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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, August 21, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 21 AugustFirst report from CTnew reports from IN and OHCDM has been confirmed in Middlesex County, VT; LaPorte County, IN; and Harrison and Licking Counties, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 18 August: First report from Quebec; new reports from KY and AL. CDM has been confirmed in Les Maskoutains County, QE; Breathitt County, KY; and Blount County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Active North and Central; showers South; drier in between. The two main weather features are high pressure sprawled over eastern North America and a wavy frontal system in southern Canada / upper Lakes / central Plains. Scattered showers will fall in parts of the South each day. As the frontal system swings south and east, clouds and rain will follow suit, moving fron the north-central areas Monday into the Northeast and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s, with some cooler readings in the North on Tuesday.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the northern areas. Transport events are moving near-source and east to northeast each day. Conditions for epidemic spread become more favorable on Tuesday compared to Monday, due the sharpening front advancing into regions with CDM.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, August 21

Moderate Risk in northern FL, the FL panhandle, southern AL, southern GA, eastern SC, eastern MI, southern ON, OH, PA, and western NY. Low Risk for cucurbits in central AL and GA, central SC, the NC mountains, southeast NC, northern IN, MD, DE, NJ, Long Island, CT, western MA, and southeast and central NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, August 22

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in eastern KY, western WV, OH, eastern MI, western and northern PA, NY except the southeast, southern ON, southern QC, and northwest VTModerate Risk in FL, southern MS, central and southern AL, and southern 1/2 of GA, eastern SC, southeast NC, northern IN, central MI, central WV, western MD, southeast and eastern PA, northern NJ, southeast NY, Long Island, and all of New England. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern AL, central and western SC, western and central NC, southwest VA, eastern MD, DE, and southern NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, August 18, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 18 August: First report from Quebec; new reports from KY and AL. CDM has been confirmed in Les Maskoutains County, QE; Breathitt County, KY; and Blount County, AL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 16 August: First report from NH; new reports from OH and MI. CDM has been confirmed in Cheshire County, NH; St. Joseph County, MI; and Hardin, Montgomery, and Greene Counties, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Variable and unsettled; some drying on Sunday. A cold front is moving into the southern and eastern states accompanied by rain and showers. Unsettled weather continues Saturday and Sunday in the South with the front turning stationary there. Meanwhile, a secondary system in the central U.S. generates some rain or showers as it traverses the northern areas Friday and Saturday. Dry weather is forecast for many areas outside of the southern states on Sunday. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Northeast / southern QE. The most prominent day of the next 3 is today, Friday, with favorable conditions for epidemic spread in the Northeast U.S. / southeast Canada and in a few areas in the South. Slightly favorable to mixed conditions are observed in many other areas. The situation begins to calm on Saturday, with slightly favorable to mixed conditions for most transport events, and especially so by Sunday when the possbilities for long-range epidemic spread are confined to the southern areas.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, August 18

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, southern MS, northern VA, MD, DE, central and eastern PA, NJ, central and eastern NY, Long Island, New England except central and eastern ME, and southern Quebec. Moderate Risk in central and southern VA, NC, western SC, and central and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in the FL panhandle, southern AL, central and southern GA, central and eastern SC, southeast NC, northern WV, eastern OH, western PA, and western NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, August 19

Moderate Risk in the FL peninsula, southeast GA, eastern SC, eastern NC, southeast MI, OH, southern ON, western and west-central NY, western and central PA, northern WV, and western MD. Low Risk for cucurbits in southern MS, southern AL, the FL panhandle, southwest GA, eastern PA, and east-central NY. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, August 20

Moderate Risk in FL, southern MS, southern AL, southern GA, and eastern SC. Low Risk for cucurbits in south-central AL, west-central GA, and southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, August 16, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 16 August: First report from NH; new reports from OH and MI. CDM has been confirmed in Cheshire County, NH; St. Joseph County, MI; and Hardin, Montgomery, and Greene Counties, OH. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 14 August: New reports from NY and MI. CDM has been confirmed in Columbia and Tompkins Counties, NY; and Calhoun County, MI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Unsettled weather continues. Clouds and rain (central U.S.) and showers (Southeast) move north and east over the next several days as a large, extended frontal system impacts eastern North America. The Great Lakes / Northeast will be dry Wednesday before wetter weather arrives on Thursday. Highs in the 80s and 90s, lows in the 60s and 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the North (Thursday) and Southeast. A variety of conditions are forecast for the transport events coming out of the southern sources, the majority mixed to favorable. Intially unfavorable conditions in the northern areas on Wednesday will change to favorable as warm front approaches from the south and a low pressure / cold front approaches from the west. Transport events move near the sources and east on Wednesday, near-source and north on Thursday.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, August 16

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central MS, western AL, and the western FL panhandle. Moderate Risk in central and southern FL, eastern AL, eastern FL panhandle, western GA, the NC mountains, northeast SC, eastern NC, northern KY, southern OH, and northern WV. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, central GA, northwest SC, and the NC foothills. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, August 17

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern IN, MI, southern ON, central and northern OH, northern WV, central and western MD, PA, and the western 1/2 of NY. Moderate Risk in northeast KY, southern OH, far eastern PA, NJ, DE, eastern MD, VA except the southeast, western and central NC, SC, GA, AL, and FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in southern MS, eastern NC, and southeast VA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, August 14, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 14 August: New reports from NY and MI. CDM has been confirmed in Columbia and Tompkins Counties, NY; and Calhoun County, MI. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 11 August: First report from WV; new report from SC. CDM has been confirmed in Monongalia County, WV; and Marion County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Unsettled weather, especially southern and central U.S.. A stationary front in the south will lift slowly north. A second front lies east-to-west over the north-central states, heading east. Weakening high pressure is in the Northeast / southeast Canada. Numerous showers will fall in and around the fronts. Lesser wet weather, generally isolated to scattered showers, is expected toward the Northeast / southern Canada. Highs and lows mostly 80s and 90s / 60s and 70s, respectively.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic. Transport events move near the sources or to the east / northeast. Favorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition surround the transport events coming out of the southern areas. A variety of conditions will be found in the Ohio Valley / Great Lakes / Northeast.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, August 14

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern FL and the FL panhandle, central MS, AL, GA, SC, and NC, southern VA, and southeast WV. Moderate Risk in central and southern FL, central PA, and central NY. Low Risk for cucurbits in north-central KY, western and eastern PA, western NY, eastern VA, central and eastern MD, DE, and central and western NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, August 15

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in northern FL and the panhandle, central MS, central and southern AL, central and southern GA, SC, NC, VA except the northwest, eastern MD, DE, and southern NJ. Moderate Risk in central and southern FL, NY, VT, NH, MA, CT, and RI. Low Risk for cucurbits in south-central MI, northwest OH, southern ME, northern MD, central and eastern PA, northern NJ, and Long Island. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, August 11, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 11 August: First report from WV; new report from SC. CDM has been confirmed in Monongalia County, WV; and Marion County, SC. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 9 August: First report from IN. CDM has been confirmed in Starke County, IN. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Active weather. Two fronts ... one leaving the Atlantic Coast / Southeast, another in the central U.S. and moving south and east ... provide the impetus for more active weather in the central and eastern U.S. / southern Canada. Most areas will experience scattered-to-numerous / mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms. Some dry weather will be found in parts of TX and in the North (Saturday into Sunday). Highs in the 70s to 90s, lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread likely most areas. Environmental conditions will be favorable for epidemic spread in the southern states each day, in the eastern States Friday and Saturday, and in the Great Lakes on Friday. Very elevated risks are predicted for nearly all the cucurbits growing areas of interest on at least one day of the three. The lone exceptions are portions of the Ohio Valley and central United States. Transport events are tracking near the sources and to the northeast or east each day.

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, August 11

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in southern FL, the FL panhandle, central and southern MS, AL, GA except the southeast, western and coastal SC, western and eastern NC, all but south-central VA, DE, dMD, northern WV, central and northern OH, central and eastern MI, southern ON, PA, NJ, and NY except Long Island. Moderate Risk in central and northern FL, southeast GA, central SC, central NC, south-central VA, northern KY, southern OH, Long Island, New England except ME, and southern Quebec. Minimal Risk to cucurbits otherwise.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, August 12

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in FL, central and southern MS, central and southern AL, GA except the northwest, the Carolinas, eastern WV, VA, MD, DE, NJ, central and eastern PA, central and eastern NY, Long Island, CT, RI, central and western MA, VT, NH, and southern Quebec. Moderate Risk in western PA and western NY. Low Risk for cucurbits in eastern KY, western WV, eastern MA, and ME. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, August 13

HIGH Risk for cucurbits in central and northern FL, the FL panhandle, southern MS, central and southern AL, southern and eastern GA, SC, southern and eastern NC, and far southeast VA. Moderate Risk in southern FL, and northwest and north-central NC. Low Risk for cucurbits in southern VA, eastern MD, DE, far southeast PA, and NJ. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

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