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CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, November 3, 2017
 

*** Forecast Note - 3 November: Forecasts for the 2017 growing season have ended. Please let us know if you have any questions or comments! ***

*** Epidemic Update - 18 October: First report from IL. CDM has been confirmed in Kankakee County, IL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 13 October: First reports from TN and MO. CDM has been confirmed in Cocke County, TN; and Cole County, MO. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Southern United States

Variable weather with scattered showers some areas. A frontal system draped over the mid-South provides the focus for some showers, mainly in central sections of the mainland South. Expect more shower activity Friday and Saturday compared to Sunday. Warm most locations, with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows from the 50s to 70s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in a few areas. Conditions are such that some localized to short-range epidemic spread is possible in parts of the South each day. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, November 3

Low Risk for cucurbits in AL, most of MS, and near the east-TX sources. Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, November 4

Low Risk for cucurbits in southern FL, MS, AL, and northwest GA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Saturday, November 5

Low Risk for cucurbits in central and southern FL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, November 1, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 18 October: First report from IL. CDM has been confirmed in Kankakee County, IL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 13 October: First reports from TN and MO. CDM has been confirmed in Cocke County, TN; and Cole County, MO. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Unsettled east-central and north; dry elsewhere. A front shifts and meanders in the central U.S. while high pressure sits along the East Coast. Showers are probable near the front, mainly west of the mountains and in the North. Much of the Southeast and mid-Atlancitc are dry.  Highs in the 40s to 80s, lows from the 30s to 60s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread unlikely. Some disease developmemt is possible in the lower MS Valley. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, November 1

Moderate Risk for western MS, southeast AR, and far northeast LA. Low Risk for cucurbits in central and western AL, and eastern MS. Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, November 2

Low Risk for cucurbits in most of MS and in the northern 1/2 of AL. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Monday, October 30, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 18 October: First report from IL. CDM has been confirmed in Kankakee County, IL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 13 October: First reports from TN and MO. CDM has been confirmed in Cocke County, TN; and Cole County, MO. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Mostly dry. A new cold front enters the central and eastern U.S. as last week's system ejects into the Northeast / southeast Canada. There is not much precipitation associated with this front. There will be some rain / snow showers in the North, and clouds / rain moving into south-central U.S. on Tuesday. Highs in the 40s to 70s, lows in the 30s to 50s.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread quite unlikely. Any disease development early this week will be limited to locations near the sources toward the western side of the Gulf of Mexico. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Monday, October 30

Minimal Risk to cucurbits.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Tuesday, October 31

Low Risk for cucurbits near the sources in TX and southern LA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Friday, October 27, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 18 October: First report from IL. CDM has been confirmed in Kankakee County, IL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 13 October: First reports from TN and MO. CDM has been confirmed in Cocke County, TN; and Cole County, MO. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Strong Autumn cold front plows through eastern North America. Rain and showers will spread from east-central North America on Friday to eastern regions on Saturday. As the front pivots east and northeast, dry and cold weather returns to most areas on Sunday, with showers in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. Temperatures change markedly on either side of the front. Highs will be in the 60s to 80s and lows mostly in the 50s and 60s ahead of the front; temperatures behind will be some 20 degrees colder.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread possible in some areas. Fall temperatures and other factors are asserting themselves to the point where remaining chances of epidemic spread should be limited to areas in the deep South and along the Atlantic coast. Some spread in those regions is possible, more toward the South Friday and Saturday and in the East on Sunday. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Friday, October 27

Low Risk for cucurbits in MS, AL, western GA, and the western FL panhandle. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Saturday, October 28

Moderate Risk for central and southern FL. Low Risk for cucurbits in northern FL, the eastern panhandle, far southeast AL, and southern GA, eastern SC, and far southeast NC. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 3: Sunday, October 29

Low Risk for cucurbits in eastern sections of NC, VA, MD, and PA; and, NJ, DE, southeast NY, CT, western and central MA, southern VT and NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

CUCURBIT DOWNY MILDEW ipmPIPE

 

Cucurbit Downy Mildew Forecasts - Wednesday, October 25, 2017
 

*** Epidemic Update - 18 October: First report from IL. CDM has been confirmed in Kankakee County, IL. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

*** Epidemic Update - 13 October: First reports from TN and MO. CDM has been confirmed in Cocke County, TN; and Cole County, MO. Please view the Epidemic History for details. ***

 

Regional Weather: Eastern North America

Mostly dry during midweek. The cold front is moving off the East Coast but it will stall in the New England states. High pressure and dry weather have moved into eastern North America. A few weak disturbances and the lingering front will produce some showers activity in the northern areas. Highs from the 50s to 70s and lows from the 30s to 50s, with a warming trend.

 

OUTLOOK:

Overview: Epidemic spread very unlikely. Cold to very cold overnight temperatures in most regions will squash the chance for much spore production or later infection (during those few transport events when rain may fall). The only areas that could see some local disease development are near-coastal sections of New England and southern FL. 

Risk prediction map for Day 1: Wednesday, October 25

Low Risk for cucurbits in southern FL, eastern CT, RI, central MA, and southern NH. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Risk prediction map for Day 2: Thursday, October 26

Low Risk for cucurbits in eastern CT, RI, central and eastern MA. Minimal Risk to cucurbits elsewhere.

Forecaster: TK at NCSU for the Cucurbit ipmPIPE - 2017

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