further asserts itself. Hurricane Humberto, which did not draw as close to FL previously anticipated, has little influence as it pulls away to the east. There will also be showers in the western Gulf and in the north-central U.S (on Wednesday). Highs ranging from the 60s to 90s, lows from the 40s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in some areas. Unfavorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition are expected for a large majority of Monday's to Wednesday's transport events. Some epidemic spread may occur during those events near and ahead of the front moving through the eastern U.S., plus a few others.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, September 16

Moderate Risk for southern FL, central and southeast NY, central and eastern PA, central and northern NJ, and far western MA and CT. Low Risk for cucurbits western and central MA, CT except the far west, RI, Long Island, southern NJ, DE, northeast MD, southwest OH, and central and eastern KY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, September 17

Moderate Risk in northeast SC, NC except the west-central section, eastern VA, southern MD. Low risk for cucurbits in southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Wednesday, September 18

Moderate Risk in northern FL and southeast GA, and the NC mountains. Low risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL, the eastern panhandle, and central and western WI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 13, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 13 September: New report from AR. CDM has been confirmed in White County, AR. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 9 September: First report from MS; New reports from KY, NY, and WI. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS; Lewis and Kenton Counties, KY; Renesselaer County, NY; and Buffalo County, WI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Hot and unsettled Friday and Saturday; quiter weather Sunday except the Southeast. Scattered to sometimes numerous showers will fall Friday and Saturday as two late-summer frontal systems move through the central and eastern U.S.. Expect drier weather most areas on Sunday. However, an approaching tropical disturbance (and likely Tropical Storm) brings rain and showers to the lower Southeast late Saturday and Sunday. Very warm with highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s, with some 70s/50s North.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely parts of the North and East Friday and Saturday, Southeast on Sunday. A wide range of risks to cucurbits will be found in the northern and eastern regions Friday and Saturday, with the highest risks in the Great Lakes Friday shifting toward the Northeast Saturday. The tropical system will impact eastern locations of the lower Southeast on Sunday. Unfavorable conditions dominate elsewhere that day.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 13

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and southern lower MI. Moderate Risk for far southeast MI, southern ON, northern and eastern OH, southwest VA, western and southeast NC, northern SC. Low Risk for cucurbits in the FL peninsula, western SC, northeast GA, eastern TN, southeast and northern KY, far southwest VA, central and northeast NC, central and eastern VA, eastern WV, central and western MD, central and western PA, southwest OH, northern MI, and central and southern WI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 14

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in the NC mountains and far northeast TN, central and eastern PA except the southeast, central and northern NJ, central and eastern NY, Long Island, southern New England, and central and southern VT and NH. Moderate Risk in southeast PA, southern NJ, northern MD, DE, eastern TN, west-central and southern NC, and northern SC. Low risk for cucurbits in FL, southeast AL, central and southern GA, west-central and southern SC, northeast NC, central and eastern VA, southern MD, southern WI, northern NY, northern VT and NH, western ME, and nearby southern QE. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, September 15

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, southeast GA, and southern SC. Moderate Risk in the eastern FL panhandle, southwest / central / northern GA, SC except the southern areas, NC, southeast VA. Low risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL and the western panhandle, northeast LA, southern MS, central and southern AL, central VA, southern MD and DE, and western and central MI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, September 11, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 9 September: First report from MS; New reports from KY, NY, and WI. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS; Lewis and Kenton Counties, KY; Renesselaer County, NY; and Buffalo County, WI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 6 September: First report from NH; New reports from OH and PA. CDM has been confirmed in Strafford County, NH; Fulton, Seneca, and Sandusky Counties, OH; and Juniata and Mifflin Counties, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Hot; wetter weather North-central; dry weather elsewhere with scattered showers some areas. High pressure dominates the weather in a hot and generally dry pattern for late summer. A front stretched over the northern areas is a focus for wetter weather as is another moving into the centrlal U.S on Thursday. Scattered showers are possible in the east-central and eastern U.S. while most of the South is dry. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s. A few cooler readings in the North.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in and around WI / MI. The upper Midwest / southwestern Great Lakes sections are those that will see the most potential rainfall during midweek. Thus, the higher risks are clustered there. Much of the rest of the central and eastern U.S. / southern Canada will be dry, though scattered showers will fall in some locations each day, more of those in the mid-Atlantic than elsewhere. The front moving into the central U.S. on Thursday will have an effect on epidemic spread this weekend as it moves east.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, September 11

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southwest WI, nearby IA and MN, and central and southern MI. Moderate Risk for northern AL, south-central and eastern TN, far northern GA, western NC, northern OH, far northwest PA, and southern ON. Low Risk for cucurbits in central WI, central and eastern PA and NY, NJ, Long Island, CT, RI, central and western MA, southern VT, southwest NH, central and southwest MS,northern FL, and far western panhandle of FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, September 12

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southwest WI and nearby IA and MN. Moderate Risk in central and northeast MO, southeast WI, northern IL and IN, central and southern MI, northern OH, the NC mountains, central and northern VA, MD, DE, NJ, central and eastern PA, central and southeast NY, Long Island, and western MA and CT. Low risk for cucurbits in southeast VA, northeast NC, the FL peninsula, eastern TN, eastern MI, western IL, southeast IA, and southeast MN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, September 9, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 9 September: First report from MS; New reports from KY, NY, and WI. CDM has been confirmed in Copiah County, MS; Lewis and Kenton Counties, KY; Renesselaer County, NY; and Buffalo County, WI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 6 September: First report from NH; New reports from OH and PA. CDM has been confirmed in Strafford County, NH; Fulton, Seneca, and Sandusky Counties, OH; and Juniata and Mifflin Counties, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Active weather North; variable weather elsewhere. A front snakes from the lower mid-Atlantic sections through the South and northwest into the Plains. Rains and showers occur across the North as the Plains end of the front shifts east. Scattered summertime showers are possible in parts of the East and South each day. Dry weather is expected otherwise. Warm with highs in the 70s to 90s, lows in the 50s to 70s, with a warming trend.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely parts of the Great Lakes. The western Great Lakes is where the more active weather will be early this week. Conditions will be less favorable and change day-to-day for the rest of eastern North America. Some regions will remain dry, others will have a chance of showers on one day or another. Transport events exhibit multiple directions. Most opportunity for epidemic spread occurs near the known sources.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, September 9

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in western WI and southeast MN. Moderate Risk for central and northern lower MI, southern and central AL, southwest MS, northeast LA, the western FL panhandle, south-central GA, eastern SC and NC, and central and southeast VA. Low Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL and the eastern panhandle, southern GA, northern and far eastern VA, DE, central and eastern MD, central and eastern PA, NJ, southern lower MI, the eastern UP, eastern WI, and nearby IL and IN. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, September 10

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central MI. Moderate Risk in southern MI, the NC mountains, western GA, southeast AL, and the eastern FL panhandle. Low risk for cucurbits in the western FL panhandle, Al except the southeast, eastern GA, SC except the north-central areas, southeast NC, central and southern WI, southern ON, and northwest OH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, September 6, 2019

 

*** Epidemic Update - 6 September: First report from NH; New reports from OH and PA. CDM has been confirmed in Strafford County, NH; Fulton, Seneca, and Sandusky Counties, OH; and Juniata and Mifflin Counties, PA. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 4 September: New reports from MI. CDM has been confirmed in Clinton, Tuscola, St. Joseph, and Monroe Counties, MI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Central & Eastern U.S. / southern Canada

Dorian moves up the north-Atlantic coast; showers parts of the northern and central U.S.; mostly dry elsewhere. Hurricane Dorian is now over the NC Outer Banks. Heavy rains will occur in coastal areas of the mid-Atlantic and Noftheast as Dorian accelerates to the norheast. Scattered showers are expected in some northern areas today and Saturday and in the Midwest on Sunday. High pressure, sunny to partly cloudy skies, and dry weather are anticipated elsewhere and behind the departing hurricane. Highs in the 60s to 70s North to 90s and 100s South. Lows from the 50s to 70s.

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely on Friday on the North Atlantic coast. Epidemic spread is also probable in the Great Lakes on Friday. For most transport events Friday through Sunday, however, conditions will be unfavorable for survivable transport and deposition as hot and dry conditions permeate the southern and many central areas.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, September 6

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northeast NC, southeast VA, eastern MD, DE, southern and central NJ, Long Island, southeast CT, RI, southeast MA, and central MI. Moderate Risk for southern and eastern MI, northwest OH, central MD, eastern PA, northern NJ, southeast NY, far southern VT and NH, MA except the southeast, and CT except the southeast. Low Risk for cucurbits in southern ON, northeast OH, and southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, September 7

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southeast MA. Moderate Risk in central NY. Low risk for cucurbits in parts of eastern OH, central and eastern MA except the southeast, eastern CT, and RI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, September 8

Moderate Risk in northwest MO, northeast KS, southwest WI, northeast IA, and far southeast MN. Low risk for cucurbits in southeast GA, southern SC, southwest MI, far northern IN, far northern IL, southeast WI. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2019

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